378
FXUS62 KRAH 121904
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
305 PM EDT WED AUG 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* WE'VE ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR AREAS FROM RALEIGH TO THE S AND E
FOR THU. ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR SOME
AREAS FRI AS WELL.
* MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN SHOWER/STORM CHANCES AND TIMING OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS, BUT OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM EARLIER
FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 305 PM WEDNESDAY...
1) THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE INTO LATE WEEK, WITH A SLIGHT
BREAK OVER THE WEEKEND THEN RETURNING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
2) THE CHANCE FOR MOSTLY DIURNAL CONVECTION PERSISTS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, BUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING DETAILS.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 305 PM WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE INTO LATE WEEK,
WITH A SLIGHT BREAK OVER THE WEEKEND THEN RETURNING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK, THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, CENTRAL NC WILL
REMAIN ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE, WITH A
PERSISTENT SURFACE TROUGH DRIVING CONTINUED EXTREME HEAT. WHILE SOME
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE, HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOW
90S NORTH TO NEAR 100 DEGREES IN THE SOUTH. COMBINING THESE TEMPS
WITH HIGH HUMIDITY, EXPECT HEAT INDICES OF 100 TO 108. A HEAT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS FROM RALEIGH TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST FOR THURSDAY, AND ONE MAY ALSO BE NEEDED FRIDAY FOR THE
SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN.
OVER THE WEEKEND, TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL GENERATE A
WEAK NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT AND RESULT IN NEAR-
NORMAL HIGHS. HOWEVER, LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN
TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT INDICES, WHILE PASSING SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO
FORCE TYPICAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION BOTH AFTERNOONS.
INTO THE EARLY AND MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK OPPRESSIVE HEAT RETURNS AS
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND THE NEXT INCOMING TROUGH
STRENGTHENS. DEPENDING ON HOW AFTERNOON DEW POINTS MIX OUT EACH DAY,
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL PEAK AGAIN UP TO 109 DEGREES FOR PARTS OF THE
AREA. THIS SECONDARY WAVE OF HIGH HEAT INDICES WILL LIKELY REQUIRE
ADDITIONAL HEAT ADVISORIES FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL NC EARLY TO MID WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2... THE CHANCE FOR MOSTLY DIURNAL CONVECTION PERSISTS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE PLACEMENT AND
TIMING DETAILS.
THE OVERALL CENTRAL/E CONUS PATTERN WILL REMAIN LARGELY THE SAME
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, FEATURING A QUASI-STATIONARY NW-TO-SE
FRONTAL ZONE (WHICH COULD ACTUALLY WAVER SIGNIFICANTLY IN SPOTS
BASED ON THE WHIMS OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES AND OUTFLOWS) FROM THE
MIDWEST THROUGH OHIO VALLEY AND NC. THIS FRONT WILL BE ALIGNED WITH
A SWIFT AND PERTURBED NW STEERING FLOW FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST
THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC, ON THE N AND NE SIDE OF A BUILDING MID
LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST, GULF STATES, AND LOWER
MISS VALLEY. THIS WILL PUT CENTRAL NC WITHIN THE PATH OF POTENTIALLY
MULTIPLE MCS REMNANTS OR MCVS TRACKING ESE OR SE INTO OUR AREA OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS, ALL WITH POOR PREDICTABILITY BEYOND 12-24 HRS.
THROUGH TONIGHT, A MATURE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX NOW OVER S/E IN AND W
OH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES PUSHING GENERALLY SE, BUT
MAY STILL SPAWN A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED STORM ACROSS
OUR EXTREME W AND S BETWEEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS. DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE 20-25 KTS
THROUGH TONIGHT, BUT LINGERING 500-750 J/KG OF CAPE WILL BE
INCREASINGLY OVERWHELMED BY NOCTURNAL CINH. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR
NOT ANY CONVECTION SURVIVES THIS FAR SE, THE VEIL OF DEBRIS MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CERTAINLY PASS OVERHEAD INTO THU MORNING.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS PRETTY GOOD THAT THE MID LEVEL PATTERN AND
SURFACE FRONTAL PATTERN WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR AT LEAST A FEW DAYS,
AGAIN WITH DEVIATIONS IN FRONTAL POSITION, AND WE'LL STAY WITHIN A
STEAMY AIR MASS FEATURING A WEAK W TO NW LOW LEVEL FLOW AND ABOVE-
NORMAL HIGH TEMPS IN THE 90S. SO ANY CONVECTION WILL BE ABLE TO TAP
INTO THIS JUICY AIR MASS WITH LATE-DAY CAPE PEAKING NEAR 1000-1500
J/KG. BUT THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STAY MODEST, AND WITH THE
LIGHT WINDS LEADING TO A LACK OF DISTINCT FOCUS FOR CONVECTION, THE
COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO STAY SUB-CLIMATOLOGY, ISOLD TO SCATTERED AT
MOST, BUT WITH UNCERTAIN TIMING AND PLACEMENT. NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN OUR AREA, HOWEVER, FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 115 PM WEDNESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DOMINATE AT ALL CENTRAL NC TERMINALS
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BOUTS OF SCT-BKN CLOUDS WILL LARGELY CONSIST
OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS AOA 12 KFT AGL SPREADING ESE AND SE INTO
NC FROM UPSTREAM STORM COMPLEXES WELL TO OUR NW. A FEW CU BASED AT 5-
6 KFT ARE ALSO POSSIBLE, BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TOWARD THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD. BUT CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER IN THE POTENTIAL
FOR ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS. WHILE THE UPSTREAM STORM COMPLEXES ARE
EXPECTED TO DWINDLE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS THEY SLIDE SE
TOWARD NC, WE MAY STILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS
DEVELOP OVER OR MOVE THROUGH MAINLY W AND S AREAS, PARTICULARLY THE
TRIAD TERMINALS. THE PREDICTABILITY IS VERY LOW WITH THE TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF THIS UPSTREAM ACTIVITY, HOWEVER, SO CONFIDENCE WITH THE
DETAILS IS LOW. GIVEN THIS, AND WITH LOW COVERAGE REGARDLESS, WILL
NOT INCLUDE ANY PRECIPITATION IN ANY TERMINALS AT THIS TIME, BUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM OR TWO CAN'T BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT, ESP AT
INT/GSO LATER TODAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT, UNDER 10 KTS,
MAINLY FROM THE WNW OR NW THROUGH THU.
LOOKING BEYOND 18Z THU, SCATTERED LATE-DAY SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH MON, ALTHOUGH THE PREDICTABILITY OF THIS
WILL REMAIN RATHER LOW, REDUCING FORECAST CONFIDENCE. A FEW HOURS OF
EARLY-MORNING SUB-VFR FOG/STRATUS MAY OCCUR EACH DAY STARTING EARLY
FRI MORNING, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN AREAS THAT SEE RAIN.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...CA/HARTFIELD
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
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