642
FXUS62 KRAH 291859
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
300 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO EARLIER FORECASTS.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...
1) MINOR CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE REST OF TODAY, BUT
MOSTLY DRY TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
2) A SIGNIFICANT HEAT WAVE EXPECTED FROM MID WEEK THROUGH THE
UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... MINOR CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE REST
OF TODAY, BUT MOSTLY DRY TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THAT CAUSED SOME OF THE
CONVECTION YESTERDAY, A LOW STRATUS DECK MOVED INTO CENTRAL NC
OVERNIGHT, WHICH PROCEEDED TO MIX OUT DUE TO RADIATIONAL HEATING.
ADDITIONALLY, THE RADIATIONAL HEATING IS HELPING TO DEVELOP THE
CUMULUS FIELD THAT IS SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST. EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CUMULUS FIELD ARE SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT ARE BRINGING TRACE/BARELY MEASURABLE AMOUNTS
OF RAIN INTO THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT. THESE SHOWERS ARE A RESULT OF
BOTH A SUBTLE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND A SURFACE CONVERGENCE
BAND LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF VIRGINIA. THESE VERY
SUBTLE FORCING MECHANISMS COMBINED WITH THE OVERALL SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRENGTHENING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR WEST ARE
PREVENTING STORMS FROM DEVELOPING TO THE EXTENT THEY HAVE OVER THE
LAST FEW DAYS. WHILE THE BEST CHANCE FOR STRONGER DEVELOPMENT OF
STORMS WOULD BE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN WHERE THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE MORE CONDUCIVE TO SUPPORT
DEVELOPMENT, HI-RES GUIDANCE AND 12Z HREF ARE SUGGESTING CONTINUED
ISOLATED SHOWERS AT BEST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. AS SUCH, THE
GREATEST AREA OF POPS HAVE BEEN DRAWN ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 00Z. FOLLOWING SUNSET, EXPECT ALL
SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE AS SURFACE INSTABILITY DIMINISHES.
PROGRESSING INTO TUESDAY, THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST, THUS SUPPRESSING THE CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION AND LEADING TO THE INCREASINGLY HOT TEMPERATURES THAT
WE WILL BE SEEING FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2... A SIGNIFICANT HEAT WAVE EXPECTED FROM MID WEEK
THROUGH THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
WITH GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS AND ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS ON THE OVERALL
PATTERN, CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS STARTING THIS WEEK, WITH THE PEAK OF THE
DANGEROUS HEAT OCCURRING FRI/SAT. STRONG (~5970 M) BLOCKED RIDGING
THROUGH THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS IS ALREADY BUILDING FROM THE GULF
STATES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES, AND THIS
RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE W-E-ORIENTED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
AND MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. THE SURFACE HIGH NOSING
INTO CENTRAL NC FROM THE NNE WILL DRIFT SE THEN S OUT OVER THE NW
ATLANTIC DURING THIS TIME, WHICH WOULD NORMALLY RESULT IN INCREASING
E/SE ONSHORE FLOW INTO NC BRINGING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS, HOWEVER THE
PRESENCE OF A SURFACE LOW AND TROUGH FROM OFF THE CAROLINAS ACROSS N
FL WILL LIKELY HELP LIMIT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO CENTRAL
NC MID-LATE WEEK, WHILE COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AND DRYING ALOFT WILL
LIMIT HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDINESS. DEEP MIXING IS EXPECTED DAILY, WHICH
WILL HELP CURB AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS AND HUMIDITY A BIT. BUT WITH
STRONG DAYTIME INSOLATION FROM THU THROUGH AT LEAST SAT, GENERALLY
LIGHT WINDS, AND 850 MB TEMPS EXPECTED TO PEAK AT 23-25C (IN THE
95TH+ PERCENTILE AND VERY CLOSE TO AN ALL-TIME RECORD 850 MB TEMP AT
GSO), DANGEROUS HEAT REMAINS QUITE LIKELY. METRICS SUCH AS WET BULB
GLOBE TEMPERATURE (WHICH FACTORS IN TEMP, HUMIDITY, SUN INTENSITY,
AND BREEZE) AND THE NWS EXPERIMENTAL HEAT RISK (WHICH TELLS HOW
UNUSUAL THE HEAT IS AND HOW IT CORRELATES WITH HEAT ILLNESS) BOTH
SUGGEST A SIGNIFICANT HEALTH AND INFRASTRUCTURE IMPACT, ESPECIALLY
FOR THOSE WHO DON'T TAKE PRECAUTIONS. THE EXTENDED DURATION OF THIS
HEAT WAVE WILL ALSO DRAMATICALLY INCREASE THE HEAT ILLNESS THREAT,
AND LOWS BARELY DROPPING BELOW 80F IN MANY AREAS WILL NOT ALLOW THE
BODY TO COOL OFF. AIR TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE UPPER 90S TO
AROUND 100F THU AND 98-105F FRI/SAT. CONFIDENCE IN HIGH TEMPS
DECREASES BY SUN/MON AS THE CORE OF THE MID-UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO
WEAKEN, WHILE PIEDMONT TROUGHING FORMS AND LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE S
AND SW INCREASES. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO IMPROVED MOISTURE FLUX AND A
RETURN TO LATE-DAY SHOWER/STORM CHANCES BOTH DAYS, AND TEMPS COULD
BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES LOWER AS A RESULT, ALTHOUGH HIGHER DEWPOINTS
COULD MEAN SIMILAR HEAT INDEX VALUES, MEANING MINIMAL RELIEF
OVERALL.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 120 PM MONDAY...
A FEW SITES AROUND CENTRAL NC REMAIN WITH AN MVFR CIG AT THIS HOUR,
BUT OTHERWISE MOST OF THE AREA, INCLUDING THE 5 TAF SITES, HAVE HAD
CIGS IMPROVE TO VFR. VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DOMINATE THROUGH
AT LEAST 06Z TONIGHT, WITH MOSTLY SCT-BKN VFR STRATOCU STREAMING
INTO CENTRAL NC FROM THE N AND NE. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON UP TO 22Z, HIGHEST CHANCE AT RWI, BUT CHANCES ARE LOW
OVERALL AND MOST SITES WILL REMAIN DRY. AFTER 06Z TONIGHT, SCT-BKN
STRATOCU WILL REDEVELOP ESP AT INT/GSO AND FAY, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH AS TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF CIGS, AND MOST CIGS IF THEY
OCCUR WILL BE VFR. THE ATMOSPHERE JUST OFF THE SURFACE WILL BE DRIER
IN THE NE (RDU/RWI), YIELDING AN EVEN LOWER CHANCE OF MVFR STRATOCU
BUT A HIGHER CHANCE OF MVFR VSBYS IN SHALLOW GROUND FOG LATE
TONIGHT, 08Z-13Z. ANY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY 15Z
TUE. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH 23Z AND EVEN
LIGHTER TONIGHT/TUE, MAINLY FROM THE NE OR ENE.
LOOKING BEYOND 18Z TUE, AS STRONG RIDGING SLOWLY BUILDS FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY, OUR CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL REMAIN VERY LOW THROUGH SAT, WITH VFR CONDITIONS
DOMINATING.
CLIMATE
ALL-TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORD AND MOST RECENT DATE OF
OCCURRENCE:
KGSO: 104/1914-07-27
KRDU: 106/2024-07-05
KFAY: 110/1983-08-21
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
JULY 1: KGSO: 99/2012
JULY 2: KGSO: 98/1954 KRDU: 101/1954
JULY 3: KGSO: 98/1911 KRDU: 101/2012 KFAY: 102/2019
JULY 4: KGSO: 98/1970 KRDU: 101/9999 KFAY: 98/2019
JULY 5: KGSO: 98/2012 KRDU: 106/2024 KFAY: 101/9999
ALL-TIME HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORD AND MOST RECENT DATE
OF OCCURRENCE:
KGSO: 80/2007-08-09
KRDU: 80/2025-07-18
KFAY: 84/1928-06-22
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
JULY 2: KGSO: 76/2018 KRDU: 78/1931 KFAY: 77/1931
JULY 3: KGSO: 76/2018 KRDU: 79/2023 KFAY: 76/2023
JULY 4: KGSO: 73/2018 KRDU: 79/1902 KFAY: 78/1913
JULY 5: KGSO: 74/1999 KRDU: 78/2024 KFAY: 77/2005
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...WEGMANN/HARTFIELD
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
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