217
FXUS62 KRAH 291800
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
200 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 200 PM SATURDAY...
1) SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY WITH LOCALIZED AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE. LESSER STORM COVERAGE ON SUNDAY, THEN TURNING DRIER FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEK AHEAD.
2) A HOT START TO SEPTEMBER ACROSS CENTRAL NC.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 200 PM SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY WITH LOCALIZED AREAS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. LESSER STORM COVERAGE ON SUNDAY,
THEN TURNING DRIER FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK AHEAD.
EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A WEAK BAGGY TROUGH
ALOFT WITH BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. LOW AND MID
LEVEL WV CHANNELS DEPICTS A DEEPER PLUME OF MOISTURE ALONG AND EAST
OF US-1 WITH MARKEDLY DRIER AIR TO THE WEST. PW'S THIS MORNING WERE
SAMPLED AT AROUND 1.4" PER 12Z KGSO SOUNDING WHILE NEARLY 2.3" AT
KMHX. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS STRETCHED
ACROSS NC FROM EAST TO WEST (GENERALLY ALONG US-64). THIS WAS THE
FOCAL AREA FOR ISOLATED SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING AS
A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES RODE ALONG THE FRONT.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY, WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL DRIFT
NORTHWARD FROM SC INTO NC WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT WHICH WE
ARE ALREADY SEEING. GIVEN THE ABUNDANCE OF CLOUD COVER FROM THIS
MORNING, SURFACE BASED AND MIXED LAYER INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING
(STILL AROUND 1500 J/KG BUT A FAR CRY FROM THE 2000-3000 J/KG THAT
HAD BEEN READILY AVAILABLE THE LAST FEW DAYS). THIS, COMBINED WITH
WEAK EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES LESS THAN 20KTS, SHOULD KEEP MOST STORMS
BELOW SEVERE THRESHOLDS ALTHOUGH A FEW STRONG GUSTS CAN'T BE RULED
OUT WITH THE DEEPEST STORMS. THUS THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM SLOW
MOVING STORMS REMAINS PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED FLOODING.
GIVEN MEAGER INSTABILITY AND A GRADUAL EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
STRONGEST FORCING, SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH GREATLY
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. POPS TODAY ARE HIGHEST SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE TRIANGLE, WITH LESSER VALUES ACROSS THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT. A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER NEAR THE NC/SC BORDER LATE
TONIGHT AS THE BAGGY UPPER TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA BUT THESE
SHOULD BE FAIRLY ISOLATED IN NATURE.
LOOKING AHEAD TO SUNDAY, EVEN FEWER INGREDIENTS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR
SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE ALL BUT
WASHED OUT BY SUNDAY MORNING AND PW'S WILL BE EVEN LOWER AREA-WIDE,
ALTHOUGH A PW GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN
AND A FEW SHOWERS CAN'T BE RULED OUT ALONG AND EAST OF I-95 SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES WHICH BEGIN ON SUNDAY
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AT STRONG RIDGING SETS UP
OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN GREATLY DIMINISHED
STORM CHANCES AS WE GET INTO THE WEEK WITH VERY LITTLE/IF ANY STORM
ACTIVITY UNTIL AT LEAST THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2... A HOT START TO SEPTEMBER ACROSS CENTRAL NC.
ALOFT, THE ~595 DAM MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO
AND SETTLE OVER THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK. DISTURBANCES
IN THE NORTHERN STREAM MAY HELP PUSH THE RIDGE SOUTH AND WEST TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK, BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THAT REGARD. AT THE
SURFACE, A WEAK PRESSURE TROUGH MAY REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH, WHILE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES WWD ACROSS THE REGION.
EXPECT A SLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH
AT LEAST MID-WEEK, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A TROUGH TO AMPLIFY ACROSS
THE REGION LATE-WEEK. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, MAXING OUT ~1430 M ON MON TO POTENTIALLY
1440+ M FOR WED-FRI. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE THROUGH MID-WEEK,
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 80S ON SUN, INCREASING TO MID/UPR 90S FOR
WED-FRI (10+ DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL). SOME LOCATIONS COULD REACH 100
DEGREES WED AND THU. LOWS IN THE 70S EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK. HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100-105 ARE POSSIBLE TUE-THU ACROSS MUCH
OF CENTRAL NC, APART FROM THE NW PIEDMONT. GIVEN THE PROLONGED
PERIOD OF HEAT WITH LITTLE RELIEF OVERNIGHT, THE WPC EXPERIMENTAL
HEAT RISK CONTINUES TO SHOW MAJOR TO EXTREME RISK OF HEAT-RELATED
IMPACTS ACROSS CENTRAL NC, ESPECIALLY WED AND THU. HEAT ADVISORIES
MAY BE NEEDED SHOULD THE FORECAST HOLD.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 200 PM SATURDAY...
STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH THE GREATEST
CHANCE OF SUB-VFR RESTRICTIONS GENERALLY FROM RDU SOUTH AND EASTWARD
(INCLUDING RWI AND FAY). WILL INCLUDE A FEW HOURS OF TEMPOS FOR
THUNDER UNTIL AROUND 22Z-00Z. STORM CHANCES AND RELATED VSBY/CIG
RESTRICTIONS ARE LESS ACROSS THE TRIAD SITES WITH ONLY SOME PROB30
MENTIONS OF BRIEF NON-VFR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH 22Z. LATER TONIGHT
THERE IS A STRONG SIGNAL FOR FOG/STRATUS WITHIN WEAK NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW AND SEVERAL HOURS OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE LIKELY LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING SUNDAY AT ALL SITES.
OUTLOOK: LOOKING AT SUNDAY AND BEYOND, STORM CHANCES WILL BE ON THE
DECREASE ESPECIALLY FROM MONDAY ONWARD. WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE, MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AT ALL
SITES THROUGH LATE WEEK.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
SEPTEMBER 1: KRDU: 101/1932
SEPTEMBER 2: KRDU: 99/1912
SEPTEMBER 3: KRDU: 99/2010 KFAY: 101/2010
SEPTEMBER 4: KRDU: 100/1925 KFAY: 100/1944
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
AUGUST 31: KGSO: 73/2012
SEPTEMBER 1: KGSO: 74/2012 KRDU: 76/1932 KFAY: 77/2021
SEPTEMBER 2: KGSO: 73/1912 KRDU: 75/1912 KFAY: 75/2020
SEPTEMBER 3: KGSO: 73/2020 KRDU: 78/1933 KFAY: 77/2020
SEPTEMBER 4: KGSO: 72/2018 KRDU: 74/1921 KFAY: 75/2020
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...LEINS/10
AVIATION...LEINS
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