512
FXUS62 KRAH 010555
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
155 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH WAS CONSIDERED FOR THE TRIANGLE AND
COASTAL PLAIN WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. IT APPEARS THAT WE WILL FALL
A BIT SHORT OF THE CRITERIA OF 110+ HEAT INDEX VALUES.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 155 AM TUESDAY...
1) THE HEAT WAVE WILL PEAK WITH HEAT ADVISORIES LIKELY FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THE AREA FROM WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.
2) LABOR DAY WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY GRADUALLY TRENDS COOLER AND
DRIER WITH A LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 150 AM TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... THE HEAT WAVE WILL PEAK WITH HEAT ADVISORIES LIKELY
FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA FROM WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.
THE HIGH HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL REALLY GET GOING THIS AFTERNOON WHEN
HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 90S. HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
JUST SHORT OF THE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 105 DEGREES FOR SEVERAL
HOURS. MOST AREAS FROM THE TRIANGLE EAST AND SOUTH WILL HAVE HEAT
INDICES OF 100 TO 104, THUS IT WOULD STILL BE A GOOD IDEA TO PREPARE
FOR THE DAY AS IF AN ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.
THE HEAT WILL PEAK THIS WEEK FROM WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS IS
WHEN THE UPPER RIDGE WILL PARK OVERHEAD AT 595DM OVERHEAD OF THE TN
VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THIS IS SLIGHTLY LOWER HEIGHTS
THAN WHAT WAS OBSERVED DURING THE EARLY JULY HEAT WAVE. OTHER THAN
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM, CHANCES LESS THAN 15 PERCENT AT ANY ONE
POINT, EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY HOT DAYS AND VERY WARM AND HUMID NIGHTS
FROM TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HIGHS SHOULD BE HOTTEST WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY (MID 90S TO NEAR 100), WITH FRIDAY POTENTIALLY AS HOT.
EVEN OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR MANY AREAS.
AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH WAS CONSIDERED FOR THE TRIANGLE AND COASTAL
PLAIN FOR WED-FRI (AS OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STRUGGLE TO FALL BELOW 80
AND HEAT INDICES POTENTIALLY APPROACH 110 DURING THE PEAK OF THE
AFTERNOON HEAT EACH DAY). WE HELD OFF FOR NOW - BUT IT WILL BE
CONSIDERED IN LATER SHIFTS.
HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 105 DEGREES ARE
EXPECTED EACH DAY WITH AREAS FROM RALEIGH EAST AND SOUTH WILL BE
MOST LIKELY TO SURPASS 105 DEGREES. SOME AREAS MAY APPROACH 110
DEGREES DURING PEAK HEATING. HEAT ADVISORIES APPEAR LIKELY.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF MAINLY PM THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AND SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST FOR
A TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL BACK OFF SOME, ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WHEN MOSTLY MID TO UPPER 80S ARE EXPECTED.
KEY MESSAGE 2...LABOR DAY WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY GRADUALLY
TRENDS COOLER AND DRIER WITH A LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THAT THE HOT ANOMALOUS RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD THIS
COMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE IS PROJECTING THE
RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO THE MIDWEST TO CENTRAL PLAINS OF THE US BY
SATURDAY.
AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS WEST, TROUGHING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
NE US IS FAVORED TO TAKE OVER. THIS TROUGHING WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT THAT APPROACHES SATURDAY AND IS
FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH BY SUNDAY. DEPENDING ON HOW THE PATTERN
EVOLVES, SOME MODELS SUGGEST COOL 1026-MB HIGH PRESSURE COULD
EXTEND INTO THE AREA BY LABOR DAY, FAVORING HIGHS FOR THE LATTER
PART OF THIS WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S.
DEWPOINTS COULD DIP INTO THE 50S ON MONDAY, A WELCOME CHANGE.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WE SHOULD SEE STORM CHANCES INCREASE. THOSE
CHANCES MAY INITIALLY START FRIDAY WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH,
BUT BETTER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
ISOLATED OR SCATTERED STORMS COULD LINGER INTO SUNDAY, THOUGH
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED AS WE HEAD INTO LABOR DAY. RIGHT
NOW, WE ARE NOT OUTLOOKED FROM SPC. HOWEVER, THEIR LONG-RANGE
DISCUSSION DOES INDICATE A POSSIBLE SEVERE RISK OVER THE
CAROLINAS SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PREDICTABILITY, HOWEVER,
IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME, BUT WILL BE MONITORED AS WE GO THROUGH
THE WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 150 AM TUESDAY...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z/WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE REGION.
LOOKING BEYOND 12Z WED, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE INTO FRIDAY.
THE CHANCE OF PM THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FRI/SAT AS DEEP LOW
PRESSURE AND TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES NUDGES THE RIDGE
WESTWARD, THUS THE CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL RISE STARTING
LATE FRI.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
SEPTEMBER 1: KGSO: 99/1932 KRDU: 101/1932
SEPTEMBER 2: KGSO: 101/1921 KRDU: 99/1912
SEPTEMBER 3: KGSO: 101/1921 KRDU: 99/2010 KFAY: 101/2010
SEPTEMBER 4: KRDU: 100/1925 KFAY: 100/1944
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
SEPTEMBER 1: KGSO: 74/2012 KRDU: 76/1932 KFAY: 77/2021
SEPTEMBER 2: KGSO: 73/1912 KRDU: 75/1912 KFAY: 75/2020
SEPTEMBER 3: KGSO: 73/2020 KRDU: 78/1933 KFAY: 77/2020
SEPTEMBER 4: KGSO: 72/2018 KRDU: 74/1921 KFAY: 75/2020
SEPTEMBER 5: KGSO: 73/2018 KRDU: 74/2012 KFAY: 74/1935
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BADGETT
AVIATION...BADGETT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page