254
FXUS62 KRAH 130530
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
130 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY TODAY INTO FRIDAY, A BRIEF BREAK
SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY MORE DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 130 AM THURSDAY...
1) HEAT ADVISORY MANY AREAS TODAY. DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY TODAY
INTO FRIDAY, A BRIEF BREAK SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY MORE DANGEROUS HEAT
AND HUMIDITY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
2) THE CHANCE FOR MOSTLY DIURNAL CONVECTION PERSISTS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, BUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING DETAILS.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 130 AM THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... HEAT ADVISORY MANY AREAS TODAY. DANGEROUS HEAT AND
HUMIDITY TODAY INTO FRIDAY, A BRIEF BREAK SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY MORE
DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
FOR TODAY AND FRIDAY, HIGH HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL RETURN TO NORTH
CAROLINA. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO
THE 90S. READINGS MAY VERY WELL APPROACH 100 IN THE SANDHILLS. HEAT
INDEX VALUES OF 100 TO 107 ARE EXPECTED. THERE IS ONLY A SMALL
CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM LATE TODAY INTO THE EVENING.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE SLOW TO FALL BELOW 80, FINALLY REACHING THE MID
TO UPPER 70S FOR LOWS.
ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY IS EXPECTED FRIDAY WHEN HIGHS WILL AGAIN REACH
WELL INTO THE 90S. HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 102-109 EXPECTED.
A WEAK FRONT MAY SLIDE JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH TRIES TO REACH THIS
FAR SOUTH INTO NC. MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS WILL OCCUR WITH
THE SURFACE FLOW BECOMING LIGHT NE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL DROP HIGHS BACK ABOUT 5 DEGREES SATURDAY, WITH A SLIGHT
REDUCTION IN HUMIDITY AS WELL. HOWEVER, THIS WILL NOT LAST LONG AS
THE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE SUNDAY
ALLOWING WAA TO RETURN THE HIGH HEAT AND HUMIDITY SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS HIGHS MAY REACH 95-100 BY MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2... THE CHANCE FOR MOSTLY DIURNAL CONVECTION PERSISTS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE PLACEMENT AND
TIMING DETAILS.
THE OVERALL CENTRAL/E CONUS PATTERN WILL REMAIN LARGELY THE SAME
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, FEATURING A QUASI-STATIONARY NW-TO-SE
FRONTAL ZONE (WHICH COULD ACTUALLY WAVER SIGNIFICANTLY IN SPOTS
BASED ON THE WHIMS OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES AND OUTFLOWS) FROM THE
MIDWEST THROUGH OHIO VALLEY AND NC. THIS FRONT WILL BE ALIGNED WITH
A SWIFT AND PERTURBED NW STEERING FLOW FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST
THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC, ON THE N AND NE SIDE OF A BUILDING MID
LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST, GULF STATES, AND LOWER
MISS VALLEY. THIS WILL PUT CENTRAL NC WITHIN THE PATH OF POTENTIALLY
MULTIPLE MCS REMNANTS OR MCVS TRACKING ESE OR SE INTO OUR AREA OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS, ALL WITH POOR PREDICTABILITY BEYOND 12-24 HRS.
THROUGH TONIGHT, A MATURE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX NOW OVER S/E IN AND W
OH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES PUSHING GENERALLY SE, BUT
MAY STILL SPAWN A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED STORM ACROSS
OUR EXTREME W AND S BETWEEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS. DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE 20-25 KTS
THROUGH TONIGHT, BUT LINGERING 500-750 J/KG OF CAPE WILL BE
INCREASINGLY OVERWHELMED BY NOCTURNAL CINH. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR
NOT ANY CONVECTION SURVIVES THIS FAR SE, THE VEIL OF DEBRIS MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CERTAINLY PASS OVERHEAD INTO THU MORNING.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS PRETTY GOOD THAT THE MID LEVEL PATTERN AND
SURFACE FRONTAL PATTERN WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR AT LEAST A FEW DAYS,
AGAIN WITH DEVIATIONS IN FRONTAL POSITION, AND WE'LL STAY WITHIN A
STEAMY AIR MASS FEATURING A WEAK W TO NW LOW LEVEL FLOW AND ABOVE-
NORMAL HIGH TEMPS IN THE 90S. SO ANY CONVECTION WILL BE ABLE TO TAP
INTO THIS JUICY AIR MASS WITH LATE-DAY CAPE PEAKING NEAR 1000-1500
J/KG. BUT THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STAY MODEST, AND WITH THE
LIGHT WINDS LEADING TO A LACK OF DISTINCT FOCUS FOR CONVECTION, THE
COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO STAY SUB-CLIMATOLOGY, ISOLD TO SCATTERED AT
MOST, BUT WITH UNCERTAIN TIMING AND PLACEMENT. NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN OUR AREA, HOWEVER, FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 130 AM THURSDAY...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
06Z/FRIDAY. AN ISOLATED PM STORM IS POSSIBLE TODAY, BUT CHANCES ARE
LESS THAN 15 PERCENT AT ANY LOCATION.
LOOKING BEYOND 06Z FRI: ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED LATE-DAY STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NCZ041>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.
DISCUSSION...BADGETT,CA
AVIATION...BADGETT
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