412
FXUS62 KRAH 031023 CCA
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
620 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* HEAT ADVISORY UPGRADED TO EXTREME HEAT WARNING FOR NORTHERN
COUNTIES.
* HEAT ADVISORY AND EXTREME HEAT WARNING EXTENDED THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 210 AM FRIDAY...
1) DANGEROUS HEAT WILL PERSIST AND INTENSIFY ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
2) MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THEN BETTER
RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO START THE WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 210 AM FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... DANGEROUS HEAT WILL PERSIST AND INTENSIFY ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
THURSDAY WAS JUST THE FIRST DAY OF THE HEAT WAVE ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA, WITH GREENSBORO REACHING 100 DEGREES FOR THE FIRST
TIME SINCE 2012. WITH A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINING OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES, AIR TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. CONSIDERING THAT
SEVERAL NC ECONET SITES REACHED EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING CRITERIA (110
DEGREE HEAT INDEX) ON THURSDAY, WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A HEAT
WARNING FOR SEVERAL COUNTIES BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW. IT IS SOMEWHAT
UNUSUAL THAT THE DEWPOINTS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS THE SOUTH,
AND THEREFORE HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL NOT BE QUITE AS HIGH THERE, SO
THE WARNING WILL BE FOR NORTHERN COUNTIES, WHILE THE ADVISORY WILL
BE EXTENDED INTO SATURDAY FOR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THE THREAT WILL BE
COMPOUNDED BY THE OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THAT WILL BE OCCURRING OVER THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. EXPECT WIDESPREAD HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 100
DEGREES TODAY, WITH TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER ON SATURDAY. HIGHS
WILL BEGIN TO COME DOWN SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY
AS PRECIPITATION COVERAGE INCREASES.
OTHER HEAT-RELATED POINTS:
- OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S,
PROVIDING LIMITED NOCTURNAL RECOVERY, ALLOWING CUMULATIVE HEAT
STRESS TO INCREASE AS THE EVENT PROGRESSES.
- THE GREATEST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE PROLONGED DURATION OF THE
HEAT RATHER THAN ANY SINGLE EXCEPTIONALLY HOT DAY. CONSECUTIVE DAYS
OF EXCESSIVE HEAT AND WARM NIGHTS COMPOUND IMPACTS.
- THE EXPERIMENTAL NWS HEAT RISK PRODUCT INDICATES MAJOR TO EXTREME
HEAT RISK TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. (WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEATRISK)
- WHILE ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION (PARTICULARLY FROM SUNDAY ON)
MAY PROVIDE LOCALIZED AND TEMPORARY RELIEF, COVERAGE APPEARS
INSUFFICIENT TO SIGNIFICANTLY MITIGATE THE OVERALL HEAT HAZARD.
- ADDITIONAL HEAT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
- FINALLY, THE HIGHEST RISK WILL BE FOR THOSE WITHOUT EFFECTIVE
COOLING, INDIVIDUALS WORKING OR RECREATING OUTDOORS, AND OTHER HEAT-
SENSITIVE POPULATIONS AS THE PROLONGED STRETCH OF ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2... MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, THEN BETTER RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO START THE WORK WEEK.
APART FROM PERHAPS AN ISOLATED CELL OR TWO, THE ANOMALOUSLY STRONG
BLOCKING RIDGE SITTING OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL KEEP
US DRY AND LARGELY INSULATED FROM DEEP MOISTURE FLUX, AS BULK SHEAR
REMAINS VERY LOW. THIS RIDGE WILL FINALLY WEAKEN, FLATTEN, AND DRIFT
SOUTH LATE IN THE WEEKEND, ALLOWING THE WESTERLIES TO DIP SOUTHWARD
AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. ONE VERY WEAK MID LEVEL
TROUGH DEVELOPS FROM THE LOWER MISS VALLEY OVER TN AND THE MID SOUTH
SAT NIGHT, BUT THE MORE PROMINENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
DIG OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE SAT BEFORE SLOWLY DRIFTING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES THROUGH MON AND INTO THE NORTHEAST TUE. THE STILL-WEAK
BUT IMPROVING (AND INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC) MID LEVEL FLOW BY LATE SUN
INTO MON SHOULD ALLOW LATE-DAY CONVECTION OVER THE NC MOUNTAINS TO
DRIFT E INTO THE SHARPENING IN SITU PIEDMONT TROUGH, WHILE OLD
OUTFLOWS FROM ANTICIPATED CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES OVER THE MIDWEST,
LOWER GREAT LAKES, AND OHIO VALLEY MAY ALSO PUSH SE INTO THE NC
PIEDMONT AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. SHOWER/STORM CHANCES
APPEAR GREATEST MON/TUE, EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING, WITH PW
150% OF NORMAL. SEVERE CHANCES APPEAR MODEST, GIVEN THAT MID LEVEL
FLOW REMAINS UNDER 25 KTS WITH MOSTLY SUB-1500 J/KG SBCAPE, ALTHOUGH
DCAPE COULD BE SIGNIFICANT WITH THESE EXPECTED THERMAL-MOISTURE
PROFILES. THEN, AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AFFILIATED WITH THE
NORTHEAST SHORTWAVE TROUGH POTENTIALLY DIPS INTO NC BY WED, WE MAY
SEE A DROP IN POPS BACK TOWARD MORE CLIMATOLOGICAL COVERAGE, OR AT
LEAST A PUSH IN HIGHER POPS TO OUR SOUTHERN HALF, BUT CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF DRIVING FEATURES WITHIN THIS OTHERWISE STILL-WEAK
SUMMERTIME STEERING FLOW IS LOW.
AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 620 AM FRIDAY...
TAF PERIOD: WITH NO CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS, A PERSISTENCE FORECAST
SHOULD WORK WELL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN FEW
TO SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS BETWEEN 5K AND 7K FEET DURING THE
DAYTIME AND CLEAR SKIES AT NIGHT. WIND WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE
SOUTH, WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES DURING THE DAYTIME.
OUTLOOK: DRY VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY.
AFTER THAT, A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST, BRINGING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD,
WITH THE GREATEST PRECIPITATION COVERAGE ON MONDAY.
CLIMATE
ALL-TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORD AND MOST RECENT DATE OF
OCCURRENCE:
KGSO: 104/1914-07-27
KRDU: 106/2024-07-05
KFAY: 110/1983-08-21
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
JULY 3: KGSO: 98/1911 KRDU: 101/2012 KFAY: 102/2019
JULY 4: KGSO: 98/1970 KRDU: 101/TWICE KFAY: 98/2019
JULY 5: KGSO: 98/2012 KRDU: 106/2024 KFAY: 101/TWICE
JULY 6: KGSO: 100/1977 KRDU: 102/1999 KFAY: 100/2024
ALL-TIME HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORD AND MOST RECENT DATE
OF OCCURRENCE:
KGSO: 80/2007-08-09
KRDU: 80/2025-07-18
KFAY: 84/1928-06-22
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
JULY 3: KGSO: 76/2018 KRDU: 79/2023 KFAY: 76/2023
JULY 4: KGSO: 73/2018 KRDU: 79/1902 KFAY: 78/1913
JULY 5: KGSO: 74/1999 KRDU: 78/2024 KFAY: 77/2005
JULY 6: KGSO: 76/1999 KRDU: 79/1900 KFAY: 77/2024
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
NCZ007>011-021>028-038>041-043.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ042-
073>078-083>086-088-089.
DISCUSSION...GREEN/GIH
AVIATION...GREEN
CLIMATE...RAH
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