669
FXUS62 KRAH 012244
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
645 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY FROM 11 AM UNTIL
8 PM. HEAT INDEX VALUES OF UP TO 107 DEGREES SHOULD BE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE ADVISORY AREA.
* SPC HAS INTRODUCED A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS
IN OUR NE ZONES THU AND FRI.
* SLIGHT TREND IN THE GUIDANCE TOWARD MILDER TEMPERATURES POST-
FRONTAL SUNDAY TO TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...
1) A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY 11 AM UNTIL 8
PM. ANOMALOUSLY HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO
FRIDAY.
2) LABOR DAY WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY GRADUALLY TRENDS COOLER
ALONG WITH HIGHEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY
11 AM UNTIL 8 PM. ANOMALOUSLY HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST INTO FRIDAY.
A DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OF AROUND 596 DAM SLIDING EAST INTO
THE TN VALLEY IN THE 12Z H5 RAOBS THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO
WOBBLE GRADUALLY EASTWARD AND STRETCH OVER THE CAROLINAS BY
THURS MORNING. HIGHLY ANOMALOUS H850 TEMPERATURES (AT-OR-ABOVE
THE 99.5 PERCENTILE) INITIALLY DIRECTED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND
LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY, WILL GRADUALLY WARM TO AROUND 20-22C
AND SLOWLY BE DIRECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC WED
THROUGH FRI. THIS PATTERN IS HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR AN EARLY
SEPTEMBER HEAT WAVE WITH MINIMAL CONVECTIVE CHANCES DUE TO
INFLUENCE FROM THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
LOW-LVL THICKNESSES AND DIABATIC TECHNIQUES LINE UP WITH
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE AND SUPPORTS WIDESPREAD MID/UPPER 90S
CONTINUING THROUGH FRI. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY REACH TRIPLE DIGIT
AIR TEMPERATURES, BUT WIDESPREAD GREATER THAN 100 DEGREES IS NOT
EXPECTED. HEAT INDEX VALUES SOUTH AND EAST OF RALEIGH ARE
LIKELY TO REACH IF NOT ECLIPSE 105 DEGREES FOR SEVERAL HOURS DUE
TO BETTER LOW-LVL MOISTURE IN PLACE. ADDITIVELY, WEAK SURFACE
WINDS AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL COMPOUND THE RISK FOR HEAT
RELATED ILLNESSES, ESPECIALLY INDIVIDUALS SENSITIVE TO THE HEAT
OR PARTAKE IN STRENUOUS OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES IN THE AFTERNOON
DURING PEAK HEATING. ANYONE WITHOUT EFFECTIVE OVERNIGHT COOLING
IS AT GREATER RISK FOR HEAT ILLNESS AS SEVERAL DAYS WITH
ANOMALOUSLY WARM OVERNIGHT LOW IN THE UPPER 70S WILL PROVIDE
MINIMAL RELIEF FROM HOT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND HUMID
CONDITIONS. AS SUCH, A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WED (11
AM UNTIL 8 PM). THIS IS ONLY THE 3RD HEAT ADVISORY ISSUED IN
THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER BY THE RALEIGH OFFICE AND THE FIRST SINCE
2020. ADDITIONAL HEAT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH
FRI.
INCREASING CONVECTIVE CHANCES, AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND
NORTHEAST FLOW IN ITS WAKE SHOULD PUT AN END TO THE DANGEROUS
HEAT BY SUN.
KEY MESSAGE 2...LABOR DAY WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY GRADUALLY
TRENDS COOLER ALONG WITH HIGHEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.
ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A GRADUAL
WESTWARD SHIFT OF THE ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER-RIDGE. COME
THURSDAY, IT IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS, BUT SLIDING WEST TOWARD THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE CONTINUE TO WATCH AS
THAT HAPPENS A MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING, ESPECIALLY
FRIDAY ONWARD. THIS PATTERN SHIFT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING LATE FRIDAY BUT ESPECIALLY SATURDAY, BEFORE
MOVING THROUGH FOR SUNDAY.
THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS FAVORED LATE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DURING PEAK AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS,
PRE-FRONTAL AND ALONG THE FRONT. GIVEN THE ATMOSPHERIC SETUP,
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. SPC HAS
INTRODUCED A DAY 4 SLIGHT RISK ACROSS OUR NE COUNTIES FRIDAY.
ADD TO THAT, ML/AI GUIDANCE ALSO FAVORS A SEVERE RISK ON
SATURDAY, THOUGH ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS DIFFER ON
THE FRONTAL POSITION AND SPEED. SOMETHING THAT IS ALSO NEW IS
THAT SPC DID INCLUDE A VERY SMALL AREA OF A MARGINAL RISK
THURSDAY EVENING ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES.
SOME DETERMINISTIC SCENARIOS AND NEARLY HALF OF THE EPS MEMBERS
SHOW A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE RIDING THE RIDGE TO FAVOR SOME LOW-
END STORM CHANCES IN OUR NE THURSDAY EVENING.
THERE IS A SMALL BUT NOTICEABLE SIGNAL THAT ONCE THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH, WE MAY NOT COOL OFF AS MUCH AS ORIGINALLY
ADVERTISED. SOME ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS HANG THE
FRONT JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, RESULTING
IN HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S AND PERHAPS NOT AS LESS
HUMID. HOW THAT WILL TREND IN THE COMING DAYS REMAINS TO BE
SEEN, BUT NEVERTHELESS IT SHOULD BE DRIER WITH JUST ISOLATED
AFTERNOON STORMS THROUGH THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 645 PM TUESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE, AT ALL
CENTRAL NC TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THE REGION. THE CHANCE FOR A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM APPEARS
VERY LOW THROUGH WED, AND EVEN IF ONE DOES DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY
WED, ITS PROXIMITY TO A TAF SITE IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. ADDITIONALLY,
AN HOUR OR TWO OF MVFR VSBYS IN FOG CAN'T BE RULED OUT NEAR FAY 10Z-
12Z EARLY WED MORNING, BUT AT THIS TIME THE CHANCE IS TOO LOW TO
MENTION IN THE TERMINAL FORECAST. SURFACE WINDS WILL STAY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE.
LOOKING BEYOND 00Z THU, TERMINALS ARE LIKELY TO STAY DRY AND VFR
THROUGH FRI MORNING, ALTHOUGH THE CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE FRI AFTERNOON AND REMAIN
HIGH SAT AND SUN AS A COLD FRONT SLIPS SOUTHWARD INTO NC.
CLIMATE
OUR FORECAST HIGHS AND LOWS ARE WITHIN ABOUT 3 DEGREES OF THE DAILY
RECORDS LISTED BELOW.
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
SEPTEMBER 2: KRDU: 99/1912
SEPTEMBER 3: KGSO: 101/1921 KRDU: 99/2010 KFAY: 101/2010
SEPTEMBER 4: KGSO: 100/1925 KRDU: 100/1925 KFAY: 100/1944
SEPTEMBER 5: KRDU: 98/2023 KFAY: 99/1932
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
SEPTEMBER 2: KGSO: 73/1912 KRDU: 75/1912 KFAY: 75/2020
SEPTEMBER 3: KGSO: 73/2020 KRDU: 78/1933 KFAY: 77/2020
SEPTEMBER 4: KGSO: 72/2018 KRDU: 74/1921 KFAY: 75/2020
SEPTEMBER 5: KGSO: 73/2018 KRDU: 74/2012 KFAY: 74/1935
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ010-011-
024>028-040>043-075>078-084>086-088-089.
DISCUSSION...AS/AK
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
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