267
FXUS62 KRAH 131013
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
630 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY TODAY INTO FRIDAY, A BRIEF BREAK
SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY MORE DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.
* CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS HIGHEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
SHIFTING SOUTH A BIT ON SATURDAY PM. SOME SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE
FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 130 AM THURSDAY...
1) HEAT ADVISORY MANY AREAS TODAY. DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY TODAY
INTO FRIDAY, A BRIEF BREAK SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY MORE DANGEROUS HEAT
AND HUMIDITY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
2) CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS HIGHEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
SHIFTING SOUTH A BIT ON SATURDAY PM. SOME SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE
FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 130 AM THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... HEAT ADVISORY MANY AREAS TODAY. DANGEROUS HEAT AND
HUMIDITY TODAY INTO FRIDAY, A BRIEF BREAK SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY MORE
DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
FOR TODAY AND FRIDAY, HIGH HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL RETURN TO NORTH
CAROLINA. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO
THE 90S. READINGS MAY VERY WELL APPROACH 100 IN THE SANDHILLS. HEAT
INDEX VALUES OF 100 TO 107 ARE EXPECTED. THERE IS ONLY A SMALL
CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM LATE TODAY INTO THE EVENING.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE SLOW TO FALL BELOW 80, FINALLY REACHING THE MID
TO UPPER 70S FOR LOWS.
ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY IS EXPECTED FRIDAY WHEN HIGHS WILL AGAIN REACH
WELL INTO THE 90S. HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 102-109 EXPECTED.
A WEAK FRONT MAY SLIDE JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH TRIES TO REACH THIS
FAR SOUTH INTO NC. MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS WILL OCCUR WITH
THE SURFACE FLOW BECOMING LIGHT NE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL DROP HIGHS BACK ABOUT 5 DEGREES SATURDAY, WITH A SLIGHT
REDUCTION IN HUMIDITY AS WELL. HOWEVER, THIS WILL NOT LAST LONG AS
THE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE SUNDAY
ALLOWING WAA TO RETURN THE HIGH HEAT AND HUMIDITY SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS HIGHS MAY REACH 95-100 BY MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2... CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS HIGHEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, SHIFTING SOUTH A BIT ON SATURDAY PM. SOME SEVERE
WEATHER POSSIBLE FRIDAY.
DISTURBANCES IN THE WNW FLOW ALOFT A TOP THE WAVERING FRONT OVER
WESTERN NC WILL LIKELY BRING THE BEST CHANCE OF PM THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY JUST TO OUR OVER WESTERN NC. HOWEVER, AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
WILL BE POSSIBLE ANYWHERE THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS ADDITIONAL MCVS APPROACH DURING THE PEAK
HEATING AND INTO THE EVENING. THE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME A BIT
STRONGER DEEPER SOUTH INTO NC. MLCAPES WILL BE IMPRESSIVE (2500+)
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT.
THE CONVECTION CHANCES MAY SHIFT WEST AND SOUTH OF OUR AREA LATER
SATURDAY AS THE OUTFLOWS AND FRONT MOVE BACK SOUTHWEST.
MORE CHANCES FOR PM THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 630 AM THURSDAY...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
06Z/FRIDAY. AN ISOLATED PM STORM IS POSSIBLE TODAY, BUT CHANCES ARE
LESS THAN 15 PERCENT AT ANY LOCATION.
LOOKING BEYOND 12Z FRI: SCATTERED LATE-DAY STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. OTHERWISE, GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NCZ041>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.
DISCUSSION...BADGETT
AVIATION...BADGETT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page