719
FXUS62 KRAH 241727
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
128 PM EDT THU SEP 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT IN LOWS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS.
* A DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT/DELAY IN POPS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS ON
WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 140 AM THURSDAY...
1) COLD AIR DAMMING REGIME LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON,
WITH ANOTHER DAY OF COOL TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT RAIN.
2) A PERIOD OF AUTUMNAL WEATHER ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH THE
COOLEST LOW TEMPERATURES SINCE EARLY JUNE IF NOT MID MAY WILL GIVE
WAY TO A WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S BY
WEDNESDAY.
3) ANOTHER EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH LIMITED RAIN CHANCES ARRIVING TOWARD THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 140 AM THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... COLD AIR DAMMING REGIME LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO THE
AFTERNOON, WITH ANOTHER DAY OF COOL TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT RAIN.
TODAY SHOULD BE THE LAST DAY OF THE CAD WEDGE ALLOWING FOR COOL, WET
CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL NC. A MID LEVEL LOW LOOKS TO SLOWLY MOVE
OVER CENTRAL NC THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR FORCING
FOR CONTINUED LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE IN MAINLY THE WEST AND SOUTH THIS
MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THEN, DRY AIR SHOULD MOVE IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST, HELPING ERODE THE CAD REGIME THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT AS THE LOW SHIFTS OFFSHORE. WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER
INTO AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON, ANOTHER DAY OF BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON LOOK TO REACH THE
LOW 60S IN THE NORTHWEST TO AROUND 70 IN THE EAST. TEMPERATURES
COULD ALSO REMAIN COOLER IF THE CAD REGIME TAKES LONGER TO DISSIPATE
THIS AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT, LOWS SHOULD DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S IN THE
NORTHWEST TO THE MID 50S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
ADDITIONALLY, A SURFACE LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN AND DEEPEN OFF THE NC COAST THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO STRENGTHEN, ALLOWING
FOR GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. 20-25 MPH GUSTS ARE MOST LIKELY,
BUT COULD REACH UP TO 30 MPH, ESPECIALLY AS YOU GO FURTHER EAST.
KEY MESSAGE 2... A PERIOD OF AUTUMNAL WEATHER ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WITH THE COOLEST LOW TEMPERATURES SINCE EARLY JUNE IF NOT MID MAY
WILL GIVE WAY TO A WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER
80S BY WEDNESDAY.
DEEP AND ANOMALOUSLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
ON FRIDAY WILL DRIVE A CHILLY AND DRY AIRMASS INTO THE REGION. LOW-
LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES ON FRIDAY MORNING WILL RANGE IN THE 1350S.
MORNING DEW POINTS IN THE 40S MAY MIX OUT INTO THE UPPER 30S WITH
DEEP AFTERNOON MIXING. IT SHOULD BE A BEAUTIFUL FALL DAY WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS AROUND 70. THE COOLEST MORNING SINCE THE FIRST
WEEK OF JUNE IF NOT MID MAY IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH LOWS
RANGING IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50. THESE LOWS RANGE ABOUT 6 TO 11
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.
THE AIRMASS ON SATURDAY WILL MODERATE WITH MORNING THICKNESS VALUES
WARMING 10 TO 15M YIELDING HIGHS IN THE MID 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. LOWS ON SUNDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY RANGE
IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ALTHOUGH IF RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS ARE MAXIMIZED, LOWS COULD BE COOLER AND MORE SIMILAR TO
SATURDAY MORNING. THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO
MORE NORTHWESTERLY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGHS MODERATING INTO
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WHICH IS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
THE FLOW WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTERLY ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH MORNING LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES WARMING INTO THE
1390S ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AND NEAR 1400M ON THURSDAY MORNING. THESE
VALUES WILL SUPPORT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S ON TUESDAY
AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ON WEDNESDAY WHICH IS ABOUT 6 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. LOWS WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND
RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A RETURN
OF SOME MUGGINESS TO THE AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 3... ANOTHER EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FROM FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH LIMITED RAIN CHANCES ARRIVING
TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
A DRY NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FROM FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK WILL RESULT IN FAIR WEATHER AND THE MAINTENANCE OF A DRY
AIR MASS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF AROUND 0.50 INCHES OR LESS
WHICH IS ABOUT 25% OF NORMAL ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH PW VALUES
RANGING UNDER 0.75 INCHES ON SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL MAINTAIN A
DRY PATTERN. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SPREADING ACROSS THE OH VALLEY
AND GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR STORMS
TO THE AREA LATE IN THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 128 PM THURSDAY...
THE MVFR STRATUS HAS BEEN SLOWER TO ERODE THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED,
THANKS TO AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FAVORING
LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE ACROSS THE TERMINALS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE
PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS. SATELLITE IMAGERY IS STARTING TO INDICATE
LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR WORKING SOUTH OUT OF VA AND OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST
PIEDMONT. HOWEVER, IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THIS EROSION TO FULLY
TRANSLATE EAST. GIVEN LATEST OBSERVATIONAL AND MODEL TRENDS, OPTED
TO TREND TO VFR A TAD LATER THAN THE 12Z TAF GUIDANCE, WITH 22Z IN
THE WEST AND 00-02Z IN THE EAST. THIS FORECAST MAY BE A LITTLE TOO
PESSIMISTIC, BUT OPTED FOR THE SLOWER EROSION IN THESE RESIDUAL CAD
REGIMES. SOME BRIEF IFR IS POSSIBLE IN LIGHT RAIN OVER THE TRIAD AND
FAY, BUT FOG IS NOT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN AND NE
FLOW STAYS ELEVATED. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE LATER TONIGHT,
BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE 15-22 KT RANGE OUT
OF THE NORTHEAST. EXPECT VFR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...LH/BLAES
AVIATION...KREN
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