085
FXUS62 KRAH 291823
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
223 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO EARLIER FORECASTS.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 223 PM MONDAY...
1) MINOR CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE REST OF TODAY, BUT
MOSTLY DRY TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
2) AFTER NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY/ONSHORE FLOW FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS, IT WILL TURN HOT MID TO LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 223 PM MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... MINOR CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE REST
OF TODAY, BUT MOSTLY DRY TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THAT CAUSED SOME OF THE
CONVECTION YESTERDAY, A LOW STRATUS DECK MOVED INTO CENTRAL NC
OVERNIGHT, WHICH PROCEEDED TO MIX OUT DUE TO RADIATIONAL HEATING.
ADDITIONALLY, THE RADIATIONAL HEATING IS HELPING TO DEVELOP THE
CUMULUS FIELD THAT IS SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST. EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CUMULUS FIELD ARE SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT ARE BRINGING TRACE/BARELY MEASURABLE AMOUNTS
OF RAIN INTO THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT. THESE SHOWERS ARE A RESULT OF
BOTH A SUBTLE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND A SURFACE CONVERGENCE
BAND LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF VIRGINIA. THESE VERY
SUBTLE FORCING MECHANISMS COMBINED WITH THE OVERALL SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRENGTHENING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR WEST ARE
PREVENTING STORMS FROM DEVELOPING TO THE EXTENT THEY HAVE OVER THE
LAST FEW DAYS. WHILE THE BEST CHANCE FOR STRONGER DEVELOPMENT OF
STORMS WOULD BE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN WHERE THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE MORE CONDUCIVE TO SUPPORT
DEVELOPMENT, HI-RES GUIDANCE AND 12Z HREF ARE SUGGESTING CONTINUED
ISOLATED SHOWERS AT BEST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. AS SUCH, THE
GREATEST AREA OF POPS HAVE BEEN DRAWN ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 00Z. FOLLOWING SUNSET, EXPECT ALL
SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE AS SURFACE INSTABILITY DIMINISHES.
PROGRESSING INTO TUESDAY, THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST, THUS SUPPRESSING THE CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION AND LEADING TO THE INCREASINGLY HOT TEMPERATURES THAT
WE WILL BE SEEING FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2... AFTER NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY/ONSHORE FLOW FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS, IT WILL TURN HOT MID TO LATE THIS WEEK AND
INTO THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND.
A STRONG MID AND UPPER-LEVEL HIGH/ANTICYCLONE, WITH STANDARDIZED
HEIGHT ANOMALIES FORECAST TO REACH 3-4 SIGMA, WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED FROM THE OH AND TN VALLEYS EARLY TO MID WEEK AND SRN
MIDDLE ATLANTIC BY THE END OF THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND BREAK DOWN OVER THE CAROLINAS BY INDEPENDENCE
DAY, THE UNDERLYING AIRMASS WILL PROBABLY NOT COOL MUCH UNTIL
CONVECTION AND DIABATIC COOLING ARE INTRODUCED, POSSIBLY SAT
AFTERNOON BUT MORE LIKELY ON SUN.
HISTORICALLY, THE MOST SIGNIFICANT HEAT WAVES IN CNTL NC OCCUR WHEN
THE POSITION OF THE RIDGE IS CENTERED FROM THE TN VALLEY TO THE SRN
APPALACHIANS. IN THIS CASE, WHILE STRONG, THE POSITION OF THE RIDGE
TO THE NORTH OF THE LATITUDE OF CNTL NC FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL
FAVOR THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES FROM VA AND NJ TO THE SRN NEW ENGLAND
COAST, WHILE TROPOSPHERIC-DEEP ELY FLOW WILL LIKELY PREVAIL OVER
CNTL NC - AT LEAST UNTIL THE RIDGE DAMPENS AND YIELDS A LIGHT WLY
COMPONENT BY INDEPENDENCE DAY. IN FACT, THE ONLY MATCH IN THE CIPS
ANALOGS FOR ALL-TIME RECORD HIGHS (SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW) IS
WHEN 08/09/2007 IS THE 13TH BEST MATCH ON SAT, WHEN THE RIDGE BREAKS
DOWN AND WLY FLOW ALOFT RESULTS.
IT WILL NONETHELESS TURN HOT ESPECIALLY BY THU AND HOTTEST FRI-SAT,
WHEN HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER
100S. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REACH BETWEEN 100 AND 110 DEGREES. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS CONTINUES TO
DISPLAY A SIGNIFICANT HIGH BIAS, WITH WIDESPREAD 102-106 VALUES FOR
SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE DAYS DURING THE PERIOD, INCLUDING OVER THE NW
PIEDMONT WHERE GSO AVERAGES A SINGLE 100 DEGREE DAY EVERY 5-10
YEARS.
A SEA BREEZE MAY PROVIDE SLIGHT RELIEF TO THE HEAT EACH EVENING,
WITH AN ISOLATED CELL OR TWO AND OUTFLOW AT BEST INVOF A WRN
PIEDMONT SURFACE TROUGH UNTIL THE RIDGE WEAKENS/DAMPENS OVER THE
WEEKEND AND PRECIP/CONVECTIVE/COOLING CHANCES INCREASE.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 120 PM MONDAY...
A FEW SITES AROUND CENTRAL NC REMAIN WITH AN MVFR CIG AT THIS HOUR,
BUT OTHERWISE MOST OF THE AREA, INCLUDING THE 5 TAF SITES, HAVE HAD
CIGS IMPROVE TO VFR. VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DOMINATE THROUGH
AT LEAST 06Z TONIGHT, WITH MOSTLY SCT-BKN VFR STRATOCU STREAMING
INTO CENTRAL NC FROM THE N AND NE. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON UP TO 22Z, HIGHEST CHANCE AT RWI, BUT CHANCES ARE LOW
OVERALL AND MOST SITES WILL REMAIN DRY. AFTER 06Z TONIGHT, SCT-BKN
STRATOCU WILL REDEVELOP ESP AT INT/GSO AND FAY, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH AS TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF CIGS, AND MOST CIGS IF THEY
OCCUR WILL BE VFR. THE ATMOSPHERE JUST OFF THE SURFACE WILL BE DRIER
IN THE NE (RDU/RWI), YIELDING AN EVEN LOWER CHANCE OF MVFR STRATOCU
BUT A HIGHER CHANCE OF MVFR VSBYS IN SHALLOW GROUND FOG LATE
TONIGHT, 08Z-13Z. ANY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY 15Z
TUE. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH 23Z AND EVEN
LIGHTER TONIGHT/TUE, MAINLY FROM THE NE OR ENE.
LOOKING BEYOND 18Z TUE, AS STRONG RIDGING SLOWLY BUILDS FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY, OUR CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL REMAIN VERY LOW THROUGH SAT, WITH VFR CONDITIONS
DOMINATING.
CLIMATE
ALL-TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORD AND MOST RECENT DATE OF
OCCURRENCE:
KGSO: 104/1914-07-27
KRDU: 106/2024-07-05
KFAY: 110/1983-08-21
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
JULY 1: KGSO: 99/2012
JULY 2: KGSO: 98/1954 KRDU: 101/1954
JULY 3: KGSO: 98/1911 KRDU: 101/2012 KFAY: 102/2019
JULY 4: KGSO: 98/1970 KRDU: 101/9999 KFAY: 98/2019
JULY 5: KGSO: 98/2012 KRDU: 106/2024 KFAY: 101/9999
ALL-TIME HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORD AND MOST RECENT DATE
OF OCCURRENCE:
KGSO: 80/2007-08-09
KRDU: 80/2025-07-18
KFAY: 84/1928-06-22
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
JULY 2: KGSO: 76/2018 KRDU: 78/1931 KFAY: 77/1931
JULY 3: KGSO: 76/2018 KRDU: 79/2023 KFAY: 76/2023
JULY 4: KGSO: 73/2018 KRDU: 79/1902 KFAY: 78/1913
JULY 5: KGSO: 74/1999 KRDU: 78/2024 KFAY: 77/2005
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...WEGMANN/MWS
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
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