760
FXUS62 KRAH 082354
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
754 PM EDT SAT AUG 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES, UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 220 PM SATURDAY...
1) TYPICAL LATE-SUMMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED, WITH MOSTLY ISOLATED
LATE-DAY SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
2) RISK FOR HOT TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS HEAT INCREASE EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 220 PM SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... TYPICAL LATE-SUMMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED, WITH
MOSTLY ISOLATED LATE-DAY SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.
NEAR-NORMAL DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE, PROXIMITY TO DEEP SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, AND MINIMAL MESOSCALE FORCING
MECHANISMS, SHOULD KEEP COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO ISOLATED TO
LOCALLY SCATTERED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE LOCALLY GREATEST EACH DAY FOCUSED AROUND WEAK
SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE PIEDMONT, THE SEA BREEZE AS WELL AS
WHERE MODERATE LOW-LVL INSTABILITY DEVELOPS, WHICH VARIES BY DAY.
MOST SHOWERS/STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY SHALLOW AND CONSIST OF MOSTLY
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED/EMBEDDED STORMS WITH INFREQUENT LIGHTNING.
DOWNDRAFTS WILL BE EQUALLY TYPICAL FOR SUMMER-TIME STORMS AND
PRODUCE 20-30 MPH WIND GUSTS IMMEDIATELY SURROUNDING THE LOCATIONS
WHERE THEY COLLAPSE.
ISOLATED AND INFREQUENT STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS CAN'T BE
RULED OUT GIVEN THE MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IN PLACE WITHIN
THE HOT/HUMID AIR MASS OVER THE CAROLINAS (MLCAPE OF 2000-3500
J/KG). CLUSTERING STORMS THAT COLLAPSE ALONG A COMMON COLD POOL WILL
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO PRODUCE 40-60 MPH WIND GUSTS GIVEN THE LACK
OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR TO OTHERWISE ORGANIZE STORMS (0-6 KM SHEAR < 20
KTS). BASED ON LOW-LVL SHEAR VECTOR, CONTINUED STORM DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE MOST LIKELY ALONG THE NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY QUADRANT OF ANY
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EACH DAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2... RISK FOR HOT TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS HEAT
INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
STRONG SUB-TROPICAL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE
TO BE SUPPRESSED SOUTH THROUGH THIS WEEKEND BEFORE RETROGRADING AND
ELONGATING WESTWARD ACROSS FL AND INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. CENTRAL NC IS EXPECTED TO SITUATED BETWEEN TWO BANDS OF
SEASONABLY ANOMALOUS DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE SUN INTO WED, WHICH SHOULD
LIMIT WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE CHANCES, ALTHOUGH ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE. INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AND
LINGERING SMALL-SCALE FORCING MAY COUPLE WITH A BAND OF DEEPER
MOISTURE FROM THE MIDWEST AND NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC AS IT SAGS SOUTH
AND INTO THE CAROLINAS WED NIGHT ONWARD WHICH WILL COMPLICATE THE
RISK FOR CONTINUED DANGEROUS HEAT BEYOND WED.
IN THE ABSENCE OF CONVECTION, BUILDING SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO OUR
SOUTH AND WARMING H850 TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 20C WOULD SUPPORT LOW-
MID 90S AS EARLY AS SUN, AND AS HIGH AS UPPER 90S POSSIBLE TUES
THROUGH FRI. MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED HEAT INDEX VALUES DURING PEAK
HEATING WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON THE POSITION/LOCATION OF A PERSIST
PIEDMONT TROUGH, WITH DRIER DOWNSLOPING FLOW TO ITS WEST AND MORE
HUMID CONDITIONS TO ITS EAST. LOCATIONS EAST OF THIS FEATURE, AND
THAT REMAIN VOID OF CONVECTION, WILL LIKELY REACH MODERATE HEATRISK
AND ECLIPSE 105 DEGREE HEAT INDICES DURING PEAK HEATING.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 752 PM SATURDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THIS EVENING
ALONG AN AXIS FROM CLT TO RDU. THESE STORMS COULD RESULT IN GUSTS TO
AROUND 30 KTS AND IFR VSBYS. WHILE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND INTENSITY
SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE WITH LOSS OF HEATING, SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE/FEW HOURS, MAINLY AT KRDU. CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SHOWER AT KRWI, BUT IT IS LOOKING LESS LIKELY
SINCE TAF ISSUANCE. SOME TRAILING RAIN SHOWERS COULD MAKE IT INTO
THE TRIAD BEFORE DIMINISHING, BUT FOR NOW PROB WAS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAF. THERE ARE MIXED SIGNALS REGARDING SUB-VFR CIG
DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUN MORN, WITH THE BEST CHANCE
NEAR KFAY, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THIS TAF
ISSUANCE.
OUTLOOK: ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH AN
UPTICK IN UNSETTLED WEATHER POTENTIAL ON WEDNESDAY. MORNING STRATUS
AND FOG IS POSSIBLE ANY GIVEN MORNING WITH BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE.
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
AUGUST 11: KGSO: 97/1925 KRDU: 101/1999 KFAY: 100/2009
AUGUST 12: KGSO: 97/1918 KRDU: 99/2002 KFAY: 102/1941
AUGUST 13: KFAY: 100/2007
AUGUST 14: KFAY: 100/1918
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
AUGUST 10: KGSO: 76/2007 KRDU: 77/1900 KFAY: 78/2007
AUGUST 11: KGSO: 75/2007 KRDU: 78/2010 KFAY: 78/2010
AUGUST 12: KGSO: 74/2016 KRDU: 77/1900 KFAY: 79/2010
AUGUST 13: KGSO: 76/2016 KRDU: 77/2016 KFAY: 79/1999
AUGUST 14: KGSO: 75/2016 KRDU: 78/1995 KFAY: 77/2016
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...AS
AVIATION...10/LEINS
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