491
FXUS62 KRAH 190104
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
905 PM EDT SAT JUL 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING HAS GREATLY DIMINISHED.
* HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT APPEARS PROBABLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 905 PM SATURDAY...
1) A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY.
2) MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY. A HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT IS ALSO POSSIBLE SUNDAY.
3) SEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID SUMMER PATTERN WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONTINUING THROUGH MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 905 PM SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
AREA SUNDAY.
AFTER A HOT DAY TODAY WITH HEAT INDICES REACHING 105-109F OVER MUCH
OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC, ANOTHER HEAT
ADVISORY MAY LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR A SIMILAR REGION OF THE TRIANGLE,
SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN SUN, WITH PROJECTED
HEAT INDICES OF 102 TO 107 DEGREES PRIOR TO STORM DEVELOPMENT.
KEY MESSAGE 2... MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY. A
HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT IS ALSO POSSIBLE SUNDAY.
ON SUNDAY, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE STARTING OUT IN THE
LOWER OH VALLEY AND VA, SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTH INTO THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT TO EARLY MONDAY. A LEE TROUGH WILL STILL REMAIN PRESENT. BOTH
OF THESE SURFACE FEATURES SHOULD AID MORE COVERAGE OF STORMS, AND
CAMS SUGGEST AN EARLIER INITIATION IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON, PEAKING IN
THE EVENING, BUT PERHAPS LINGERING INTO PORTIONS OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS THE BOUNDARY SETTLES ALONG/NEAR THE US-64 CORRIDOR. SIMILAR
TO TODAY, STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN SLIGHTLY
HIGHER SHEAR AND SIMILAR THERMODYNAMICS. A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT IS
ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN HIGH PW'S AROUND 2 INCHES AND FLOW NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY.
KEY MESSAGE 3... SEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID SUMMER PATTERN WITH
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUING THROUGH MIDWEEK.
A STALLED BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH ACTIVE WEATHER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL GRADUALLY WASHOUT AND GIVE WAY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH CENTRAL NC REMAINING ON THE WARM AND UNSTABLE
SIDE OF THE SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE. RELATIVELY LOWER HEIGHTS ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST, ALONG WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHEAST GULF, SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED PERIODS OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY, BEFORE A
STRONGER SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO A DEEPER UPPER TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION. A BETTER SEVERE THREAT MAY
UNFOLD WEDNESDAY WITH THE FRONT AND WHAT SHOULD BE RATHER STRONG MID-
LEVEL FLOW IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH, ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL PATTERN
OF MULTI-DAY SHOWERS/STORMS AND OVERTURNING LENDS SOME UNCERTAINTY
TO THE THREAT.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES SEEM REASONABLE MON-WED AS
PW REMAINS ANOMALOUSLY HIGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST, DUE IN PART TO THE
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OR LOW THAT MODELS HAVE BEEN INDICATING WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF BY SUNDAY. HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL DEPEND ON WHERE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE MORE ROBUST, WITH MODELS
GENERALLY FAVORING EASTERN NC.
AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 715 PM SATURDAY...
TAF PERIOD: THE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION HAS DROPPED DRASTICALLY
BETWEEN 21-23Z, AND THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER ANY
ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL MANAGE TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN. CONSIDERING
THERE ARE STILL ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, HAVE MAINTAINED THE
TEMPO/PROB30 GROUPS AT RDU/RWI THIS EVENING, BUT HAVE REMOVED THE
PROB30 GROUP FROM FAY AS NO THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MANAGED TO DEVELOP
THAT FAR SOUTH YET. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT,
ALTHOUGH THE PROB30 MENTION WAS KEPT IN FAY AROUND SUNRISE FOR A
POTENTIAL DROP IN CONDITIONS. A WEST-SOUTHWEST WIND WILL DEVELOP
LATE SUNDAY MORNING, AND WITH GREATER COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTERNOON, HAVE ONCE AGAIN ADDED PROB30 GROUPS AT
ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR FAY, WHERE THE BETTER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AFTER 00Z.
OUTLOOK: AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SUNDAY THAT LINGERS INTO MONDAY
SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AREAS OF STRATUS OR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
MORNING MON-WED. AFTER A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN STORMS TUESDAY, A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL RISK ADDITIONAL STORMS WEDNESDAY.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
JULY 19:
KFAY: 101/2002
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
JULY 19:
KGSO: 75/2016
KRDU: 80/1942
KFAY: 77/2023
JULY 20:
KGSO: 75/2019
KRDU: 76/2025
JULY 21:
KGSO: 76/2011
KRDU: 78/1932
KFAY: 80/2017
JULY 22:
KGSO: 77/2011
KRDU: 78/2011
KFAY: 82/2017
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...KREN/BLS/GIH
AVIATION...GREEN/KREN
CLIMATE...RAH
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