449
FXUS62 KRAH 080619
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
220 AM EDT SAT AUG 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* THE GRADUAL DRYING TREND CONTINUES. WITH SOME BRIEF EXCEPTIONS,
JUST ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
* INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF HOT WEATHER DURING THE EARLY
TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 220 AM SATURDAY...
1) TYPICAL LATE-SUMMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED, WITH MOSTLY ISOLATED
LATE-DAY SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, PRIMARILY
OVER THE NW PIEDMONT AND FAR SE.
2) ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK,
WITH THE HEAT PEAKING TUE-WED WHEN HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW-MID 90S.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 220 AM SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... TYPICAL LATE-SUMMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED, WITH
MOSTLY ISOLATED LATE-DAY SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS, PRIMARILY OVER THE NW PIEDMONT AND FAR SE.
OUR MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERN REMAINS FOCUSED ON A WEAK SHEAR AXIS TO
OUR W, FROM AR TO LAKE ONTARIO, SANDWICHED BETWEEN STRONG
ANTICYCLONES OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST,
WHILE A LARGE CANADIAN GYRE SPINS OVER MANITOBA/ONTARIO INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST. THE RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST WILL STEADILY FLATTEN AND
SPREAD WESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHEAST/FL THROUGH THE WEEKEND, LIMITING
THE ADVECTION OF ATLANTIC/GULF-SOURCE MOISTURE INTO NC. AT THE
SURFACE, AS HIGH PRESSURE SITS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST, ANTICYCLONIC
WINDS FROM THE SSW AND SW WILL PERSIST OVER NC THROUGH EARLY MON,
WITH LEE TROUGHING HOLDING OVER THE W PIEDMONT. OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS, THE BETTER (BUT STILL LOW) CONVECTION CHANCES OVER CENTRAL NC
WILL REMAIN IN THE FAR SE, ASSOCIATED WITH THE INLAND-TRACKING SEA
BREEZE, AND IN THE NW, WHERE MOUNTAIN STORMS MAY DRIFT LATE IN THE
DAY. PW VALUES WILL HOVER NEAR NORMAL THROUGH SUN, WITH DAILY SBCAPE
PEAKING AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG, BUT WE'LL BE LACKING LARGE SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT OR ANY NOTEWORTHY BOUNDARIES TO FOCUS CONVECTION,
BESIDES PERHAPS THE SEA BREEZE OR AN OLD OUTFLOW. DEEP LAYER BULK
SHEAR WILL REMAIN POOR, JUST 15-20 KTS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH
WILL LIMIT THE ORGANIZATION AND LONGEVITY OF ANY CONVECTION THAT CAN
DEVELOP. AS SUCH, POPS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW CLIMATOLOGY, LARGELY (BUT
NOT SOLELY) IN THE FAR SE AND THE NW PIEDMONT.
THE WEAK TROUGH TO OUR W AND NW WILL PIVOT CLOCKWISE AND DIMINISH
SUN INTO MON, AS THE MID LEVEL HIGH OVER/OFF FL BECOMES FURTHER
SUPPRESSED AND THE WESTERLIES DIP A BIT FURTHER INTO THE MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES REGION. AS A RESULT, OUR MID LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER TO
MORE WESTERLY OR WNW AND REMAIN WEAK. PERIODS OF SLIGHTLY BETTER
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES START TO POP UP STARTING LATE MON, WHEN SOME
MODELS SHOW A WEAK PERTURBATION (MAYBE AN MCV) TRACKING FROM THE
MIDWEST ESE THROUGH NC, BRINGING MODEST DYNAMIC LIFT AND AN UPTICK
IN PW ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SE HALF, WHERE 25-50% POPS ARE EXPECTED.
OTHERWISE, POPS ARE LIKELY TO STAY JUST UNDER CLIMATOLOGY UNTIL THU,
WHEN THE FASTER NORTHERN STREAM FLOW DIGS BROADLY OVER THE
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES THEN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS SHOULD
HELP SUPPORT GREATER AND MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION. WE MAY EVEN END
UP WITHIN A TRAIN OF MIDWEST WAVES AND MCVS TRACKING ESE INTO THE
REGION, THAT MIGHT BRIEFLY BOOST POPS LATE IN THE WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2... ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK, WITH THE HEAT PEAKING TUE-WED WHEN HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
LOW-MID 90S.
AS THE FLATTENING MID LEVEL RIDGE STEADILY EXPANDS WESTWARD OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AND GULF STATES STARTING EARLY NEXT WEEK, SURFACE LEE
TROUGHING WILL SHARPEN OVER THE PIEDMONT, WITH A DOWNTURN IN CLOUD
COVER LEADING TO GREATER WARMING AT THE SURFACE, WHILE MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES REMAIN MODEST TO LOW. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE EXPECTED
TO RISE TO 5-15 M ABOVE NORMAL STARTING SUN, WHEN HIGHS SHOULD REACH
90 OR HIGHER MOST PLACES. THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THIS STRETCH ARE
EXPECTED TO BE TUE/WED, WHEN HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW-MID 90S, WITH
LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 70S. THE NWS EXPERIMENTAL HEAT RISK DOES REACH
THE MAJOR CATEGORY IN SOME AREAS THEN, SUGGESTING A HIGHER CHANCE OF
HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES FOR THOSE WITHOUT ADEQUATE COOLING. BY LATE
WEEK, AS THE NORTHERN STREAM DIPS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NW AND N, THE RESULTING UPTICK IN
CLOUDS AND POP COVERAGE SHOULD HELP NUDGE HIGHS DOWN A BIT BY FRI.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 200 AM SATURDAY...
THE BEST CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS DURING THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD WILL
COME FROM THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP TONIGHT. THE MOST
LIKELY LOCATION FOR IFR TO LIFR RESTRICTIONS REMAINS AT FAY, WITH
THE NEXT BEST CHANCE AT INT WHERE THERE SHOULD BE ADEQUATE MOISTURE.
TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING, SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE TRIAD, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS
STILL TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT INT/GSO AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK: ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH AN UPTICK IN UNSETTLED WEATHER POTENTIAL ON WEDNESDAY.
MORNING STRATUS AND FOG IS POSSIBLE ANY GIVEN MORNING WITH BRIEF SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
AUGUST 11: KGSO: 97/1925 KRDU: 101/1999 KFAY: 100/2009
AUGUST 12: KGSO: 97/1918 KRDU: 99/2002 KFAY: 102/1941
AUGUST 13: KFAY: 100/2007
AUGUST 14: KFAY: 100/1918
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
AUGUST 10: KGSO: 76/2007 KRDU: 77/1900 KFAY: 78/2007
AUGUST 11: KGSO: 75/2007 KRDU: 78/2010 KFAY: 78/2010
AUGUST 12: KGSO: 74/2016 KRDU: 77/1900 KFAY: 79/2010
AUGUST 13: KGSO: 76/2016 KRDU: 77/2016 KFAY: 79/1999
AUGUST 14: KGSO: 75/2016 KRDU: 78/1995 KFAY: 77/2016
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...HELOCK/LEINS
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