348
FXUS62 KRAH 141850
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
250 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* IN ADDITION TO TODAY'S HEAT ADVISORY, ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR OUR SOUTHERN HALF FOR SAT. ADDITIONAL HEAT ALERTS
ARE LIKELY FOR SUN AND MON.
* SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE HIGHER TODAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND
COMPARED TO THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS, BUT STILL MOSTLY SCATTERED.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 250 PM FRIDAY...
1) DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NC TOMORROW THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
2) THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS
EVENING AREAWIDE, AND A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY, WITH THE HIGHER RISK OVER WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN AREAS OF CENTRAL NC. DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREAT.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 250 PM FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NC TOMORROW THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE DATA REVEALS CONVECTION CROSSING THE
MOUNTAINS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. VARYING AMOUNTS OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS
HAVE BEEN PRESENT ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY BUT
GIVEN MILD MORNING LOW TEMPS, THERE HAS BEEN NO PROBLEM SEEING HEAT
INDEX VALUES CLIMB ABOVE 100 (BEFORE NOON IN MANY SPOTS).
THE HEAT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL 8 PM TONIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING PLUS THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN
COOLED AIR FROM SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BRING SOME DEGREE OF
RELIEF BY THIS EVENING. MID LEVEL HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES REMAIN
RELATIVELY SIMILAR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON
SATURDAY. AS SUCH, TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS SHOULD YIELD SIMILAR HEAT
INDEX VALUES ALONG AND SOUTH OF A STANLY TO WAYNE CO LINE, AND A
HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM 11A-8P TOMORROW AS WELL.
WITH A STALLED FRONT LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA AND LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF BACKDOOR COLD AIR TO CLEANLY PUSH IT THROUGH OUR AREA,
DANGEROUSLY HOT HEAT INDEX VALUES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND ADDITIONAL HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2... THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING AREAWIDE, AND A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY WITH THE HIGHER RISK OVER WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN AREAS OF CENTRAL NC. DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREAT.
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE
FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE MID ATLANTIC, WITH A TROUGH TRAILING FROM DE
S AND SW THROUGH CENTRAL NC. A SERIES OF OLD OUTFLOWS ALONG AND S OF
THIS FRONT GENERATED FROM DECAYING/DECAYED MCSS ARE ALREADY SPAWNING
CONVECTION OVER NC, WITH STORMS HAVING STARTED OVER THE E SLOPES OF
THE S APPALACHIANS AND FOOTHILLS DRIFTING SE INTO THE W PIEDMONT,
WHILE ANOTHER BROKEN BAND OF STORMS IS TRACKING FROM CENTRAL WV INTO
E KY, ALSO PUSHING SE. THESE BOUNDARIES WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SE
OVER VA/NC THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
CONVECTION OVER OUR AREA FEEDING ON HIGH PW (130-140% OF NORMAL) AND
3000-4000 J/KG OF SBCAPE, YIELDING A WET MICROBURST THREAT WITH THE
DEEPER CONVECTION, ALTHOUGH POOR DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT STORM
ORGANIZATION. COVERAGE SHOULD BE HIGHER OVER THE N THAN THE S, GIVEN
THE MID LEVEL RIDGING AND LOWER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES FURTHER S, BUT
A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM CAN'T BE RULED OUT ANYWHERE GIVEN THE STRONG
HEATING, HIGH MOISTURE, AND FAVORABLE INSTABILITY. ACTIVITY SHOULD
DWINDLE GRADUALLY DURING THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO FAVOR A SUBSTANTIAL OUTFLOW PASSAGE SSW THROUGH
MUCH OF CENTRAL NC TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT, WHILE THE SYNOPTIC FRONT
REMAINS WELL TO OUR N, ALIGNED VERTICALLY WITH THE STRONGER WNW MID
LEVEL STEERING FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS DIFFUSE
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SET UP OVER CENTRAL NC SAT ROUGHLY FROM THE
TRIAD REGION THROUGH THE CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN, AND N OF THIS FRONT
WILL SEE HIGHER LOW-LEVEL STABILITY AND A POOL OF SCT-BKN MORNING
STRATUS, WHICH SHOULD HELP HOLD TEMPS DOWN A BIT FROM TODAY'S
READINGS. BUT ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY, AMPLE HEATING AND
VERY WARM/MOIST AIR SHOULD SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE TO HIGH
AFTERNOON SBCAPE AMIDST CONTINUED-HIGH PW, THUS ISOLD TO SCTD STORMS
ARE AGAIN EXPECTED, WITH ANOTHER PRIMARY THREAT FROM DAMAGING
STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS, DESPITE BORDERLINE LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND POOR
DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR.
AS WE'LL STAY WITHIN THIS STEAMY AIR MASS INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH HOT TEMPS, HIGH HUMIDITY, AND ABOVE-NORMAL PW, ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. MOST
MODELS SHOW THE MID LEVEL RIDGE GRADUALLY FLATTENING, SINKING
SOUTHWARD AND GRADUALLY RETROGRADING TO ACROSS THE S PLAINS AND GULF
COAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH ANOTHER UPTICK IN WNW
MID LEVEL FLOW OVER OUR AREA. THUS, SCATTERED DIURNAL-FAVORED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH MID WEEK, ALTHOUGH
NOT EVERY PLACE WILL SEE ACTIVITY EVERY DAY.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1225 PM FRIDAY...
ALL CENTRAL NC TERMINALS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH
PRIMARILY SCT TO THIN BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS BASED ABOVE 10 KFT AND
MOSTLY SCT CLOUDS BASED AROUND 4-6 KFT BELOW IT, MAINLY ACROSS THE W
AND N. ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE TODAY AND
THIS EVENING (21Z-04Z) IN THE N CWA, MAINLY AFFECTING INT/GSO 18Z-
20Z THEN AFFECTING RDU AND RWI AFTER 20Z. AFTER 04Z, AS A WEAK
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SETTLES SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO CENTRAL NC, OUR NE
AREAS WILL SEE A GOOD CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF SCT-BKN IFR CLOUDS IN
THE EARLY MORNING (MAINLY 09Z-14Z) INCLUDING AT AND NEAR RDU/RWI.
BRIEF MVFR VSBYS IN FOG ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA AROUND
DAYBREAK. ANY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY 16Z.
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE W OR NW, SHIFTING LATE
TONIGHT TO N AND NE ESP OVER OUR NE AREAS.
LOOKING BEYOND 18Z SAT, SCATTERED LATE-DAY SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH MON, ALTHOUGH THE PREDICTABILITY OF THIS
WILL REMAIN RATHER LOW, REDUCING FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
LOCATION OF ANY STORMS. A FEW HOURS OF PATCHY EARLY-MORNING SUB-VFR
FOG/STRATUS MAY OCCUR EACH DAY, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN AREAS
THAT SEE RAIN.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
AUGUST 14: KRDU: 100/1995 KFAY: 100/1918
AUGUST 15: KFAY: 100/1935
AUGUST 17: KRDU: 99/1997 KFAY: 104/1954
AUGUST 18: KFAY: 98/1988
AUGUST 20: KFAY: 102/2007
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
AUGUST 14: KGSO: 75/2016 KRDU: 78/1995 KFAY: 77/2016
AUGUST 15: KGSO: 77/1995 KRDU: 77/1995 KFAY: 78/2017
AUGUST 16: KGSO: 75/2016 KRDU: 76/2007 KFAY: 78/2005
AUGUST 17: KGSO: 75/2010 KRDU: 76/2024 KFAY: 78/2007
AUGUST 18: KGSO: 75/2017 KRDU: 77/1995 KFAY: 78/2021
AUGUST 19: KRDU: 77/1988 KFAY: 76/1940
AUGUST 20: KGSO: 77/1912 KRDU: 75/2007 KFAY: 78/2005
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ025>028-040>043-
073>078-083>086-088-089.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ042-073>078-
083>086-088-089.
DISCUSSION...LEINS/HARTFIELD
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
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