480
FXUS62 KRAH 190610
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
210 AM EDT SUN JUL 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY,
EXCEPT FOR PORTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT. TIMING IS 11 AM THROUGH
800 PM.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 210 AM SUNDAY...
1) A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY,
EXCEPT PORTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT. TIMING IS 11 AM THROUGH 800
PM.
2) MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS TODAY. A HEAVY
RAINFALL THREAT IS POSSIBLE.
3) CONTINUED PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER THIS WEEK AS A
STALLED FRONT LINGERS ACROSS NC.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 210 AM SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION TODAY, EXCEPT PORTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT. TIMING IS 11 AM
THROUGH 800 PM.
YET ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TODAY. IT IS
GENERALLY IN THE SAME LOCATIONS THAT HAD ONE ON SATURDAY. ACTUAL
HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES LOWER TODAY; HOWEVER, DEW POINTS
WILL BE HIGHER. ACTUAL HIGHS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE MID 90S, WITH
DEW POINTS WELL UP INTO THE 70S. THIS WILL YIELD APPARENT
TEMPERATURES IN THE 105-107 RANGE FOR SEVERAL HOURS. TIMING OF
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY BE LATER TODAY, GIVEN THE LATEST
TRENDS. THIS WOULD GIVE MORE TIME OF SUN AND HEAT BEFORE WE GET
CONVECTIVELY OVERTURNED LATER OR THIS EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 2... MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY. A
HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT IS ALSO POSSIBLE SUNDAY.
ON SUNDAY, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE STARTING OUT IN THE
LOWER OH VALLEY AND VA, SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTH INTO THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT TO EARLY MONDAY. A LEE TROUGH WILL STILL REMAIN PRESENT. BOTH
OF THESE SURFACE FEATURES SHOULD AID MORE COVERAGE OF STORMS, AND
CAMS SUGGEST AN EARLIER INITIATION IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON, PEAKING IN
THE EVENING, BUT PERHAPS LINGERING INTO PORTIONS OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS THE BOUNDARY SETTLES ALONG/NEAR THE US-64 CORRIDOR. SIMILAR
TO TODAY, STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN SLIGHTLY
HIGHER SHEAR AND SIMILAR THERMODYNAMICS. A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT IS
ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN HIGH PW'S AROUND 2 INCHES AND FLOW NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY.
KEY MESSAGE 3... CONTINUED PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER THIS
WEEK AS A STALLED FRONT LINGERS ACROSS NC.
THE FRONT THAT WILL BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA
ON SUNDAY WILL STALL ON MONDAY, SERVING AS THE FOCAL POINT FOR
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. PW'S
WILL REMAIN AT OR JUST ABOVE 2" WHICH IS WELL ABOVE THE 90TH
PERCENTILE FOR MID JULY, AND PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CAN'T BE
RULED OUT ONCE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON EVENING.
EVENTUALLY THE FRONT ITSELF WILL WASH OUT ON TUESDAY ALTHOUGH WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND A PIEDMONT TROUGH REMAINING IN PLACE,
CONVECTION WILL REMAIN LIKELY TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MEANWHILE,
AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS
WEDNESDAY WITH AN ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT IN TOW. WITH PW'S
STILL AT OR NEAR 2" AND NEARLY 2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE AVAILABLE, STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS ARE MORE THAN PLAUSIBLE WITH THE FRONT.
SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER PW'S WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT WITH SUBSTANTIALLY
LOWER PRECIP CHANCES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 205 AM SUNDAY...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE WELL INTO TODAY. THERE
IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON, AND MORE LIKELY
AROUND 600 PM THROUGH THE EVENING TONIGHT. WE WILL HAVE
PROB30 MENTION FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH AN
UPTICK THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK: AREAS OF STRATUS OR FOG ARE EXPECTED AFTER 06Z TONIGHT,
WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING FROM THE NE OVERNIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK
TO IFR OR LIFR. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
MIDWEEK WITH ASSOCIATED LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS AT TIMES. THERE
WILL ALSO BE LOW STRATUS AND FOG LATE NIGHT AND MORNING AS WELL.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
JULY 19:
KFAY: 101/2002
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
JULY 19:
KGSO: 75/2016
KRDU: 80/1942
KFAY: 77/2023
JULY 20:
KGSO: 75/2019
KRDU: 76/2025
JULY 21:
KGSO: 76/2011
KRDU: 78/1932
KFAY: 80/2017
JULY 22:
KGSO: 77/2011
KRDU: 78/2011
KFAY: 82/2017
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR NCZ008>010-024>028-040>043-075>078-083>086-088-089.
DISCUSSION...BADGETT/DL
AVIATION...BADGETT
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