519
FXUS62 KRAH 091048
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
648 AM EDT SUN AUG 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* NOTHING APPRECIABLE
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...
1) A TYPICAL SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN CONTINUES TODAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE
90S AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
2) SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY, AND DIURNALLY-MAXIMIZED STORMS WITH
STRONG TO SEVERE DOWNBURSTS, ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR MOST OF
THE COMING WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... A TYPICAL SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN CONTINUES TODAY, WITH
HIGHS IN THE 90S AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
A BERMUDA HIGH LOCATED TO OUR EAST CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
PATTERN TODAY, BRINGING WARM, MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTH. ALOFT, THERE WILL BE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW, WITH A FEW MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER CENTRAL NC THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR THE WEATHER TODAY TO BE SIMILAR TO THAT OF PREVIOUS
DAYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW/MID 90S, WITH
MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES IN THE MID 90S TO AROUND 100.
ADDITIONALLY, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, WITH THE BEST CHANCE
CLOSER TO THE WEAK PIEDMONT TROUGH IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. LIMITED
SHEAR VALUES (< 20 KTS) WILL LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL, HOWEVER THERE
WILL BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY, WITH MUCAPE VALUES EXPECTED TO REACH
AROUND 2000-2500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. THUS, A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
WIND GUSTS FROM WATER-LOADED DOWNDRAFTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
KEY MESSAGE 2... SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY, AND DIURNALLY-
MAXIMIZED STORMS WITH STRONG TO SEVERE DOWNBURSTS, ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE COMING WEEK.
AROUND A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE THAT WILL RETROGRADE FROM THE SWRN N.
ATLANTIC TO THE GULF COAST AND LWR MS VALLEY, CNTL NC WILL BE
INFLUENCED BY A SERIES OF (MOSTLY CONVECTIVELY-ENHANCED) MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES THIS WEEK. THOSE DISTURBANCES WILL INITIALLY BE WITHIN
AND RELATED TO WLY FLOW ALONG A POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS
FROM THE SRN PLAINS AND MID-SOUTH TO THE SRN MIDDLE ATLANTIC, THEN
AMID WNWLY FLOW FROM THE UPR MS VALLEY TO THE SRN MIDDLE ATLANTIC
MID TO LATE WEEK.
AT THE SURFACE, AN APPALACHIAN LEE TROUGH WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK, BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND GULF AND A CONVECTIVELY-
MODULATED FRONTAL ZONE THAT WILL WAVER FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO
THE SOUTHERN MIDDLE ATLANTIC. THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT FRONTAL ZONE
MAY EDGE INTO THE CAROLINAS BY THE END OF THE WEEK OR NEXT WEEKEND.
THE PATTERN DESCRIBED ABOVE WILL FAVOR MOSTLY TERRAIN AND LEE TROUGH-
FORCED CONVECTION AMID THE CONVECTIVELY-PERTURBED WLY FLOW THROUGH
MON-TUE. WHILE SIMILAR FORCING MECHANISMS WILL ALSO BE INFLUENTIAL
MID TO LATE WEEK, INFLUENCE FROM MCVS FROM MORE-VIGOROUS UPSTREAM
CONVECTION/MCSS WITHIN THE WNWLY FLOW REGIME WILL PROBABLY MAXIMIZE
CONVECTIVE AND SEVERE CHANCES IN CNTL NC WED-WED NIGHT.
IT WILL OTHERWISE BE HOT FOR MOST OF THE WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 90S AND WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE UPR 90S TO NEAR
100 OVER THE NW PIEDMONT TO AROUND 105 ELSEWHERE, THROUGH AT LEAST
THU. THE APPROACH AND POSSIBLE PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL
ZONE WILL PROBABLY YIELD LESS HOT TEMPERATURES BY FRI-SAT.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 645 AM SUNDAY...
IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH
THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. RESTRICTIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE MORNING SUNLIGHT HELPS TO
LIFT AND SCATTER OUT THE CEILINGS. THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL NC. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL FOR THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK: ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WEEK. BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
RAIN AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY INTO LATE
WEEK. EACH MORNING, LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG MAY BRING THE CHANCE FOR
SUN-VFR RESTRICTIONS.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...HELOCK/MWS
AVIATION...HELOCK
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