810
FXUS62 KRAH 250549
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
150 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* FORECAST HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY, AND A BIT WETTER
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
* RAIN CHANCES FOR SUNDAY HAVE TRENDED LOWER OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 400 PM FRIDAY...
1) WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN COLD AIR DAMMING WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER WAVE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THAT MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA FROM LATE TONIGHT TO MIDDAY SATURDAY.
2) MORE TYPICAL JULY WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY AND PERSISTS INTO NEXT
WEEK WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 400 PM FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN COLD AIR DAMMING
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
ANOTHER WAVE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THAT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FROM LATE TONIGHT TO MIDDAY SATURDAY.
THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PINNED NEAR OR JUST INLAND OF THE
SOUTHERN NC COAST TODAY, WHICH IS WHERE ALL THE DEEP CONVECTION WITH
LIGHTNING IS CURRENTLY FOCUSED. MEANWHILE A CAD PATTERN WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING IN FROM THE NORTH IS RESULTING IN COOL NE
FLOW, LOW OVERCAST, AND JUST SOME VERY PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE
ACROSS CENTRAL NC. SPC MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS ANY CAPE IS CONFINED TO
CLINTON SOUTHEASTWARD. THUS TEMPERATURES WILL LARGELY STAY STUCK IN
THE 70S TODAY, AND THE CURRENT HIGH AT FAY IS ONLY 77F, MEANING THE
DAILY RECORD LOW MAXIMUM OF 81F IS CERTAINLY IN JEOPARDY.
A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER SE MO WILL TRACK ESE INTO THE TN VALLEY
AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TONIGHT, THEN ACROSS THE CAROLINAS DURING
THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE SOME ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR
ASCENT AND HELP THE BOUNDARY PIVOT BACK NW AGAIN INTO SE PARTS OF
OUR REGION TONIGHT. THUS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL TICK BACK UP
WITH PW VALUES INCREASING TO 2-2.5 INCHES AND MUCAPE OF 500-1000
J/KG ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN PIEDMONT, SANDHILLS, AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN. SO EXPECT AN AREA OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, WITH
THE HIGHEST RAINFALL RATES FROM ABOUT 4 AM TO NOON.
WPC DOES HAVE A SLIGHT (LEVEL 2 OF 4) RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
FOR THIS EVENT ACROSS OUR SE ZONES. THE 12Z HREF DEPICTS INCREASING
NEIGHBORHOOD PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING FFG AGAIN TONIGHT, BUT ONLY
IN THE 20-25% RANGE, AS THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES REMAIN PINNED NEAR
THE COASTLINE WHERE THE BETTER INSTABILITY WILL STILL BE. WPC QPF
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY RANGES FROM 0.25-0.5" IN THE FAR NORTHERN
PIEDMONT TO 0.75-1" FROM RALEIGH SOUTH AND EAST. WHILE THE 12Z HREF
LPMM DEPICTS SOME 1-2" BULLSEYES, NEIGHBORHOOD PROBABILITIES OF
RAINFALL RATES EXCEEDING 1"/HR ARE MUCH LOWER THAN THEY HAD BEEN FOR
YESTERDAY'S EVENT, WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT. THUS OPTED AGAINST ISSUING A
FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED URBAN AND
SMALL STREAM FLOODING GIVEN HOW SATURATED THE GROUND IS NOW. RAIN
WILL LARGELY COME TO AN END FROM NW TO SE IN THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE QUITE COOL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-70S TO LOWER-80S.
KEY MESSAGE 2... MORE TYPICAL JULY WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY AND
PERSISTS INTO NEXT WEEK WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION AND HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
AFTER ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS ROLLS THROUGH THE
REGION TONIGHT INTO ROUGHLY MIDDAY SATURDAY, DRIER WEATHER TAKES
HOLD LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE PATTERN ALSO RETURNS TO A MORE
TYPICAL LATE JULY PATTERN, WITH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED. THE WARMEST DAY MAY BE
TUESDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONT IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 90S. AS FOR
STORM CHANCES, THEY APPEAR TO BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AS CENTRAL NC
RESIDES IN A GENERALLY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SOME EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCES COULD RIPPLE THROUGH TO PRODUCE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
STORMS. THE MORE FAVORED TIME PERIOD IN THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS
LOOKING LIKE THE TUE-WED PERIOD ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SPC
CURRENTLY HAS A DAY 5 SLIGHT RISK FOR THIS PERIOD AND RECENT AI
GUIDANCE ALSO HAS BEEN HONING IN ON A SEVERE RISK. WPC HIGHLIGHTS A
MARGINAL EXCESSIVE RAIN RISK AT THIS TIME ALSO AND GIVEN THE SLOWER
PASSAGE OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS, WE MAY BE DEALING WITH A COMBINED
THREAT. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL ENOUGH MODEL SPREAD TO LIMIT OUR
OVERALL CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME RANGE, BUT SOMETHING WE CONTINUE TO
KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 150 AM SATURDAY...
ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE AT ALL CENTRAL NC
TERMINALS THROUGH MUCH OF THE 24 HR TAF PERIOD. AS A FRONTAL ZONE
SETTLES TO OUR SOUTH WITH A COOL FLOW FROM THE NE AND N AND LOTS OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE REGION, IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY IN
PLACE OVER ALL BUT THE NE (SUCH AS RWI) ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON/~17Z, AND AT RWI THE CURRENT MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DROP TO IFR TOWARD DAYBREAK. SPOTTY LIGHT
RAIN AND DRIZZLE OVER THE AREA WILL INCREASE TO FAIRLY HIGH RAIN
CHANCES AT ALL SITES BETWEEN 08Z AND 15Z, DWINDLING THEREAFTER BACK
TO MORE SPOTTY DRIZZLE. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL THEN TREND TO MVFR
CIGS BETWEEN 17Z AND 21Z, HOWEVER A RETURN TO IFR CONDITIONS IS
POSSIBLE VERY LATE IN THIS TAF VALID PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT, UNDER 8 KTS, FROM THE NE OR N TODAY, BECOMING VERY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OR CALM AFTER 21Z THROUGH TONIGHT.
LOOKING BEYOND 06Z SUN, ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS (MVFR-IFR) ARE
LIKELY TO HOLD UNTIL MID MORNING SUN, WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
AT ALL SITES BY 16Z. AN ISOLATED STRAY SHOWER OR STORM IS POSSIBLE
IN THE FAR W LATE SUN (INT/GSO) AND IN THE FAR E LATE MON (FAY/RWI),
BUT OVERALL WE'LL SEE DRIER VFR CONDITIONS. MORE TYPICAL LATE-DAY
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL RETURN FOR TUE-WED.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
JULY 28: KGSO: 75/2025 KRDU: 77/2023
JULY 29: KGSO: 75/2025
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...DANCO/KREN
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
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