472
FXUS62 KRAH 010625
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
225 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* NOTHING APPRECIABLE
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 225 AM WEDNESDAY...
1) IT WILL BECOME PROGRESSIVELY HOTTER THROUGH AT LEAST FRI-SAT,
THEN AT LEAST A LITTLE LESS SO WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF CONVECTION
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 225 AM WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... IT WILL BECOME PROGRESSIVELY HOTTER THROUGH AT
LEAST FRI-SAT, THEN AT LEAST A LITTLE LESS SO WITH INCREASING
CHANCES OF CONVECTION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CRITERIA AND ISSUANCE TIMES FOR HEAT-RELATED PRODUCTS, PER NWS
DIRECTIVE 10-515 AND ACCOMPANYING ER SUPPLEMENT 02-2011, ARE AS
FOLLOWS:
EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH: 110 F OR MORE FOR AT LEAST TWO CONSECUTIVE
DAYS AND INTERVENING MINT OF 77 F OR MORE, TYPICALLY ISSUED AT 36-72
HOURS
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING: 110 OR MORE FOR AT LEAST TWO CONSECUTIVE
DAYS AND INTERVENING MINT OF 77 F OR MORE, TYPICALLY ISSUED 1ST OR
2ND PERIOD, OR AT 12-36 HOURS
HEAT ADVISORY: 105 F OR MORE FOR TWO CONSECUTIVE HOURS, TYPICALLY
ISSUED FOR 1ST OR 2ND PERIOD (IE. TODAY, TONIGHT, ETC), OR AT 12-36
HOURS
AN ALREADY STRONG MID AND UPPER-LEVEL HIGH/ANTICYCLONE, CENTERED
OVER THE TN AND OH VALLEYS WITH OBSERVED 500 AND 700 MB HEIGHTS OF
596 AND 325 DAM, RESPECTIVELY, WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY ACROSS AND
OFFSHORE THE SOUTHERN MIDDLE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND,
WHILE WEAKENING.
HISTORICALLY, THE MOST SIGNIFICANT HEAT WAVES IN CNTL NC OCCUR WHEN
THE POSITION OF THE RIDGE IS CENTERED FROM THE TN VALLEY TO THE SRN
APPALACHIANS, IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM OF, AND AT A SIMILAR TO SLIGHTLY
LOWER LATITUDE THAN CNTL NC. IN THIS CASE, THE POSITION OF THE
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE FROM THE LWR OH VALLEYS TO THE VIRGINIAS
WILL FAVOR THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH OF CNTL NC, FROM VA
AND NJ TO THE SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST, WHILE MOSTLY ELY FLOW
EQUATORWARD OF THE HIGH WILL PREVAIL OVER CNTL NC.
IT WILL NONETHELESS BE HOT THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL
GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 100 AND 110 BUT NOT BECOME TOO EXCESSIVE
GIVEN ONLY MODEST AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS DURING THE PERIOD,
REGULATED BY MIXED DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S, TO EVEN 50S POSSIBLE OVER
THE WRN PIEDMONT FRI AND SAT. ALTHOUGH THE RIDGING ALOFT IS FORECAST
TO WEAKEN AND BREAK DOWN OVER THE CAROLINAS BY INDEPENDENCE DAY,
THEN DRIFT OFFSHORE AND ACROSS THE SWRN N. ATLANTIC, THE UNDERLYING
AIRMASS WILL PROBABLY NOT COOL MUCH UNTIL CONVECTION AND DIABATIC
COOLING ARE INTRODUCED SUN AND ESPECIALLY MON. IF SHOWER/STORM
COVERAGE REMAINS LIMITED THROUGH SUN, TEMPERATURES COULD BE
COMPARABLY AS HOT AS PREVIOUS DAYS, THEREBY PROLONGING THE HOTTEST
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE ENTIRETY OF THE WEEKEND.
WITH THE ABOVE CRITERIA IN MIND, AND WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST HEAT
INDEX VALUES REMAINING SUB-110 F THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD,
EXCEPT FOR A FEW PIXELS IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AND AT RDU THIS
WEEKEND, INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS WILL PROBABLY BE A MULTI-DAY HEAT
ADVISORY EVENT, WITH SUCH ADVISORIES PROBABLY ISSUED A DAY IN
ADVANCE.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 140 AM WEDNESDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY PREVAIL THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER, SOME ISOLATED AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS ARE
POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN THE SOUTH AND EAST. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT AND SLY (SSWLY TO SELY) THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS WILL LARGELY PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST SAT. A
POTENTIAL RETURN TO MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE THIS
WEEKEND WITH LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS IN CIGS/VSBYS WHERE STORMS DEVELOP.
CLIMATE
ALL-TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORD AND MOST RECENT DATE OF
OCCURRENCE:
KGSO: 104/1914-07-27
KRDU: 106/2024-07-05
KFAY: 110/1983-08-21
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
JULY 1: KGSO: 99/2012
JULY 2: KGSO: 98/1954 KRDU: 101/1954
JULY 3: KGSO: 98/1911 KRDU: 101/2012 KFAY: 102/2019
JULY 4: KGSO: 98/1970 KRDU: 101/9999 KFAY: 98/2019
JULY 5: KGSO: 98/2012 KRDU: 106/2024 KFAY: 101/9999
ALL-TIME HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORD AND MOST RECENT DATE
OF OCCURRENCE:
KGSO: 80/2007-08-09
KRDU: 80/2025-07-18
KFAY: 84/1928-06-22
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
JULY 2: KGSO: 76/2018 KRDU: 78/1931 KFAY: 77/1931
JULY 3: KGSO: 76/2018 KRDU: 79/2023 KFAY: 76/2023
JULY 4: KGSO: 73/2018 KRDU: 79/1902 KFAY: 78/1913
JULY 5: KGSO: 74/1999 KRDU: 78/2024 KFAY: 77/2005
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...MWS
AVIATION...10/LEINS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page