216
FXUS62 KRAH 241128
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
728 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* THE FLOOD WATCH HAS EXPIRED FOR THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT AND NRN
COASTAL PLAIN.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...
1) WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN COLD AIR DAMMING WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED THROUGH TONIGHT
BY ADDITIONAL WAVES OF ELEVATED CONVECTION AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
2) BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND, EXPECT A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL LATE
JULY WEATHER, WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 AND MOSTLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN COLD AIR DAMMING
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
THROUGH TONIGHT BY ADDITIONAL WAVES OF ELEVATED CONVECTION AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
"OVERRUNNING" LIFT/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE, ATOP A SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE
DRAPED FROM FAR SERN NC WSWWD ACROSS THE CNTL SAVANNAH BASIN AND TN
VALLEY, WILL MAINTAIN WIDESPREAD OVERCAST AND MIXED CHARACTER RAIN
(IE. A COMBINATION OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AND EMBEDDED SHOWERS)
THROUGH TONIGHT AND ALSO SUPPORT AT LEAST A COUPLE OF WAVES OF
DEEPER ELEVATED CONVECTION AND RELATED LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THE FIRST
WAVE OF ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL FOCUS THIS MORNING OVER SRN NC,
WHERE 925 MB WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY NEAREST
THE FRONTAL ZONE TO THE SOUTH WILL BE MAXIMIZED. THE SECOND WILL BE
RELATED TO THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE TONIGHT OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
PERTURBATION APPROACHING FROM MO. THE LATTER FEATURE MAY YIELD A
COUPLE OF AREAS OF CONCENTRATED, HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS, INCLUDING
AGAIN ACROSS SRN NC WHERE MUCAPE AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
MAXIMIZED, BUT ALSO POSSIBLY OVER THE NW PIEDMONT, WHERE LPMM FIELDS
DEPICT A SECONDARY MAXIMUM. AN EXTENSION IN TIME OF THE FLOOD WATCH
THAT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SRN NC WILL BE CONSIDERED, AS WILL THE
ISSUANCE OF A NEW WATCH FOR A PORTION OF THE NRN PIEDMONT LATER
TODAY SHOULD MODEL AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A
SECONDARY MAXIMUM MAY INDEED RESULT THERE.
IT WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN UNSEASONABLY MILD, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
AROUND 10 F BELOW AVERAGE IN THE AFOREMENTIONED CAD OVERCAST AND
PERIODS OF RAIN; AND THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 81 F
TODAY AT FAY HAS A VERY REALISTIC CHANCE OF BEING SET.
KEY MESSAGE 2... BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND, EXPECT A RETURN TO MORE
TYPICAL LATE JULY WEATHER, WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 AND MOSTLY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION.
BY SUNDAY, THE FRONT THAT HAS BEEN AROUND CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
SHOULD HAVE MOVED FAR SOUTH TO HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT LOCALLY, AND
HIGHS SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE 80S EVERYWHERE. BY MONDAY, HIGHS WILL
RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S, CONTINUING THROUGH
THE WEEK. PRECIPITATION SHOULD ALSO RETURN TO GENERALLY BEING
DIURNALLY-DRIVEN. WHILE COVERAGE SHOULD BE ISOLATED MOST DAYS, THE
GREATEST COVERAGE SHOULD OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A
BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 725 AM FRIDAY...
LIFR-IFR CEILINGS WILL ONLY MINIMALLY LIFT TODAY AND BE ACCOMPANIED
BY PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN, IN A REGIME OF "OVERRUNNING" LIFT ATOP A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS FAR SERN NC THROUGH THE SC
LOWCOUNTRY, WITH A RELATED WARM SEASON COLD AIR DAMMING AIRMASS OVER
CNTL NC. ELEVATED CONVECTION AND RELATED MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND
SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY TONIGHT WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.
OUTLOOK: COLD AIR DAMMING AND CHANCES OF RAIN AND FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SAT NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A RETURN
TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
CONVECTION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CLIMATE
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES:
JULY 24: KFAY: 81/1985
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ042-043-073>078-
083>086-088-089.
DISCUSSION...MWS/TAG
AVIATION...MWS
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