281
FXUS62 KRAH 020643
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
240 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 240 AM THURSDAY...
1) A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON UNTIL 8 PM TODAY FOR AREAS
ROUGHLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-95.
2) HEAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND --EXCEPT FOR IN AND AROUND
ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED PIEDMONT TROUGH CONVECTION/OUTFLOW-- THEN
GRADUALLY LESSEN WITH BOTH INCREASING CHANCES OF CONVECTION AND THE
PASSAGE OF AN OUTFLOW-MODULATED AND REINFORCED BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
TUE-WED.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 240 AM THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON UNTIL 8 PM
TODAY FOR AREAS ROUGHLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-95.
TODAY WILL BE THE FIRST OF SEVERAL DAYS IN AN EXTENDED HEAT WAVE.
FOR EACH OF THE NEXT FIVE DAYS, IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT SOMEWHERE IN
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WILL REACH AT LEAST 100 DEGREES. FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY STILL APPEAR LIKELY TO BE THE HOTTEST DAYS IN THIS STRETCH.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PUMP WARM,
MOIST AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE REGION. NO CHANGES WERE MADE
TO THE HEAT ADVISORY THAT WAS INHERITED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST,
WHICH IS GENERALLY IN EFFECT TO THE WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR.
MULTIPLE OTHER HEAT-RELATED POINTS WORTH MENTIONING INCLUDE:
- ADDITIONAL HEAT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ON MULTIPLE DAYS.
- THE GREATEST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE PROLONGED DURATION OF THE
HEAT RATHER THAN ANY SINGLE EXCEPTIONALLY HOT DAY, ALTHOUGH DAILY
RECORD HIGHS ARE LIKELY TO BE BROKEN. CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF EXCESSIVE
HEAT AND WARM NIGHTS COMPOUND IMPACTS.
- OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S,
PROVIDING LIMITED NOCTURNAL RECOVERY, ALLOWING CUMULATIVE HEAT
STRESS TO INCREASE AS THE EVENT PROGRESSES.
- THE EXPERIMENTAL NWS HEAT RISK PRODUCT INDICATES MAJOR HEAT RISK
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH EXTREME
HEAT RISK POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY AND LINGERING INTO MONDAY.
(WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEATRISK)
- WHILE ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION (PARTICULARLY FROM SUNDAY ON)
MAY PROVIDE LOCALIZED AND TEMPORARY RELIEF, COVERAGE APPEARS
INSUFFICIENT TO SIGNIFICANTLY MITIGATE THE OVERALL HEAT HAZARD.
- FINALLY, THE HIGHEST RISK WILL BE FOR THOSE WITHOUT EFFECTIVE
COOLING, INDIVIDUALS OUTDOORS, AND OTHER HEAT-SENSITIVE POPULATIONS
AS THE PROLONGED STRETCH OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUES INTO
NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2... HEAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND --EXCEPT FOR
IN AND AROUND ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED PIEDMONT TROUGH
CONVECTION/OUTFLOW-- THEN GRADUALLY LESSEN WITH BOTH INCREASING
CHANCES OF CONVECTION AND THE PASSAGE OF AN OUTFLOW-MODULATED AND
REINFORCED BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TUE-WED.
AN ANOMALOUSLY-STRONG MID-LEVEL HIGH/ANTICYCLONE, CENTERED WITH
OBSERVED 500 AND 700 MB HEIGHTS OF 597 AND 325 DAM, RESPECTIVELY,
OVER THE LWR OH VALLEY, WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND INTO THE SWRN N. ATLANTIC THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND, WHILE WEAKENING. AS IT DOES SO, A FEW TUTT-LIKE UPPER-LEVEL
VORTICITY CENTERS, EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE AND 300-150 MB
UPR AIR CHARTS FROM OFF THE NRN FL ATLANTIC COAST NWWD INTO THE TN
VALLEY, WILL TRACK ALONG THE NWRN PERIPHERY OF THE WEAKENING AND
EQUATORWARD-RETREATING RIDGE AND ACROSS THE SRN MIDDLE ATLANTIC
THROUGH SAT OR SAT NIGHT. STRENGTHENING WSWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL
THEN RESULT EARLY NEXT WEEK, BETWEEN THE OFFSHORE RIDGE AND A
POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH FORECAST TO PROGRESS FROM THE UPR MS VALLEY
TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC. RELATED FALLING HEIGHTS ON THE LARGER-SCALE
WILL FAVOR BROAD LIFT AND ADIABATIC COOLING/DESTABLIZATION, WHILE
THE ASSOCIATED WSWLY FLOW REGIME WILL ALSO OPEN THE DOOR TO THE
PROGRESSION OF MCVS FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION ACROSS NC.
DESPITE THE WEAKENING AND OFFSHORE PROGRESSION OF THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE, THE UNDERLYING, SUBSIDENCE-HEATED AIRMASS WILL REMAIN UNTIL
CONVECTION AND DIABATIC COOLING ARE INTRODUCED - IN ISOLATED/WIDELY
SCATTERED COVERAGE ALONG THE PIEDMONT TROUGH THIS WEEKEND, THEN WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED FALLING HEIGHTS/ADIABATIC COOLING AND WITH
GREATER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ALONG OUTFLOW AND AN OUTFLOW-MODULATED
AND REINFORCED BACKDOOR COLD FRONT EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
AS SUCH, PERSISTENCE HEAT WILL CONTINUE AWAY FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED
CONVECTION THROUGH AT LEAST SUN, WHEN HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PEAK OWING TO RICHER/DEEPER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE (IE.
HIGHER SFC/MIXED DEWPOINTS), FOLLOWED BY A GRADUALLY LESS HOT AND
ALSO UNSETTLED/WETTER REGIME EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 240 AM THURSDAY...
TAF PERIOD: HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT WIND SHOULD HAVE A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT
THROUGHOUT.
OUTLOOK: THE FORECAST CALLS FOR DRY VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. BY SATURDAY NIGHT, THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN, AND THIS COULD ALLOW FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ON SUNDAY AND GREATER COVERAGE ON MONDAY. ANYWHERE THAT
PRECIPITATION DOES OCCUR, THERE WILL BE HIGHER CHANCES FOR
FOG/STRATUS RESTRICTIONS THE FOLLOWING MORNING.
CLIMATE
ALL-TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORD AND MOST RECENT DATE OF
OCCURRENCE:
KGSO: 104/1914-07-27
KRDU: 106/2024-07-05
KFAY: 110/1983-08-21
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
JULY 2: KGSO: 98/1954 KRDU: 101/1954
JULY 3: KGSO: 98/1911 KRDU: 101/2012 KFAY: 102/2019
JULY 4: KGSO: 98/1970 KRDU: 101/TWICE KFAY: 98/2019
JULY 5: KGSO: 98/2012 KRDU: 106/2024 KFAY: 101/TWICE
JULY 6: KGSO: 100/1977 KRDU: 102/1999 KFAY: 100/2024
ALL-TIME HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORD AND MOST RECENT DATE
OF OCCURRENCE:
KGSO: 80/2007-08-09
KRDU: 80/2025-07-18
KFAY: 84/1928-06-22
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
JULY 2: KGSO: 76/2018 KRDU: 78/1931 KFAY: 77/1931
JULY 3: KGSO: 76/2018 KRDU: 79/2023 KFAY: 76/2023
JULY 4: KGSO: 73/2018 KRDU: 79/1902 KFAY: 78/1913
JULY 5: KGSO: 74/1999 KRDU: 78/2024 KFAY: 77/2005
JULY 6: KGSO: 76/1999 KRDU: 79/1900 KFAY: 77/2024
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NCZ007>011-021>027-038>041-073>076-083-084.
DISCUSSION...GREEN/MWS/NP/LH
AVIATION...GREEN
CLIMATE...RAH
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