023
FXUS62 KRAH 100706
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
306 AM EDT MON AUG 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* NOTHING SIGNIFICANT
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...
1) A TYPICAL LATE SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES TODAY, WITH HIGHS
IN THE 90S AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
2) SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK, THOUGH
PROBABLY LESSENED/INTERRUPTED BY A SERIES OF MCSS AND RELATED
OUTFLOW AND DEBRIS CLOUDINESS - AND A COUPLE OF WHICH WHICH MAY
INFLUENCE CNTL NC WITH ACCOMPANYING STRONG-SEVERE WIND POTENTIAL BY
TUE AND WED.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... A TYPICAL LATE SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES
TODAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE.
WITH LITTLE AIRMASS CHANGE OVER CENTRAL NC, A VERY SIMILAR WEATHER
PATTERN TO PREVIOUS DAYS CAN BE EXPECTED. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
LOCATED OFF THE COAST CONTINUES TO BRING WARM, MOIST AIR INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH, WITH QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED IN THE LOW/MID 90S ONCE AGAIN,
WITH MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES IN THE MID 90S TO AROUND 100.
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION, PROVIDING AN OVERALL WEAK SOURCE OF LIFT FOR ISOLATED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. LIMITED
SHEAR VALUES (< 20 KTS) WILL LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL, HOWEVER THERE
WILL BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY, WITH MUCAPE VALUES EXPECTED TO REACH
AROUND 2000-2500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. THUS, A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
WIND GUSTS FROM WATER-LOADED DOWNDRAFTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
ADDITIONALLY, WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED, HOWEVER SHOWERS
SHOULD BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS SO ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH
FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY IF STORMS BACKBUILD OR
TRAIN OVER ONE AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 2... SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE THIS
WEEK, THOUGH PROBABLY LESSENED/INTERRUPTED BY A SERIES OF MCSS AND
RELATED OUTFLOW AND DEBRIS CLOUDINESS - AND A COUPLE OF WHICH WHICH
MAY INFLUENCE CNTL NC WITH ACCOMPANYING STRONG-SEVERE WIND POTENTIAL
BY TUE AND WED.
AROUND A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE THAT WILL RETROGRADE FROM THE SWRN N.
ATLANTIC TO THE DEEP SOUTH/TN VALLEY, CNTL NC WILL BE INFLUENCED BY
A SERIES OF (MOSTLY CONVECTIVELY-ENHANCED) MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN
WNWLY FLOW ALOFT FROM THE UPR MS VALLEY TO THE SRN MIDDLE ATLANTIC.
AT THE SURFACE, AN APPALACHIAN LEE TROUGH WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS THIS WEEK, BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SUB-TROPICAL
ATLANTIC AND GULF AND A CONVECTIVELY-MODULATED FRONTAL ZONE THAT
WILL WAVER FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN MIDDLE ATLANTIC.
THE MODELS SUGGEST THE SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE MAY EDGE INTO THE
CAROLINAS BY FRI NIGHT-SAT.
WHILE THE PREVAILING WNWLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
MCS DEVELOPMENT AROUND THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE, MESOSCALE
UNCERTAINTIES WITH THEIR TIMING AND TRACK WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON
BOTH PRECIPITATION AND WIND POTENTIAL INTO CNTL NC AND ALSO IMPACTS
TO WHAT WILL OTHERWISE BE A HOT AND SEASONABLY HUMID ENVIRONMENT
OVER CNTL NC. DESPITE THOSE UNCERTAINTIES, THE CAMS TO VARYING
DEGREES DEPICT AT LEAST ONE VIGOROUS MCS MOVING ACROSS THE VIRGINIAS
AND INTO AT LEAST NRN NC ON TUE. ITS RELATED OUTFLOW AND DEBRIS
CLOUDINESS WOULD THEN HAVE RAMIFICATIONS ON THE TRACK AND
DEVELOPMENT OF SUBSEQUENT CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS INTO THE CAROLINAS ON
WED. MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE INDICATES POTENTIAL SLIGHT RISK
PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE WIND BOTH TUE AND WED IN CNTL NC.
IT WILL OTHERWISE BE HOT FOR MOST OF THE WEEK, BETWEEN BOUTS OF
CONVECTION/OUTFLOW/CLOUDINESS, WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S
AND WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE UPR 90S TO NEAR 100 OVER THE NW
PIEDMONT TO AROUND 105 ELSEWHERE, THROUGH AT LEAST THU. THE APPROACH
AND POSSIBLE PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL ZONE WILL
PROBABLY YIELD LESS HOT TEMPERATURES BY SAT.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 230 AM MONDAY...
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING'S AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
MAINLY DISSIPATED. AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE STILL REMAINS IN
THE NORTHERN SANDHILLS AND SOUTHEAST PIEDMONT, HOWEVER THIS SHOULD
NOT CAUSE RESTRICTIONS AS IT CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO. LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING, AN AREA OF SUB-VFR
STRATUS MAY BE POSSIBLE AGAIN IN THE SANDHILLS, SO ADDED A TEMPO FOR
LOW CEILINGS AT FAY. THE PROBABILITY OF RESTRICTIONS REMAINS
SOMEWHAT UNCLEAR DUE TO THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LIGHT RAIN, HOWEVER THE PATTERN REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR SOME
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT WHERE THERE IS ABUNDANT MOISTURE. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE AT ANY SPECIFIC TAF SITES AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK: ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN
AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS RETURNING WEDNESDAY INTO LATE WEEK. EACH
MORNING, LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG MAY BRING THE CHANCE FOR SUN-VFR
RESTRICTIONS.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...LH/MWS
AVIATION...LH
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