937
FXUS62 KRAH 310604
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
200 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* TIMING OF THE STRATUS AND FOG (MAINLY EXPECTED BETWEEN 08Z AND
13Z).
* NBM CONTINUES ON THE HIGHER EXTREME FOR THE HEAT THIS WEEK, EC
ENSEMBLES APPEAR MORE IN LINE. PEAK OF THE HEAT WILL LIKELY BE
THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH SOME COOLING WITH BETTER CHANCE OF PM
THUNDERSTORMS BY FRIDAY.
* LABOR DAY WEEKEND TRENDING COOLER. DRIER, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 200 AM MONDAY...
1) LOW STRATUS AND FOG MAINLY FROM RALEIGH SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH
MID-MORNING. HEAT RETURNS TODAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 90.
2) PEAK OF THE HEAT WILL LIKELY BE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S, HEAT INDICES OF 105+ IN THE CLIMO
FAVORED EASTERN PIEDMONT SOUTH AND EAST TO THE COAST. SOME COOLING
WITH BETTER CHANCE OF PM THUNDERSTORMS BY FRIDAY.
3) LABOR DAY WEEKEND SATURDAY THROUGH LABOR DAY WILL BE COOLER WITH
A LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS SOUTH AND EAST SATURDAY. SUNDAY
AND LABOR DAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 200 AM MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... LOW STRATUS AND FOG MAINLY FROM RALEIGH SOUTH AND
EAST THROUGH MID-MORNING. HOT WEATHER RETURNS WITH HIGHS AROUND 90
TODAY.
SOME PATCHY FOG HAD ALREADY DEVELOPED IN THE PAST HOUR AND
ADDITIONAL FOG/STRATUS IS EXPECTED IN MOST AREAS BY 09Z. THE
EXCEPTIONS MAY BE THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT WHERE THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOT AS HIGH.
AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED IN SOME AREAS FROM RALEIGH SOUTH AND EAST TO GOLDSBORO IF FOG
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD AND LESS THAN 1/4 MILE.
IT WILL BE HOTTER TODAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE
PLAINS. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WILL YIELD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
KEY MESSAGE 2... PEAK OF THE HEAT WILL LIKELY BE TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S, HEAT INDICES OF 105+ IN
THE CLIMO FAVORED EASTERN PIEDMONT SOUTH AND EAST TO THE COAST. SOME
COOLING WITH BETTER CHANCE OF PM THUNDERSTORMS BY FRIDAY.
THE STRONG UPPER RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EAST FROM OK/KS TO THE
TN/NC REGION BY LATE THURSDAY. AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE,
THE SW FLOW WILL BRING HIGH HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO ALL THE REGION THIS
WEEK. THE GUIDANCE IS NOT TERRIBLY STRONG WITH UPPER HEIGHTS AS IN
THE EARLY JULY HEAT WAVE IN WHICH THE H5 HEIGHTS TOPPED OUT AT
5990M. THIS ONE MAY PEAK OUT IN THE IN THE 5950M. OR ABOUT 40M
WEAKER. REGARDLESS, THE SUN ANGLE IS LOWER, THE SOIL MOISTURE IS
SPOTTY BUT WETTER, IT IS VISUALLY GREENER, AND THE NBM CONTINUES TO
OVERHEAT. IT WILL BE AN EARLY SEPTEMBER HEAT WAVE, BUT MORE TAME
THAN THE EARLY JULY HEAT WAVE.
EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY HOT DAYS AND CLEAR, WARM NIGHTS TUE-THURSDAY
NIGHT. LOWS IN THE 70S. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. HEAT INDICES
OF 105-109 FROM RALEIGH SOUTH AND EASTWARD WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
(WHEN THIS HEAT WAVE PEAKS FOR US).
BY FRIDAY, A DISTURBANCE IN THE NW FLOW SHOULD BEAT DOWN THE UPPER
RIDGE FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES LATE IN THE
DAY THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGHS FRIDAY (LOWER TO MID 90S) WITH A CHANCE
OF PM THUNDERSTORMS.
KEY MESSAGE 3... LABOR DAY WEEKEND WILL BE COOLER WITH A LINGERING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS SOUTH AND EAST SATURDAY. SUNDAY AND LABOR
DAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.
THE MID/UPPER HEIGHTS FALL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WITH A SURFACE FRONT
LIKELY TO PUSH SOUTH AND EAST TO NEAR THE COAST SATURDAY. THE BETTER
CHANCES OF STORMS SHOULD PUSH TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TRIANGLE
SATURDAY. SUNDAY AND LABOR DAY HAVE BEEN TRENDING DRIER AND COOLER.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 80S. LOWS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 SE.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 200 AM MONDAY...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY: FOG IS POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH 12-
14Z MONDAY, ESPECIALLY FROM RDU TO FAY AND RWI NC. CONFIDENCE IN FOG
IS LOWER AT GSO AND INT WHERE MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS SKIES CLEAR.
VFR IS THEN EXPECTED AREAWIDE BY MID-MORNING THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF STRATUS AND FOG AGAIN AROUND KRWI AND
KFAY EARLY TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY. THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD RETURN BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
LINGER IN THE EAST ON SATURDAY.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
SEPTEMBER 2: KRDU: 99/1912
SEPTEMBER 3: KRDU: 99/2010 KFAY: 101/2010
SEPTEMBER 4: KRDU: 100/1925 KFAY: 100/1944
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
SEPTEMBER 2: KGSO: 73/1912 KRDU: 75/1912 KFAY: 75/2020
SEPTEMBER 3: KGSO: 73/2020 KRDU: 78/1933 KFAY: 77/2020
SEPTEMBER 4: KGSO: 72/2018 KRDU: 74/1921 KFAY: 75/2020
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BADGETT
AVIATION...BADGETT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page