694
FXUS62 KRAH 290554
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
155 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 205 PM FRIDAY...
1) THERE IS BOTH A THREAT FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. IN ADDITION, THERE IS A THREAT FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN MOST LOCATIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
2) A HOT START TO SEPTEMBER ACROSS CENTRAL NC.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 205 PM FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA IS UNDER A MARGINAL
(LEVEL 1 OF 5) RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS (EXCLUDING LOCATIONS
SOUTH AND EAST OF LILLINGTON AND SMITHFIELD), WITH DAMAGING WIND AS
THE THREAT. IN ADDITION, MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA IS UNDER A SLIGHT
(LEVEL 2 OF 4) RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (EXCLUDING THE TRIAD)
TODAY, AND MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA IS UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (EXCLUDING THE TRIAD) SATURDAY.
WHILE THE RADAR WAS QUIET THIS MORNING, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
BEGUN TO DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT PRIMARILY TO THE NORTH AND WEST
OF THE TRIAD AS OF 2:00PM. THE EFFECTIVE SHEAR ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA IS BETWEEN 25-30 KNOTS, WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE
AT LEAST SOME AMOUNT OF STORM ORGANIZATION. DEPENDING ON THE MODEL,
MLCAPE COULD BE ANYWHERE BETWEEN 500 AND 2000 J/KG. CONSIDERING THE
WIND SPEED THROUGHOUT THE VERTICAL PROFILE ARE NOT VERY HIGH, STORM
MOVEMENT WILL BE SLOW, ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TO
OCCUR. IT APPEARS THAT A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD
DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS WITH THE
FRONT AND TRACK SOUTHEAST, PASSING TO THE SOUTH OF THE TRIAD AND
PRIMARILY IMPACTING SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
STILL, CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO GO ABOVE A 50% CHANCE OF
RAIN IN ANY LOCATION. PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO PEAK IN
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON, AND GRADUALLY DECREASE DURING THE
EVENING. IN ADDITION, THERE WERE SOME COMPUTER MODELS INDICATING
THAT A HEAVIER AREA OF RAINFALL COULD DEVELOP NORTHEAST OF THE
TRIANGLE AFTER SUNSET.
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE ON SATURDAY, BUT WILL ESSENTIALLY DRIFT
OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE FINALLY MOVING OFFSHORE
SUNDAY. AS MORE OF THE AREA WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT,
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE 10-20% LESS ON SATURDAY
THAN TODAY. SLOW STORM MOVEMENT IS THE PRIMARY REASON FOR THE
MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
KEY MESSAGE 2... A HOT START TO SEPTEMBER ACROSS CENTRAL NC.
ALOFT, THE ~595 DAM MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO
AND SETTLE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID-WEEK. DISTURBANCES IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM MAY HELP PUSH THE RIDGE SOUTH AND WEST TOWARD THE
END OF THE WEEK, BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THAT REGARD. AT THE
SURFACE, A WEAK PRESSURE TROUGH MAY REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH, WHILE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES WWD ACROSS THE REGION.
EXPECT A SLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH
AT LEAST MID-WEEK, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A TROUGH TO AMPLIFY ACROSS
THE REGION LATE-WEEK. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, MAXING OUT ~1430 M ON MON TO POTENTIALLY
1440+ M BY WED AND THU. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE THROUGH MID-
WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 80S ON SUN, INCREASING TO MID/UPR
90S BY WED AND THU (10+ DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL). LOWS IN THE 70S
EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100-105 ARE
POSSIBLE TUE-THU ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NC, APART FROM THE NW
PIEDMONT. GIVEN THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF HEAT WITH LITTLE RELIEF
OVERNIGHT, THE WPC EXPERIMENTAL HEAT RISK CONTINUES TO SHOW MAJOR TO
EXTREME RISK OF HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS ACROSS CENTRAL NC, ESPECIALLY
WED AND THU.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 155 AM SATURDAY...
CONDITIONS ARE LARGELY VFR ACROSS THE AREA CURRENTLY, BUT THERE IS A
GOOD CHANCE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY MVFR VSBYS IN FOG AND AREAS
OF MVFR TO IFR CIGS AT ALL SITES, STARTING AROUND 09Z-10Z AND
LASTING UNTIL AROUND 14Z-16Z. NEWER HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS ARE NOT
IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS, HOWEVER, SO CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOW
SIDE, AND EITHER WAY, ANY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE LIMITED IN
SCOPE AND HIGHLY VARIABLE AT ANY PARTICULAR TAF SITE. THE RISK OF
IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS WILL BE HIGHEST AT LOCATIONS THAT SAW
NOTEWORTHY RAIN YESTERDAY, MAINLY AT FAY AND POINTS W AND NW TOWARD
INT/GSO. OTHERWISE, MAINLY SCT MID AND SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER CENTRAL NC TODAY, ESPECIALLY OVER THE E
HALF. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE AFTER 16Z, ALTHOUGH
SCTD SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING (17Z-23Z), MAINLY AT FAY WITH A LOWER CHANCE AT RDU/RWI AND
LOWER STILL AT INT/GSO, AND BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR IN AND
NEAR ANY SUCH SHOWERS/STORMS. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT, UNDER
8 KTS, MAINLY FROM THE NE BUT SHIFTING TO BE FROM THE E AND SE.
LOOKING BEYOND 06Z SUN, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS 08Z-
13Z EARLY SUN MORNING AT FAY, OTHERWISE AS MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE AREA WITH DRIER WEATHER, VFR CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY TO DOMINATE FROM SUN THROUGH WED.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...GREEN/10
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
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