125
FXUS62 KRAH 020655
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
253 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* HEAT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED AT LEAST THROUGH FRIDAY.
* AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM IS POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN THE NE COASTAL
PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 251 AM WEDNESDAY...
1) A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY 11 AM UNTIL 8
PM. ANOMALOUSLY HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO
FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY. HEAT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED.
2) LABOR DAY WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY GRADUALLY TRENDS COOLER
ALONG WITH HIGHEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 251 AM WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY
11 AM UNTIL 8 PM. ANOMALOUSLY HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST INTO FRIDAY.
THE HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE EASTERN PIEDMONT
THROUGH THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN.
EVEN AT THIS LATE HOUR (OR EARLY FOR SOME) - AT 200 AM - IT WAS
STILL 80+ DEGREES IN THE URBAN CENTERS OF THE TRIAD, TRIANGLE, AND
FAYETTEVILLE. WE WILL DEFINITELY BE OFF AND RUNNING WHEN THE SUN
RISES. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE 97-100 RANGE IN
MOST AREAS. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL VERY NEAR 100 IN THE NW AND 105+
IN THE ADVISORY AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. AGAIN, IT WILL BE SLOW
TO FALL BELOW 90 THIS EVENING, AND 80 AT 300 AM THURSDAY.
EXPECT ADDITIONAL HEAT ADVISORIES THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PM THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY
IN THE NE COASTAL PLAIN, WHERE SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE WITH THE
SURFACE TROUGH MAY WORK WITH MLCAPES IN EXCESS OF 2500 J/KG TO FORCE
A STORM OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON. WE DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING MORE THAN
ISOLATED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PM STORMS AGAIN DURING PEAK HEATING
THURSDAY; HOWEVER, THE CHANCE IS ESSENTIALLY OVER AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS WITH DIFFERENTIAL HEATING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...LABOR DAY WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY GRADUALLY
TRENDS COOLER ALONG WITH HIGHEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SATURDAY -
SHIFTING SE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL GO UP SOMEWHAT FRIDAY, MAINLY IN
THE NORTH AND EAST AS SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES MAY SEND OUTFLOWS FROM VA CONVECTION INTO THE REGION LATE IN
THE DAY.
THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE SATURDAY AS THE
BACKDOOR FRONT AND OUTFLOWS WORK THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT WILL REMAIN HOT AND BECOME UNSTABLE AIDING
IN THE LOW LEVEL FORCING WITH THE BOUNDARIES TO WORK WITH.
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST
AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A COOLER AND MORE STABLE
NE FLOW SETS UP. HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S WILL BE MUCH
MORE TOLERABLE FOR MOST!
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 130 AM WEDNESDAY...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z/THURSDAY.
LOOKING BEYOND 06Z THU, TERMINALS ARE LIKELY TO STAY DRY AND VFR
THROUGH FRI MORNING, ALTHOUGH THE CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE FRI AFTERNOON AND REMAIN
HIGH SAT AND SUN AS A COLD FRONT SLIPS SOUTHWARD INTO NC.
CLIMATE
OUR FORECAST HIGHS AND LOWS ARE WITHIN ABOUT 3 DEGREES OF THE DAILY
RECORDS LISTED BELOW.
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
SEPTEMBER 2: KRDU: 99/1912
SEPTEMBER 3: KGSO: 101/1921 KRDU: 99/2010 KFAY: 101/2010
SEPTEMBER 4: KGSO: 100/1925 KRDU: 100/1925 KFAY: 100/1944
SEPTEMBER 5: KRDU: 98/2023 KFAY: 99/1932
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
SEPTEMBER 2: KGSO: 73/1912 KRDU: 75/1912 KFAY: 75/2020
SEPTEMBER 3: KGSO: 73/2020 KRDU: 78/1933 KFAY: 77/2020
SEPTEMBER 4: KGSO: 72/2018 KRDU: 74/1921 KFAY: 75/2020
SEPTEMBER 5: KGSO: 73/2018 KRDU: 74/2012 KFAY: 74/1935
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ010-011-
024>028-040>043-075>078-084>086-088-089.
DISCUSSION...BADGETT
AVIATION...PWB/HARTFIELD
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