221
FXUS62 KRAH 232124
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
520 PM EDT THU JUL 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* THE SEVERE THREAT HAS ENDED ACROSS THE REGION, AND THE THREAT FOR
SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING WILL RETURN TONIGHT, THIS TIME ACROSS
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 500 PM THURSDAY...
1) AN AXIS OF SHOWERS STORMS WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY SSEWD ACROSS
CENTRAL NC THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY, WITH AN ASSOCIATED RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAIN MAINLY SOUTH OF US-64.
2) THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT PIVOTING BACK NW MAY RESULT IN ANOTHER
HEAVY RAIN THREAT ON FRIDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEASTERN PARTS
OF THE AREA.
3) AFTER ANOTHER COOL AND RAINY DAY SATURDAY, THE CHANCE OF RAIN
WILL DECREASE AND TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NORMAL LATE JULY
VALUES.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 500 PM THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... AN AXIS OF SHOWERS STORMS WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY
SSEWD ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY, WITH AN ASSOCIATED
RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAIN MAINLY SOUTH OF US-64.
THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT HAS NOW MOSTLY CLEARED OUR REGION AND IS
DRAPED NEAR THE SC/NC BORDER. WHILE RICH GULF MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL
STORM BERTHA CONTINUES TO FUNNEL NE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT,
WITH PW VALUES OF 2-2.4 INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL NC, MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION IS NOW ON THE COOL/STABLE SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY WHERE
SURFACE WINDS ARE FROM THE NE AND DEW POINTS ARE DROPPING INTO THE
60S. SPC MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS MARGINAL SBCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT, SANDHILLS, AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN, WITH PLENTY OF CIN AS WELL. SO RAINFALL RATES HAVE
COME DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY FROM WHERE THEY WERE THIS MORNING, AND THIS
RELATIVE LULL IN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING. NORTH OF THERE IN THE STABLE REGIME, ONLY SOME PATCHY
LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE. TEMPERATURES HAVE
UNDERPERFORMED GUIDANCE DUE TO THE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION, GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE UPPER-60S TO MID-70S. THE
CURRENT HIGH OF 73F AT GSO WOULD TIE THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE FOR THE DATE IF IT HOLDS, WHILE THE CURRENT HIGH OF 74F
AT RDU WOULD BREAK THE DAILY RECORD LOW MAXIMUM OF 76F.
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, HIGH-RES GUIDANCE DEPICTS THE
BOUNDARY MAY LIFT SLIGHTLY BACK NORTH AGAIN, WITH ANOTHER WAVE OF
CONVECTION RIDING ALONG IT. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE FRONT SHOULD STILL BE
PRETTY FAR SOUTH, WEAKER INSTABILITY COMPARED TO THIS MORNING SHOULD
LIMIT RAINFALL RATES SOMEWHAT FOR MOST OF THE REGION. THERE COULD BE
STILL BE SOME HEAVY RATES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT, SANDHILLS,
AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN, WHERE A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 9 AM FRIDAY. BUT THE SANDY SOILS AND LITTLE RAINFALL THAT HAD
FALLEN IN THOSE AREAS BEFORE THIS AFTERNOON HAVE KEPT FFG RELATIVELY
HIGH, AND 12Z HREF PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING FFG ARE LESS IN THE
SOUTH TONIGHT THAN THEY WERE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH. THUS WPC
DROPPED THE MODERATE (LEVEL 3 OF 4) RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND
NOW HAS A SLIGHT (LEVEL 2 OF 4) RISK ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
ADDITIONAL QPF FROM WPC THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING IS IN THE 1-2 INCH
RANGE ON AVERAGE ACROSS THIS REGION, BUT LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE. 12Z HREF LPMM DEPICTS POTENTIAL FOR VERY LOCAL AMOUNTS
AS HIGH AS 4-6+ INCHES, WHICH WOULD CERTAINLY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE
ISSUES IF IT FALLS IN AN URBAN AREA LIKE FAYETTEVILLE OR WHERE HEAVY
RAIN ALREADY FELL TODAY. NO MAINSTEM RIVERS ARE FORECAST TO REACH
MINOR FLOOD STAGE AT THIS TIME, BUT IT CAN'T BE RULED OUT ALONG THE
NEUSE, PARTICULARLY AT SMITHFIELD WHERE THE CURRENT FORECAST REACHES
JUST BELOW FLOOD STAGE ON FRIDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2... THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT PIVOTING BACK NW MAY
RESULT IN ANOTHER HEAVY RAIN THREAT ON FRIDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN
SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
THE COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN PINNED NEAR THE SOUTHERN NC COAST DURING
THE DAY ON FRIDAY, WHICH SHOULD HELP A RELATIVE LULL IN
PRECIPITATION OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL NC DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES INTO THE PIEDMONT, COOL NE
FLOW WILL PREVAIL IN A CAD REGIME, WITH WIDESPREAD STABILITY AND
MAINLY PLACES AGAIN NOT GETTING OUT OF THE 70S. PATCHY LIGHT RAIN
AND DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW TRACKING TO OUR SOUTH
AND EAST LOOK TO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR ASCENT ON FRIDAY
NIGHT AND HELP THE BOUNDARY PIVOT BACK NW AGAIN INTO OUR REGION.
MOISTURE WILL RETURN WITH 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS CREEPING BACK IN
AND PW VALUES INCREASING TO 2-2.5 INCHES. HOW FAR NW THE BOUNDARY IS
ABLE TO GET IS STILL UNCERTAIN, BUT THE 12Z HREF DEPICTS INCREASING
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING FFG ONCE AGAIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH
LOCALIZED LPMM TOTALS AS HIGH AS 1-3 INCHES. GIVEN ALL THE RAIN THAT
WILL HAVE ALREADY FALLEN UP TO THAT POINT, FLOODING MAY BE A RENEWED
CONCERN, AND WPC HAS THE SE HALF OF OUR AREA IN A SLIGHT (LEVEL 2 OF
4) RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
KEY MESSAGE 3... AFTER ANOTHER COOL AND RAINY DAY SATURDAY, THE
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL DECREASE AND TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NORMAL
LATE JULY VALUES.
THE STATIONARY FRONT SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHERE ALONG THE NORTH
CAROLINA/SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER ON SATURDAY, KEEPING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE
SOUTH. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN, JUST AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY, AND MONDAY APPEARS TO BE
THE FIRST WIDESPREAD DAY OF DRY WEATHER IN SEVERAL DAYS. AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER DURING THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK, THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT COULD MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS
THE CAROLINAS, BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
SATURDAY WILL BE YET ANOTHER COOL DAY, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
MID 70S TO THE MID 80S. A RETURN TO SUNNY SKIES ON SUNDAY, HOWEVER,
SHOULD BRING A WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE 80S
EVERYWHERE, AND HIGHS WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES IN THE LOW
TO MID 90S MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...
24-HOUR TAF PERIOD: AN AXIS OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER NOW
EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT, SANDHILLS, AND
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN, REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS RDU AND
RWI. RAINFALL RATES HAVE DECREASED COMPARED TO THIS MORNING, AND A
RELATIVE LULL IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER, WIDESPREAD IFR TO MVFR
CEILINGS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NC DURING THIS TIME.
BRIEF LIFTING TO VFR WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING IN THE FAR
NORTH NEAR THE VA BORDER, INCLUDING AT INT/GSO, AS DRIER AIR WORKS
ITS WAY IN. CAN'T TOTALLY RULE IT OUT AT RDU AND RWI EITHER, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THERE, AND NOCTURNAL COOLING WILL QUICKLY BRING
WIDESPREAD IFR (AND POSSIBLY LIFR) CEILINGS BACK IN OVERNIGHT.
ANOTHER WAVE OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
REGION LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, GENERALLY SOUTH OF US-64.
WHILE RDU AND RWI WILL BE RIGHT ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF IT, FAY
HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF MORE HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDER WITH IFR/LIFR
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE. THIS SHOULD LARGELY EXIT THE REGION AFTER
12Z, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER RELATIVE LULL IN PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY
MORNING. CEILINGS WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT IN A CAD REGIME, WITH IFR
STILL EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK: COLD AIR DAMMING TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE FRONTS WILL
FAVOR CONTINUED IFR-MVFR CEILINGS (LOWEST ON FRIDAY NIGHT) AND
POSSIBLY SOME PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN OVER CNTL NC FRIDAY-SATURDAY.
SOME CONTINUED ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL ALSO CONTINUE AT FAY AND
POSSIBLY RWI DURING THAT TIME, PARTICULARLY ON FRIDAY NIGHT, IN
RELATIVELY CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE STALLED FRONT AND INSTABILITY
AXIS. MOSTLY VFR IS THEN EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH MAINLY JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
CLIMATE
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES:
JULY 23: KGSO: 73/2019 KRDU: 76/1921
JULY 24: KFAY: 81/1985
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR NCZ007>011-021>028-
038>041.
FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR NCZ042-043-073>078-083>086-088-089.
DISCUSSION...DANCO/BLAES/GREEN
AVIATION...DANCO/MWS
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