228
FXUS62 KRAH 240502
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
102 AM EDT THU SEP 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM EARLIER FORECASTS.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 225 PM WEDNESDAY...
1) COLD AIR DAMMING AND BREEZY/COOL WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THU. DRY WEATHER AND INCREASING SUNSHINE WILL FOLLOW FOR FRI THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO ABOVE NORMAL THIS
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 225 PM WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... COLD AIR DAMMING AND BREEZY/COOL WEATHER WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THU. DRY WEATHER AND INCREASING SUNSHINE WILL FOLLOW
FOR FRI THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO
ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND.
WE'RE CURRENTLY IN THE THROES OF A ROBUST, CLASSICAL COLD AIR
DAMMING EVENT, FEATURING A STRONG PARENT HIGH (~1036 MB CENTRAL
PRESSURE) ANCHORED OVER S QUEBEC NOSING SOUTHWARD DOWN THROUGH
CENTRAL NC, WITH STEADY OVERRUNNING RAIN AND DRIZZLE OVER MOST OF
THE AREA. NW PIEDMONT SOUNDINGS (BOTH 12Z OBSERVED AND RAP
FORECASTS) SHOW SATURATION AND HIGH STABILITY THROUGHOUT THE LOWEST
1-1.5 KM, WITH A TIGHT MSLP GRADIENT AND ADVECTION OF COOL/DENSE AIR
RESULTING IN A STOUT NE WIND WITH PERIODIC GUSTS OVER 20 KTS. THIS
WEDGE REGIME, BLOCKED BY THE TERRAIN TO OUR W AND BY THE REMNANT
FRONTAL ZONE TO OUR S AND E, WILL BE MAINTAINED BY THIS ADVECTION OF
COOL AND LOW-DEWPOINT AIR THROUGH THU, DESPITE A VERY GRADUAL
INFILTRATION OF MORE DEEPLY DRIER AIR THROUGH THE 1-2 KM INTO OUR
AREA FROM THE NE AND SUBSEQUENT TREND OF DIMINISHING AND
INCREASINGLY SHALLOW MOIST UPGLIDE. RAIN/DRIZZLE CHANCES SHOULD
REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH AREAWIDE INTO THIS EVENING, THEN PERSIST MAINLY
ACROSS OUR W AND S LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THU, AS A SERIES OF
PERTURBATIONS ALOFT (EMANATING FROM THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY) TRACKS ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. TEMPS TODAY WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 60S OVER THE PIEDMONT AND MID
60S TO AROUND 70 ACROSS OUR FAR S AND E, AND HIGHS SHOULD BE
SIMILARLY COOL THU AS CLOUDS STAY LOCKED IN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
AREAWIDE. EXPECT HIGHS THU TO RANGE FROM LOW 60S NW TO THE LOW 70S
IN THE FAR SE, WHICH ARE ABOUT 10-15 DEG F BELOW THE NORMAL HIGHS
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WE'RE STILL SEEING A HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LOWS
IN THE MID-UPPER 40S OVER THE NW PIEDMONT THU NIGHT AND AGAIN FRI
NIGHT.
BY FRI, THE SLOW-MOVING OHIO VALLEY MID LEVEL LOW WILL HAVE SHIFTED
OVER NC AND BE PUSHING TO OUR E, AS MUCH LOWER PW SPREADS INTO
CENTRAL NC FROM THE N AND NNW. THE MORE DEEPLY DRIER AIR AND LOSS OF
DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SUNSHINE OVERALL,
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS MAY LINGER FOR A LONGER TIME ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST
FRI, COURTESY OF THE DEVELOPING INTENSE LOW JUST OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. AS THIS LOW WOBBLES AND DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTHWARD OFF
THE NORTHEAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THE CENTER OF THE WEAKENING
PARENT HIGH WILL RETROGRADE WSW INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BUT
CONTINUE TO EXTEND INTO OUR AREA. THIS WILL EQUATE TO GENERALLY FAIR
SKIES, DRY WEATHER, AND A WARMING TREND, FROM BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FRI
TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS BY SAT AND ABOVE NORMAL READINGS FOR SUN
THROUGH WED. HIGHS SHOULD BE BACK INTO THE 80S TUE/WED, ALTHOUGH
AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60S SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS
FROM BECOMING TOO UNCOMFORTABLE.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 100 AM THURSDAY...
THE REST OF THE NIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER NIGHT OF LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE AS THE COLD AIR DAMMING REGIME HOLDS OVER THE REGION.
EXPECT THE MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION, WITH A
FEW LOCATIONS POTENTIALLY HAVING BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITIES
FROM LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE THAT REMAINS INTO THE MORNING. IT APPEARS
THAT CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT AND SCATTER OUT TO MVFR AND THEN VFR THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT MODELS TYPICALLY STRUGGLE WITH HOW LONG THE CAD WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE, SO WOULDN'T BE SHOCKED IF RESTRICTIONS REMAIN LATER
INTO THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ALL
DAY UP TO AROUND 25 KTS, WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS EXPECTED FURTHER
EAST THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK: HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION AND FAVOR
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...LH/MWS
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