226
FXUS62 KRAH 121713
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
115 PM EDT WED AUG 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 215 AM WEDNESDAY...
1) ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY TODAY, WITH A CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM THIS AFTERNOON.
2) THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE WEEK, WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME
AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
3) EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BACK OF A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND, WHILE
CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION CONTINUE.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 215 AM WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY TODAY, WITH A CHANCE OF
AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM THIS AFTERNOON.
A VERY SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES FOR CENTRAL NC TODAY. WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND A DEEP
RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR WEST, HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL
REMAIN IN THE LOW 90S NORTH TO THE MID 90S IN THE SOUTH. DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON LOOK TO MIX OUT TO THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70S. THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP HEAT INDICES BELOW HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA, WITH HEAT INDICES LOOKING TO PEAK IN THE 90S TO AROUND
102. ALTHOUGH A HEAT ADVISORY HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED, THIS LEVEL OF
HEAT COULD STILL POSE RISKS FOR THOSE WITHOUT ADEQUATE COOLING AND
HYDRATION TODAY, ESPECIALLY THOSE SENSITIVE TO HIGH HEAT.
RAIN CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON WILL COME FROM A MID/UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE THAT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH CAMS HAVE BEEN TRENDING DOWN WITH THE
AMOUNT OF CONVECTION EXPECTED, STILL THINK ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
MAINLY IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION EXPECTED
SHOULD BE BETTER UNDERSTOOD AS WE SEE HOW UPSTREAM CONVECTION
BEHAVES THIS MORNING AND IF IT CAN BE SUSTAINED AS IT MOVES ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS. LOOKING LOCALLY, CAPE VALUES THIS AFTERNOON LOOK TO
MAXIMIZE AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG, WITH AROUND 20 KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR.
AS A RESULT, A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS IF THEY ARE ABLE TO PREVAIL INTO CENTRAL NC THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 2... THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE WEEK, WITH A
CHANCE FOR SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
CENTRAL NC WILL BE ON THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE STRENGTHENING SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE, WITH A SERIES OF S/W DISTURBANCES TRACKING ACROSS
THE AREA WITHIN THE NWLY FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE, A TROUGH WILL
SIT OVER THE REGION THU AND FRI, A LOW DEVELOPING WITHIN IT AS A
BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS SWD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC ON FRI. THERE IS
STILL A GOOD BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WRT CONVECTION BOTH THU AND FRI, BUT
EXPECT A CHANCE FOR AFT/EVE SHOWERS/STORMS EACH DAY, BUT CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH ON OCCURRENCE OR COVERAGE. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS
SHOULD RANGE FROM LOW 90S NORTH TO UPPER 90S/NEAR 100 DEGREES SOUTH.
AFTERNOON RH VALUES IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S WILL RESULT IN HEAT
INDEX VALUES RANGING FROM AROUND 100 NORTH TO 105-110 SOUTH, HIGHEST
FRI.
KEY MESSAGE 3... EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BACK OF A BIT OVER THE
WEEKEND, WHILE CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION CONTINUE.
THE MID-LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONE WILL STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT GRADUALLY WNWWD
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED ALONG THE EAST COAST EARLY-MID WEEK.
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES RIDING THE RIDGE MAY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SURFACE, MODEL GUIDANCE
VARIES WRT THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE HIGH, AND WHETHER THE FRONT
WILL MAKE IT ACROSS CENTRAL NC OVER THE WEEKEND. THERE SHOULD AT
LEAST BE SOME NELY/ELY COMPONENT OF THE WIND INTO PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NC OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH SLIDES SEWD ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND OFF THE EAST COAST. WITH THE BACKDOOR FRONT POTENTIAL
AND SOME NELY/ELY FLOW AT THE SURFACE, SAT AND SUN SHOULD BE LESS
HOT THAN THU AND FRI, BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 115 PM WEDNESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DOMINATE AT ALL CENTRAL NC TERMINALS
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BOUTS OF SCT-BKN CLOUDS WILL LARGELY CONSIST
OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS AOA 12 KFT AGL SPREADING ESE AND SE INTO
NC FROM UPSTREAM STORM COMPLEXES WELL TO OUR NW. A FEW CU BASED AT 5-
6 KFT ARE ALSO POSSIBLE, BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TOWARD THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD. BUT CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER IN THE POTENTIAL
FOR ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS. WHILE THE UPSTREAM STORM COMPLEXES ARE
EXPECTED TO DWINDLE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS THEY SLIDE SE
TOWARD NC, WE MAY STILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS
DEVELOP OVER OR MOVE THROUGH MAINLY W AND S AREAS, PARTICULARLY THE
TRIAD TERMINALS. THE PREDICTABILITY IS VERY LOW WITH THE TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF THIS UPSTREAM ACTIVITY, HOWEVER, SO CONFIDENCE WITH THE
DETAILS IS LOW. GIVEN THIS, AND WITH LOW COVERAGE REGARDNESS, WILL
NOT INCLUDE ANY PRECIPITATION IN ANY TERMINALS AT THIS TIME, BUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM OR TWO CAN'T BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT, ESP AT
INT/GSO LATER TODAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT, UNDER 10 KTS,
MAINLY FROM THE WNW OR NW THROUGH THU.
LOOKING BEYOND 18Z THU, SCATTERED LATE-DAY SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH MON, ALTHOUGH THE PREDICTABILITY OF THIS
WILL REMAIN RATHER LOW, REDUCING FORECAST CONFIDENCE. A FEW HOURS OF
EARLY-MORNING SUB-VFR FOG/STRATUS MAY OCCUR EACH DAY STARTING EARLY
FRI MORNING, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN AREAS THAT SEE RAIN.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...LH/10
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
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