205
FXUS62 KRAH 301649
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1249 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...
1) IT WILL BECOME PROGRESSIVELY HOTTER THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY,
THEN LESS SO WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF CONVECTION SUN AND
MON.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... IT WILL BECOME PROGRESSIVELY HOTTER THROUGH
INDEPENDENCE DAY, THEN LESS SO WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF CONVECTION
SUN AND MON.
A STRONG MID AND UPPER-LEVEL HIGH/ANTICYCLONE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
TN AND OH VALLEYS, THEN PROGRESS ACROSS AND OFFSHORE THE SOUTHERN
MIDDLE ATLANTIC LATE WEEK THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
HISTORICALLY, THE MOST SIGNIFICANT HEAT WAVES IN CNTL NC OCCUR WHEN
THE POSITION OF THE RIDGE IS CENTERED FROM THE TN VALLEY TO THE SRN
APPALACHIANS. IN THIS CASE, WHILE STRONG, THE POSITION OF THE RIDGE
TO THE NORTH OF THE LATITUDE OF CNTL NC FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL
FAVOR THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES FROM VA AND NJ TO THE SRN NEW ENGLAND
COAST, WHILE TROPOSPHERIC-DEEP ELY FLOW WILL LIKELY PREVAIL OVER
CNTL NC - AT LEAST UNTIL THE RIDGE DAMPENS AND YIELDS A LIGHT WLY
COMPONENT BY INDEPENDENCE DAY.
IT WILL NONETHELESS TURN HOT LATER THIS WEEK AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM
MOSTLY MID 90S WED, TO MID TO UPR 90S ON THU, THEN UPR 90S TO LWR
100S FRI-SAT. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER AT
TIMES BUT NOT EXCESSIVE, GIVEN ONLY MODEST AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS
DURING THE PERIOD, REGULATED BY MIXED DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S, TO EVEN
50S POSSIBLE OVER THE WRN PIEDMONT ON SAT. IN FACT, WITH NON-NBM,
HIGH-BIASED TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS REFLECTED WITH THIS FORECAST
CYCLE, FORECAST HEAT INDEX VALUES REMAIN BELOW 105 EXCEPT FOR JUST
MARGINALLY ABOVE IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AND NORTHEAST PIEDMONT FRI-
SUN. AS SUCH, NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.
ALTHOUGH THE RIDGING ALOFT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND BREAK DOWN OVER
THE CAROLINAS BY INDEPENDENCE DAY, THE UNDERLYING AIRMASS WILL
PROBABLY NOT COOL MUCH UNTIL CONVECTION AND DIABATIC COOLING ARE
INTRODUCED SUN AND MON, WITH ADDED COOLING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A
BACKDOOR SURFACE FRONTAL PASSAGE BY MON.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 1249 PM TUESDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL NC
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. SOME VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN PIEDMONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON
ALTHOUGH THEY SHOULD REMAIN AWAY FROM INT/GSO AND SHOULD BE OF NO
IMPACT. WHAT BKN/OVC CLOUD COVER EXISTS ACROSS THE TRIAD SITES
SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET, FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THEREAFTER. WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE
PERIOD, BECOMING LIGHT/VRB OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. A
POTENTIAL RETURN TO MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE THIS
WEEKEND WITH LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS IN CIGS/VSBYS WHERE STORMS DEVELOP.
CLIMATE
ALL-TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORD AND MOST RECENT DATE OF
OCCURRENCE:
KGSO: 104/1914-07-27
KRDU: 106/2024-07-05
KFAY: 110/1983-08-21
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
JULY 1: KGSO: 99/2012
JULY 2: KGSO: 98/1954 KRDU: 101/1954
JULY 3: KGSO: 98/1911 KRDU: 101/2012 KFAY: 102/2019
JULY 4: KGSO: 98/1970 KRDU: 101/9999 KFAY: 98/2019
JULY 5: KGSO: 98/2012 KRDU: 106/2024 KFAY: 101/9999
ALL-TIME HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORD AND MOST RECENT DATE
OF OCCURRENCE:
KGSO: 80/2007-08-09
KRDU: 80/2025-07-18
KFAY: 84/1928-06-22
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
JULY 2: KGSO: 76/2018 KRDU: 78/1931 KFAY: 77/1931
JULY 3: KGSO: 76/2018 KRDU: 79/2023 KFAY: 76/2023
JULY 4: KGSO: 73/2018 KRDU: 79/1902 KFAY: 78/1913
JULY 5: KGSO: 74/1999 KRDU: 78/2024 KFAY: 77/2005
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...MWS
AVIATION...LEINS
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