636
FXUS62 KRAH 030518
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
115 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...
1) HEAT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT TODAY AND FRIDAY. DANGEROUS HEAT
WILL PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND AND INTO
MONDAY.
2) MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH BETTER RAIN CHANCES
RETURNING TO START THE WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...HEAT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT TODAY AND FRIDAY.
DANGEROUS HEAT WILL PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH AT LEAST THE
WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY.
THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF DANGEROUS HEAT HAS BEGUN AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
REMAINS CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
SYNOPTIC FEATURE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AFTERNOON HIGHS A FEW DEG EITHER SIDE OF 100 ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY, BEFORE HIGHS FALL BACK TO THE LOWER TO MID
90S BY TUESDAY. WITH DWPTS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S, AFTERNOON
HEAT INDICES WILL RANGE FROM 103-108 ALSO THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.
BY LATE MONDAY, WE EXPECT AN INCREASE IN BOTH CLOUDS AND RAIN
CHANCES, ALONG WITH A BACKDOOR FRONT THAT MAY PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
BY LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY, WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL
CLOSER TO CLIMO READINGS BY MID-WEEK. GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED, A
HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM TODAY FOR AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR...AND A NEW HEAT ADVISORY HAS RECENTLY
BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF CENTRAL NC FOR FRIDAY FROM NOON UNTIL 8 PM.
OTHER HEAT-RELATED POINTS:
- OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S,
PROVIDING LIMITED NOCTURNAL RECOVERY, ALLOWING CUMULATIVE HEAT
STRESS TO INCREASE AS THE EVENT PROGRESSES.
- THE GREATEST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE PROLONGED DURATION OF THE
HEAT RATHER THAN ANY SINGLE EXCEPTIONALLY HOT DAY. CONSECUTIVE DAYS
OF EXCESSIVE HEAT AND WARM NIGHTS COMPOUND IMPACTS.
- THE EXPERIMENTAL NWS HEAT RISK PRODUCT INDICATES MAJOR HEAT RISK
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH EXTREME
HEAT RISK POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY AND LINGERING INTO MONDAY.
(WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEATRISK)
- WHILE ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION (PARTICULARLY FROM SUNDAY ON)
MAY PROVIDE LOCALIZED AND TEMPORARY RELIEF, COVERAGE APPEARS
INSUFFICIENT TO SIGNIFICANTLY MITIGATE THE OVERALL HEAT HAZARD.
- ADDITIONAL HEAT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ON MULTIPLE DAYS,
AND PORTIONS OF THE AREA COULD APPROACH EXTREME HEAT WARNING
CRITERIA SHOULD TEMPERATURES TREND A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER OR
HUMIDITY REMAIN HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
- FINALLY, THE HIGHEST RISK WILL BE FOR THOSE WITHOUT EFFECTIVE
COOLING, INDIVIDUALS WORKING OR RECREATING OUTDOORS, AND OTHER HEAT-
SENSITIVE POPULATIONS AS THE PROLONGED STRETCH OF ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2... MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH BETTER RAIN
CHANCES RETURNING TO START THE WORK WEEK.
AS THE DEEP HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC, RAIN CHANCES
SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE BEST CHANCE OF
A SHOWER OR STORM THIS WEEKEND WILL BE IN THE NORTHWEST OFF OF THE
PIEDMONT TROUGH, HOWEVER IF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS ABLE TO FORM
THIS WEEKEND, IT WILL BE VERY ISOLATED AND BRIEF IN NATURE. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD START TO BREAK DOWN LATE WEEKEND, ALLOWING
RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE STARTING ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER, SUNDAY'S RAIN
CHANCES LOOK TO BE DECREASING, WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN NEAR
THE NC/VA BORDER DUE TO THE BEST SHORTWAVE FORCING BEING LOCATED IN
VIRGINIA. AS THE HIGH WEAKENS FURTHER AT THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK, A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AND MAY STALL OVER CENTRAL NC. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOONS WITH DIURNAL HEATING. HOWEVER, ENSEMBLE DATA IS STILL
SUGGESTING GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.25 INCH OF RAIN EACH DAY.
AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 115 AM FRIDAY...
TAF PERIOD: WITH NO CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS, A PERSISTENCE FORECAST
SHOULD WORK WELL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN FEW
TO SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS BETWEEN 5K AND 7K FEET DURING THE
DAYTIME AND CLEAR SKIES AT NIGHT. WIND WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE
SOUTH, WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES DURING THE DAYTIME.
OUTLOOK: DRY VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY.
AFTER THAT, A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST, BRINGING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD,
WITH THE GREATEST PRECIPITATION COVERAGE ON MONDAY.
CLIMATE
ALL-TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORD AND MOST RECENT DATE OF
OCCURRENCE:
KGSO: 104/1914-07-27
KRDU: 106/2024-07-05
KFAY: 110/1983-08-21
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
JULY 3: KGSO: 98/1911 KRDU: 101/2012 KFAY: 102/2019
JULY 4: KGSO: 98/1970 KRDU: 101/TWICE KFAY: 98/2019
JULY 5: KGSO: 98/2012 KRDU: 106/2024 KFAY: 101/TWICE
JULY 6: KGSO: 100/1977 KRDU: 102/1999 KFAY: 100/2024
ALL-TIME HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORD AND MOST RECENT DATE
OF OCCURRENCE:
KGSO: 80/2007-08-09
KRDU: 80/2025-07-18
KFAY: 84/1928-06-22
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
JULY 3: KGSO: 76/2018 KRDU: 79/2023 KFAY: 76/2023
JULY 4: KGSO: 73/2018 KRDU: 79/1902 KFAY: 78/1913
JULY 5: KGSO: 74/1999 KRDU: 78/2024 KFAY: 77/2005
JULY 6: KGSO: 76/1999 KRDU: 79/1900 KFAY: 77/2024
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR NCZ007>011-
021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.
DISCUSSION...NP/LH
AVIATION...GREEN
CLIMATE...RAH
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