067
FXUS62 KRAH 290100
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
900 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 205 PM FRIDAY...
1) THERE IS BOTH A THREAT FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. IN ADDITION, THERE IS A THREAT FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN MOST LOCATIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
2) A HOT START TO SEPTEMBER ACROSS CENTRAL NC.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 205 PM FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA IS UNDER A MARGINAL
(LEVEL 1 OF 5) RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS (EXCLUDING LOCATIONS
SOUTH AND EAST OF LILLINGTON AND SMITHFIELD), WITH DAMAGING WIND AS
THE THREAT. IN ADDITION, MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA IS UNDER A SLIGHT
(LEVEL 2 OF 4) RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (EXCLUDING THE TRIAD)
TODAY, AND MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA IS UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (EXCLUDING THE TRIAD) SATURDAY.
WHILE THE RADAR WAS QUIET THIS MORNING, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
BEGUN TO DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT PRIMARILY TO THE NORTH AND WEST
OF THE TRIAD AS OF 2:00PM. THE EFFECTIVE SHEAR ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA IS BETWEEN 25-30 KNOTS, WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE
AT LEAST SOME AMOUNT OF STORM ORGANIZATION. DEPENDING ON THE MODEL,
MLCAPE COULD BE ANYWHERE BETWEEN 500 AND 2000 J/KG. CONSIDERING THE
WIND SPEED THROUGHOUT THE VERTICAL PROFILE ARE NOT VERY HIGH, STORM
MOVEMENT WILL BE SLOW, ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TO
OCCUR. IT APPEARS THAT A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD
DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS WITH THE
FRONT AND TRACK SOUTHEAST, PASSING TO THE SOUTH OF THE TRIAD AND
PRIMARILY IMPACTING SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
STILL, CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO GO ABOVE A 50% CHANCE OF
RAIN IN ANY LOCATION. PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO PEAK IN
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON, AND GRADUALLY DECREASE DURING THE
EVENING. IN ADDITION, THERE WERE SOME COMPUTER MODELS INDICATING
THAT A HEAVIER AREA OF RAINFALL COULD DEVELOP NORTHEAST OF THE
TRIANGLE AFTER SUNSET.
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE ON SATURDAY, BUT WILL ESSENTIALLY DRIFT
OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE FINALLY MOVING OFFSHORE
SUNDAY. AS MORE OF THE AREA WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT,
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE 10-20% LESS ON SATURDAY
THAN TODAY. SLOW STORM MOVEMENT IS THE PRIMARY REASON FOR THE
MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
KEY MESSAGE 2... A HOT START TO SEPTEMBER ACROSS CENTRAL NC.
ALOFT, THE ~595 DAM MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO
AND SETTLE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID-WEEK. DISTURBANCES IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM MAY HELP PUSH THE RIDGE SOUTH AND WEST TOWARD THE
END OF THE WEEK, BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THAT REGARD. AT THE
SURFACE, A WEAK PRESSURE TROUGH MAY REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH, WHILE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES WWD ACROSS THE REGION.
EXPECT A SLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH
AT LEAST MID-WEEK, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A TROUGH TO AMPLIFY ACROSS
THE REGION LATE-WEEK. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, MAXING OUT ~1430 M ON MON TO POTENTIALLY
1440+ M BY WED AND THU. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE THROUGH MID-
WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 80S ON SUN, INCREASING TO MID/UPR
90S BY WED AND THU (10+ DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL). LOWS IN THE 70S
EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100-105 ARE
POSSIBLE TUE-THU ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NC, APART FROM THE NW
PIEDMONT. GIVEN THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF HEAT WITH LITTLE RELIEF
OVERNIGHT, THE WPC EXPERIMENTAL HEAT RISK CONTINUES TO SHOW MAJOR TO
EXTREME RISK OF HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS ACROSS CENTRAL NC, ESPECIALLY
WED AND THU.
AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 845 PM FRIDAY...
24-HOUR TAF PERIOD: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AN AREA OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS WHICH MAY RESULT
IN BRIEF SUB-VFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES. HOWEVER, THE WORST OF IT IS
STAYING TO THE WEST OF FAY AND TO THE SOUTH OF INT/GSO. OTHERWISE,
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING IN THE NE
PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN, SO HAVE PROB30 GROUPS AT RDU
AND RWI FOR THAT POTENTIAL. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD MOSTLY DIMINISH
AFTER 06Z, OTHER THAN POTENTIALLY SOME LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS IN
THE SOUTH AND EAST.
LOW STRATUS IS THEN EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR
CEILINGS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT AFTER 06Z. THIS
INCLUDES RDU, RWI AND FAY. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE,
PARTICULARLY IN AREAS WHERE IT RAINED TODAY. CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT TO
MVFR BY LATE MORNING AND VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON, MAINLY SOUTH AND
EAST OF A COLD FRONT WHICH LOOKS TO STALL OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER,
OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS THAN TODAY. BEHIND THE FRONT AT INT
AND GSO, CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD, THOUGH
A PERIOD OF MVFR STRATOCUMULUS IS STILL POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY
MORNING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT WILL TURN NE THEN E DURING
THE DAY ON SATURDAY, REMAINING AROUND 7 KTS OR LESS.
OUTLOOK: WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AGAIN FOR SUNDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER, FAY SHOULD BE THE ONLY TERMINAL WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY, AND RESTRICTIONS CAN'T BE RULED
OUT EACH DAY THERE AROUND SUNRISE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST SHOULD BE DRY AND VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...GREEN/10
AVIATION...DANCO/GREEN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page