418
FXUS62 KRAH 110604
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
204 AM EDT TUE AUG 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SAMPSON COUNTY FROM NOON
TO 8 PM THIS EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 130 PM MONDAY...
1) A TYPICAL LATE SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES TODAY, WITH HIGHS
IN THE 90S AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
2) RISK FOR HOT TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS HEAT BEGIN TO INCREASE
THROUGH LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 130 PM MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... A TYPICAL LATE SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES
TODAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE.
THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE FROM THIS MORNING FOR THE
FORECAST INTO TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL NC. HEAT INDICES THIS AFTERNOON
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 90S NW TO LOWER 100S SE. THE 12Z HIGH-RES
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORM ACTIVITY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ALTHOUGH MODEL SCENARIOS DIFFER ON
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. THE MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A WEAK
PIEDMONT TROUGH ALONG AND EAST OF THE US-1 CORRIDOR. MEANWHILE, THE
LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST THE BEST COVERAGE
FOR STORMS ACROSS THE SANDHILLS INTO THE CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN. THIS
AREA HAS SEEN AN INCREASE IN TOWERING CUMULUS, AS WELL AS LIGHTNING
PROBABILITIES FROM LIGHTNINGCAST. THE MLCAPE IN THIS AREA ALSO
APPROACHES 3500 J/KG, WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE OVER 2
INCHES. WHILE WE ARE NOT OUTLOOKED FROM SPC OR WPC, GIVEN THE
ENVIRONMENT AND 20-25 KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR, CANNOT RULE OUT A
STRAY DOWNBURST OR TWO, AS WELL AS LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. A FEW
POCKETS OF ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALSO IN THE PIEDMONT AND
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN, BUT CONFIDENCE ON COVERAGE IS QUITE LOW AT
THE MOMENT. SOME CAMS SUGGEST ISOLATED ACTIVITY TONIGHT MOVING SOUTH
OUT OF VA (TIED TO DEVELOPMENT PRESENTLY IN OH/WV), BUT MOST OF THIS
SHOULD WEAKEN WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT OWING TO STABILIZATION OVERNIGHT.
TUES THROUGH THURS: THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF A BELT OF ENHANCED WEST-
NORTHWEST MID-LVL FLOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN MID-
ATLANTIC WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH AND INTO THE CAROLINAS AS EARLY AS
TUES AND PERSIST OVER THE REGION INTO THE LATE WEEK. DURING THIS
TIME, A SLIGHT INCREASE TO THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS
EXPECTED (15-30 KTS, GREATEST TOWARDS THE VA BORDER). ADDITIONALLY,
ANY CONVECTIVELY INDUCED PERTURBATIONS AND REMNANT MCV'S FROM MORE
VIGOROUS CONVECTION FROM THE OH AND TN VALLEY'S MAY PROVIDE LOCALLY
MORE ORGANIZED AND GREATER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION ALONG THEIR TRACK
DURING THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGE 2... RISK FOR HOT TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS HEAT BEGIN
TO INCREASE THROUGH LATE WEEK.
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGING ELONGATED ACROSS FL AND INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF
THROUGH TUES IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY
MIDWEEK BEFORE SHIFTING INTO THE TN VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH LATE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND.
WHILE THE PREVAILING WNWLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
MCS DEVELOPMENT AROUND THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE, MESOSCALE
UNCERTAINTIES WITH THEIR TIMING AND TRACK WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON
BOTH PRECIPITATION AND WIND POTENTIAL INTO CNTL NC AND ALSO IMPACTS
TO WHAT WILL OTHERWISE BE A HOT AND SEASONABLY HUMID ENVIRONMENT
OVER CNTL NC. DESPITE THOSE UNCERTAINTIES, THE CAMS TO VARYING
DEGREES DEPICT AT LEAST ONE VIGOROUS MCS MOVING ACROSS THE VIRGINIAS
AND INTO AT LEAST NRN NC ON TUE. ITS RELATED OUTFLOW AND DEBRIS
CLOUDINESS WOULD THEN HAVE RAMIFICATIONS ON THE TRACK AND
DEVELOPMENT OF SUBSEQUENT CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS INTO THE CAROLINAS ON
WED.
IT WILL OTHERWISE BE HOT FOR MOST OF THE WEEK, BETWEEN BOUTS OF
CONVECTION/OUTFLOW/CLOUDINESS, WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S
AND WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE UPR 90S TO NEAR 100 OVER THE NW
PIEDMONT TO AROUND 105 ELSEWHERE, THROUGH AT LEAST THU AND
POTENTIALLY INTO FRI TOWARDS THE SC BORDER. THE APPROACH AND
POSSIBLE PASSAGE OF A FRONTAL ZONE WILL PROBABLY YIELD LESS HOT
TEMPERATURES BY SAT.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 200 AM TUESDAY...
THE MAJORITY OF THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN VFR. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT LOW STRATUS WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN OUT
OF THE REGION, HOWEVER DUE TO THE AIRMASS OVERHEAD, CANNOT RULE OUT
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS
WOULD BE AT FAY. THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
CENTRAL NC. THIS WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF BRIEF VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS, THUNDER, AND GUSTY WINDS AT ALL TAF SITES.
OUTLOOK: INCREASED CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS RETURN WEDNESDAY INTO LATE WEEK. EACH
MORNING, LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG MAY BRING THE CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR
RESTRICTIONS.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NCZ089.
DISCUSSION...AK/AS/MWS
AVIATION...LH
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