788
FXUS62 KRAH 301050
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
650 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...
1) IT WILL BECOME PROGRESSIVELY HOTTER THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY,
THEN LESS SO WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF CONVECTION SUN AND
MON.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... IT WILL BECOME PROGRESSIVELY HOTTER THROUGH
INDEPENDENCE DAY, THEN LESS SO WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF CONVECTION
SUN AND MON.
A STRONG MID AND UPPER-LEVEL HIGH/ANTICYCLONE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
TN AND OH VALLEYS, THEN PROGRESS ACROSS AND OFFSHORE THE SOUTHERN
MIDDLE ATLANTIC LATE WEEK THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
HISTORICALLY, THE MOST SIGNIFICANT HEAT WAVES IN CNTL NC OCCUR WHEN
THE POSITION OF THE RIDGE IS CENTERED FROM THE TN VALLEY TO THE SRN
APPALACHIANS. IN THIS CASE, WHILE STRONG, THE POSITION OF THE RIDGE
TO THE NORTH OF THE LATITUDE OF CNTL NC FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL
FAVOR THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES FROM VA AND NJ TO THE SRN NEW ENGLAND
COAST, WHILE TROPOSPHERIC-DEEP ELY FLOW WILL LIKELY PREVAIL OVER
CNTL NC - AT LEAST UNTIL THE RIDGE DAMPENS AND YIELDS A LIGHT WLY
COMPONENT BY INDEPENDENCE DAY.
IT WILL NONETHELESS TURN HOT LATER THIS WEEK AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM
MOSTLY MID 90S WED, TO MID TO UPR 90S ON THU, THEN UPR 90S TO LWR
100S FRI-SAT. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER AT
TIMES BUT NOT EXCESSIVE, GIVEN ONLY MODEST AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS
DURING THE PERIOD, REGULATED BY MIXED DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S, TO EVEN
50S POSSIBLE OVER THE WRN PIEDMONT ON SAT. IN FACT, WITH NON-NBM,
HIGH-BIASED TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS REFLECTED WITH THIS FORECAST
CYCLE, FORECAST HEAT INDEX VALUES REMAIN BELOW 105 EXCEPT FOR JUST
MARGINALLY ABOVE IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AND NORTHEAST PIEDMONT FRI-
SUN. AS SUCH, NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.
ALTHOUGH THE RIDGING ALOFT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND BREAK DOWN OVER
THE CAROLINAS BY INDEPENDENCE DAY, THE UNDERLYING AIRMASS WILL
PROBABLY NOT COOL MUCH UNTIL CONVECTION AND DIABATIC COOLING ARE
INTRODUCED SUN AND MON, WITH ADDED COOLING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A
BACKDOOR SURFACE FRONTAL PASSAGE BY MON.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 650 AM TUESDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: ONCE ANY LINGERING FOG CLEARS AND VSBYS RETURN
TO VFR THIS MORNING, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY PREVAIL THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER, THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY SUB-VFR VSBYS
EARLY WED MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME NELY AREA-WIDE
TODAY, THEN DECREASE AND VEER TO MORE SELY AFTER SUNSET. THERE COULD
BE A STRAY SHOWER OR ISOLATED STORM NEAR KINT THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
PROBS ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS WILL LARGELY PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.
CLIMATE
ALL-TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORD AND MOST RECENT DATE OF
OCCURRENCE:
KGSO: 104/1914-07-27
KRDU: 106/2024-07-05
KFAY: 110/1983-08-21
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
JULY 1: KGSO: 99/2012
JULY 2: KGSO: 98/1954 KRDU: 101/1954
JULY 3: KGSO: 98/1911 KRDU: 101/2012 KFAY: 102/2019
JULY 4: KGSO: 98/1970 KRDU: 101/9999 KFAY: 98/2019
JULY 5: KGSO: 98/2012 KRDU: 106/2024 KFAY: 101/9999
ALL-TIME HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORD AND MOST RECENT DATE
OF OCCURRENCE:
KGSO: 80/2007-08-09
KRDU: 80/2025-07-18
KFAY: 84/1928-06-22
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
JULY 2: KGSO: 76/2018 KRDU: 78/1931 KFAY: 77/1931
JULY 3: KGSO: 76/2018 KRDU: 79/2023 KFAY: 76/2023
JULY 4: KGSO: 73/2018 KRDU: 79/1902 KFAY: 78/1913
JULY 5: KGSO: 74/1999 KRDU: 78/2024 KFAY: 77/2005
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...MWS
AVIATION...10
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