688
FXUS62 KRAH 182352
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
750 PM EDT FRI SEP 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* UPDATE TO DISCUSSION AND AVIATION FORECAST SECTIONS.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 750 PM FRIDAY...
1) SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.
2) A CAD PATTERN LOOKS TO SET UP FROM MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK,
RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES, PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE, AND
BELOW-NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 750 PM FRIDAY...
SHOWERS AND LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS HAVE ESSENTIALLY MOVED SE OF THE
REGION OR WILL SO BY 900 PM (GOLDSBORO).
OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR STRATUS AND FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT MAINLY
AFTER 300 AM, WITH LOW STRATUS EXPECTED AT DAYBREAK SATURDAY.
SHOWERS/STORMS SATURDAY SHOULD BE SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR REGION. THIS
MAY CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION.
KEY MESSAGE 2... SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
AS A MID/UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK, A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
CENTRAL NC FROM THE NORTH ON MONDAY, PASSING THROUGH THE REGION ON
TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, A WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS WILL PREVAIL,
WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER-80S TO LOWER-90S ON MONDAY BEFORE
BECOMING COOLER (WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL) FOR TUESDAY. PW
VALUES WILL BE AROUND 2-2.25 INCHES (125-150% OF NORMAL) BOTH DAYS
AS SW FLOW ALOFT BRINGS GULF MOISTURE INTO THE CAROLINAS. THIS
COMBINED WITH WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL BE BENEFICIAL FOR
THE ONGOING DROUGHT BUT COULD BRING LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WITH
HOURLY AMOUNTS OF 2+ INCHES POSSIBLE WHERE STORMS MERGE OR TRAIN.
THUS WPC HAS THE ENTIRE REGION IN A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 4) RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH A SLIGHT (LEVEL 2
OF 4) RISK OVER OUR FAR NORTH.
KEY MESSAGE 3... A CAD PATTERN LOOKS TO SET UP FROM MID TO LATE NEXT
WEEK, RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES, PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE, AND BELOW-NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES.
MID/UPPER TROUGHING WILL STRENGTHEN AND BUILD INTO THE EASTERN US
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MEANWHILE, ANOMALOUSLY STRONG SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE DOWN FROM SE CANADA AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
INTO THE LEE SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS, AS A SURFACE LOW DRIFTS NORTH
IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, THOUGH MODELS DIFFER SUBSTANTIALLY ON ITS
PLACEMENT. THIS WILL RESULT IN ROBUST N/NE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND A
LIKELY CAD PATTERN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. CURRENT
FORECAST HIGHS ARE IN THE UPPER-60S TO UPPER-70S, BUT SOME RAW
GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE GFS IS EVEN COOLER. FORECAST LOWS ARE GENERALLY
MID-50S TO MID-60S. POPS ARE IN THE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE RANGE, AND
GIVEN THE STABLE CAD REGIME, PRECIPITATION IS MORE LIKELY TO BE OF
THE STRATIFORM VARIETY (PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE) AS OPPOSED TO
CONVECTIVE.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 750 PM FRIDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD:
SHOWERS AND STORMS EAST AND SOUTH OF RDU AND FAY WILL LIKELY
DISSIPATE BY LATE EVENING. OTHERWISE, GENERALLY VFR CIGS UNTIL LATE
TONIGHT. THEN, IFR/LIFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING FAVORING 09Z THROUGH 14Z. CIGS WILL
LIFT RATHER SLOWLY TO MVFR THEN VFR BY 18Z OR SO. GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK: MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS APPEAR LIKELY TO DEVELOP SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. AFTER MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, EXPECT A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MVFR TO OCCASIONALLY IFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BADGETT/GREEN/DANCO
AVIATION...BADGETT/GREEN
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