447
FXUS62 KRAH 110711
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
311 AM EDT TUE AUG 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SAMPSON COUNTY FROM NOON
TO 8 PM THIS EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 310 AM TUESDAY...
1) ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY TODAY, WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG TO SEVERE WIND
GUSTS POSSIBLE.
2) SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK, THOUGH
PROBABLY LESSENED/INTERRUPTED BY A SERIES OF MCSS/MCVS AND RELATED
OUTFLOW AND DEBRIS CLOUDINESS THAT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE OH VALLEY
AND SRN MIDDLE ATLANTIC WITH ACCOMPANYING STRONG-SEVERE WIND
POTENTIAL.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 310 AM TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY TODAY, WITH ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG TO
SEVERE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS STARTED RETROGRADING BACK TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST COAST, ALLOWING FOR SURFACE WINDS OVER CENTRAL NC TO BACK
TO BE MORE WESTERLY. ALOFT, NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW DISTURBANCES TO TRACK TOWARDS AND
POTENTIALLY THROUGH THE REGION TODAY FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE
FIRST SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT PASSES OVER THE MOUNTAINS,
WITH ONLY SLIGHTLY INCREASED CLOUD COVER EXPECTED IN THE NORTH THIS
MORNING. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, BRINGING A RISK OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIFFER ON HOW
MUCH CONVECTION WILL BE ABLE TO PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL NC. HOWEVER,
SLIGHTLY STRONGER SHEAR TODAY SHOULD SUPPORT STRONGER AND BETTER
ORGANIZED STORMS THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS. AS A RESULT, A FEW STORMS
COULD PRODUCE STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, PARTICULARLY WHERE
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. ON THE OTHER HAND, IF INCREASED
MORNING CLOUD COVER PERSISTS FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST, THIS COULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
AVAILABLE FOR STORMS AND COULD ULTIMATELY LEAD TO A DECREASE IN
STORM COVERAGE AND SEVERITY. THUS, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AS THE MAIN CONCERN.
IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES, HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD REACH THE
LOWER 90S IN THE NORTH TO THE UPPER 90S IN THE SOUTH. COMBINED WITH
HUMIDITY, HEAT INDICES SHOULD PEAK IN THE MID 90S NORTH TO THE
LOW/MID 100S IN THE SOUTH. THUS, A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
SAMPSON COUNTY WHERE THE HEAT INDEX IS FORECAST TO REACH 105
DEGREES. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE TO MAJOR HEATRISK INDICATES THAT HEAT
ILLNESSES ARE STILL POSSIBLE FOR THOSE WITHOUT ADEQUATE COOLING AND
HYDRATION TODAY, ESPECIALLY THOSE SENSITIVE TO HIGH HEAT.
KEY MESSAGE 2... SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK, THOUGH
PROBABLY LESSENED/INTERRUPTED BY A SERIES OF MCSS/MCVS AND RELATED
OUTFLOW AND DEBRIS CLOUDINESS THAT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE OH VALLEY
AND SRN MIDDLE ATLANTIC WITH ACCOMPANYING STRONG-SEVERE WIND
POTENTIAL.
AROUND A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE THAT WILL RETROGRADE FROM THE GULF TO
THE MID-SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND, CNTL NC WILL BE INFLUENCED BY A
SERIES OF (MOSTLY CONVECTIVELY-ENHANCED) MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN
WNWLY FLOW ALOFT FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC.
AT THE SURFACE, A CONVECTIVELY-MODULATED FRONTAL ZONE WILL WAVER
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE SRN MIDDLE ATLANTIC THROUGH MOST OF
THE WEEK, THEN EDGE SWD ACROSS NC LATE FRI-SAT. AN ONSHORE/ELY FLOW
COMPONENT IN POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
WILL FAVOR LESS HOT TEMPERATURES IN CNTL NC THIS WEEKEND, WHEN THE
CENTER OF THE HEAT SHOULD RETREAT SWWD AND INTO THE TN VALLEY AND
MID-SOUTH.
WHILE THE PREVAILING WNWLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
MCS DEVELOPMENT AND MAINTENANCE AROUND THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE,
MESOSCALE UNCERTAINTIES WITH THEIR TIMING, TRACK, AND MAINTENANCE
AND/OR REDEVELOPMENT EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS
ON PRECIPITATION AND WIND POTENTIAL INTO CNTL NC, ALONG WITH
POTENTIAL LESSENING OF WHAT WILL OTHERWISE BE A HOT AND SEASONABLY
HUMID STRETCH THIS WEEK. PENDING THOSE MESOSCALE INFLUENCES, THE
AIRMASS WILL OTHERWISE BE SUPPORTIVE OF TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE
90S, WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 100-105F OR SO RANGE OVER ALL BUT
THE NW PIEDMONT.
AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 200 AM TUESDAY...
THE MAJORITY OF THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN VFR. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT LOW STRATUS WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN OUT
OF THE REGION, HOWEVER DUE TO THE AIRMASS OVERHEAD, CANNOT RULE OUT
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS
WOULD BE AT FAY. THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
CENTRAL NC. THIS WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF BRIEF VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS, THUNDER, AND GUSTY WINDS AT ALL TAF SITES.
OUTLOOK: INCREASED CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS RETURN WEDNESDAY INTO LATE WEEK. EACH
MORNING, LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG MAY BRING THE CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR
RESTRICTIONS.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NCZ089.
DISCUSSION...MWS/LH
AVIATION...LH
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