549
FXUS62 KRAH 201912
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
310 PM EDT MON JUL 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR THE SEVERE OR FLASH FLOODING THREAT OVER THE
NEXT 3 DAYS.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 310 PM MONDAY...
1) A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.
2) WILL UPDATE SHORTLY.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 310 PM MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.
A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR BOTH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL/FLASH FLOODING IS IN EFFECT ACROSS CENTRAL NC
TODAY. AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MCVS WILL
PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE, LINGERING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE NC/VA BORDER WILL INTERACT WITH
GOOD DIURNAL HEATING AND THE HUMID AIRMASS WITH PWATS OF ~2.0 INCHES
WILL CONTINUE TO TRIGGER MULTI-CELL CLUSTER STORMS ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH DOWNBURST AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING FROM
SLOW-MOVING OR TRAINING STORMS. AREAS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR STRONGER SLOW
MOVING STORMS THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. AFTER THE STORMS
DISSIPATE AND THE FRONT LIFTS TO THE NORTH INTO VA, EXPECT LOW
STRATUS CLOUDS TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE CLEARING SKIES EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2... WILL UPDATE SHORTLY.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...
VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL START OFF THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL
NC TERMINALS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS AND SCT/BKN MID
LEVEL CLOUD DECKS. SCATTERED STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA AND AROUND ALL THE TERMINALS. EXPECT THIS THIS
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. VCTS AND VCSH ARE
PREVAILING FOR EACH TAF SITE WITH STORMS EXPECTED TO BE ON AND OFF
THROUGH AT LEAST 2Z OR 3Z.
FOR OVERNIGHT & EARLY TUESDAY POST-CONVECTIVE STABILIZATION WILL
LEAD TO WIDESPREAD REGIONAL FLIGHT CATEGORY DETERIORATION. HAVE
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT OF IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS WITH LOW
STRATUS DEVELOPING ALONG WITH ISOLATED AREAS OF VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS. ADDITIONALLY, A WEAK LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS THE AREA COULD
CAUSE LLWS AROUND 1500-2000FT WITH 25–35 KTS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS
BETWEEN ROUGHLY 04Z AND 12Z.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE IN THE MORNING WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS 5-10 KT. LIFR/IFR STRATUS AND LLWS WILL DISSIPATE ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS BY 14Z, RETURNING CENTRAL NC TO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE 18Z PERIOD.
OUTLOOK: AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH LATE WEEK WILL RESULT
PERIODS OF VFR AND PERIODS OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...CA
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