749
FXUS62 KRAH 181926
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
325 PM EDT FRI SEP 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 325 PM FRIDAY...
1) STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, GENERALLY TO THE WEST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR.
2) SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.
3) A CAD PATTERN LOOKS TO SET UP FROM MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK,
RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES, PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE, AND
BELOW-NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 325 PM FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, GENERALLY TO THE WEST OF
THE I-95 CORRIDOR.
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS EXPANDED IN COVERAGE EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS ADVANCING FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. AS OF 2PM, THE FRONT IS IN VIRGINIA,
GENERALLY PARALLEL TO THE VA/NC STATE BORDER, BUT IT APPEARS THAT
THE FRONT SHOULD SLOW DOWN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS,
FINALLY PUSHING SOUTH INTO NORTH CAROLINA AFTER MIDNIGHT. IN NORTH
CAROLINA, MLCAPE VALUES ARE ANYWHERE BETWEEN 1000 AND 2500 J/KG,
WITH THE GREATEST VALUES NEAR THE TRIAD. DCAPE VALUES ALSO HAVE THE
GREATEST VALUES NEAR THE TRIAD, JUST ABOVE 1000 J/KG. ALTHOUGH WIND
SHEAR SHOULD BE MINIMAL AND WILL NOT DO MUCH TO ORGANIZE
THUNDERSTORMS, THE 12Z HREF IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A
CLUSTER OF STORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE TRIAD AND MOVE FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. IN FACT, IF THE MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY BEHIND
ON THEIR INITIALIZATION, THE STORMS THAT ARE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE
TRIAD WILL LIKELY BE THE CLUSTER THAT MOVES TO THE SOUTH. THE
GREATEST COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND AS FAR EAST AS THE TRIANGLE,
ALTHOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE SCATTERED FARTHER EAST ACROSS ROCKY
MOUNT AND GOLDSBORO. THE SPC MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) GENERALLY
EXTENDS FROM INTERSTATE 95 TO THE WEST, WITH THE GREATEST THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER BETWEEN 4 AND 9PM. DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE THREAT.
MOST PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO AN END AFTER MIDNIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2... SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
AS A MID/UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK, A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
CENTRAL NC FROM THE NORTH ON MONDAY, PASSING THROUGH THE REGION ON
TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, A WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS WILL PREVAIL,
WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER-80S TO LOWER-90S ON MONDAY BEFORE
BECOMING COOLER (WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL) FOR TUESDAY. PW
VALUES WILL BE AROUND 2-2.25 INCHES (125-150% OF NORMAL) BOTH DAYS
AS SW FLOW ALOFT BRINGS GULF MOISTURE INTO THE CAROLINAS. THIS
COMBINED WITH WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL BE BENEFICIAL FOR
THE ONGOING DROUGHT BUT COULD BRING LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WITH
HOURLY AMOUNTS OF 2+ INCHES POSSIBLE WHERE STORMS MERGE OR TRAIN.
THUS WPC HAS THE ENTIRE REGION IN A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 4) RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH A SLIGHT (LEVEL 2
OF 4) RISK OVER OUR FAR NORTH.
KEY MESSAGE 3... A CAD PATTERN LOOKS TO SET UP FROM MID TO LATE NEXT
WEEK, RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES, PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE, AND BELOW-NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES.
MID/UPPER TROUGHING WILL STRENGTHEN AND BUILD INTO THE EASTERN US
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MEANWHILE, ANOMALOUSLY STRONG SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE DOWN FROM SE CANADA AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
INTO THE LEE SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS, AS A SURFACE LOW DRIFTS NORTH
IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, THOUGH MODELS DIFFER SUBSTANTIALLY ON ITS
PLACEMENT. THIS WILL RESULT IN ROBUST N/NE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND A
LIKELY CAD PATTERN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. CURRENT
FORECAST HIGHS ARE IN THE UPPER-60S TO UPPER-70S, BUT SOME RAW
GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE GFS IS EVEN COOLER. FORECAST LOWS ARE GENERALLY
MID-50S TO MID-60S. POPS ARE IN THE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE RANGE, AND
GIVEN THE STABLE CAD REGIME, PRECIPITATION IS MORE LIKELY TO BE OF
THE STRATIFORM VARIETY (PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE) AS OPPOSED TO
CONVECTIVE.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 130 PM FRIDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA, WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE AROUND INT/GSO. THE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, AND TEMPO GROUPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH
GUSTY WIND WERE MAINTAINED AT 4 OF 5 TAF SITES - CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH A TEMPO GROUP AS FAR EAST AS RWI. INT JUST
HAD A WIND GUST TO 31 KT WITH IFR VISIBILITY, AND THIS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT EACH OF THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
AFTER CONVECTION COMES TO AN END TONIGHT, IFR/LIFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, ALTHOUGH
AGAIN, THERE IS SLIGHTLY LESS CONFIDENCE AS FAR EAST AS RWI WITH THE
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND WHETHER CEILINGS WILL FORM. WHILE THERE
COULD BE SOME MINIMAL VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS, LOW CEILINGS WILL
DRIVE THE FLIGHT CATEGORY. CONDITIONS MAY BE SLOW TO SCATTER OUT
SATURDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK: THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL TERMINALS, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE AT FAY. MVFR
CEILINGS APPEAR LIKELY TO DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. AFTER MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT, EXPECT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY,
EVENTUALLY BECOMING MORE SCATTERED. RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS WELL.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...GREEN/DANCO
AVIATION...GREEN
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