079
FXUS62 KRAH 241945
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
345 PM EDT THU SEP 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* SMALL ADJUSTMENTS IN RAIN CHANCES REST OF TODAY, WITH A DELAY IN
CLOUD EROSION.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 345 PM THURSDAY...
1) COLD AIR DAMMING AND BREEZY/COOL WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO
TONIGHT. DRY WEATHER AND INCREASING SUNSHINE WILL FOLLOW FOR FRI
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO ABOVE
NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 345 PM THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... COLD AIR DAMMING AND BREEZY/COOL WEATHER WILL
PERSIST INTO TONIGHT. DRY WEATHER AND INCREASING SUNSHINE WILL
FOLLOW FOR FRI THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH TEMPS RETURNING
TO ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE COLD AIR DAMMING REGIME REMAINS IN PLACE TODAY, WITH
CONSIDERABLE LOW CLOUDS AND A STOUT, COOL SURFACE FLOW FROM THE NE
AND N FEEDING LOWER DEWPOINTS INTO THE REGION, ALTHOUGH PARTIAL
CLEARING IS TAKING PLACE IN THE FAR NORTHWEST. AN UPPER-LEVEL WAVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS HAS TRIGGERED SOME PATCHY BANDS OF
LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE INTO THE AFTERNOON, MAINLY ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS. THIS LIGHT RAIN HAS STARTED TO DISSIPATE IN
THE LAST FEW HOURS AS THE MID-LEVEL ENERGY STARTS TO SKIRT INTO SC
AND EVENTUALLY PUSHES OFFSHORE TONIGHT. AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO WORK
IN THIS EVENING, WE SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL EROSION OF THE LOW STRATUS,
MAINLY FROM WEST TO EAST, SLOWEST TO ERODE OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN.
GENERALLY LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ARE EXPECTED BY FRIDAY
MORNING.
THE SLOW-MOVING OHIO VALLEY MID LEVEL LOW WILL PUSH INTO THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRI, AS MUCH LOWER PW SPREADS
INTO CENTRAL NC FROM THE N AND NNW. THE MORE DEEPLY DRIER AIR AND
LOSS OF DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SUNSHINE
OVERALL, ALTHOUGH CLOUDS MAY LINGER FOR A LONGER TIME ACROSS OUR
NORTHEAST FRI, COURTESY OF THE DEVELOPING INTENSE LOW JUST OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. AS THIS LOW WOBBLES AND DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTHWARD
OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, THE CENTER OF THE WEAKENING PARENT HIGH WILL RETROGRADE WSW
INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BUT CONTINUE TO EXTEND INTO OUR AREA.
THIS WILL EQUATE TO GENERALLY FAIR SKIES, DRY WEATHER, AND A WARMING
TREND, FROM BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FRI TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS BY SAT
AND ABOVE NORMAL READINGS FOR SUN THROUGH THU. HIGHS SHOULD BE BACK
INTO THE 80S TUE/WED, ALTHOUGH AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO
AROUND 60S SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS FROM BECOMING TOO UNCOMFORTABLE.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 128 PM THURSDAY...
THE MVFR STRATUS HAS BEEN SLOWER TO ERODE THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED,
THANKS TO AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FAVORING
LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE ACROSS THE TERMINALS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE
PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS. SATELLITE IMAGERY IS STARTING TO INDICATE
LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR WORKING SOUTH OUT OF VA AND OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST
PIEDMONT. HOWEVER, IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THIS EROSION TO FULLY
TRANSLATE EAST. GIVEN LATEST OBSERVATIONAL AND MODEL TRENDS, OPTED
TO TREND TO VFR A TAD LATER THAN THE 12Z TAF GUIDANCE, WITH 22Z IN
THE WEST AND 00-02Z IN THE EAST. THIS FORECAST MAY BE A LITTLE TOO
PESSIMISTIC, BUT OPTED FOR THE SLOWER EROSION IN THESE RESIDUAL CAD
REGIMES. SOME BRIEF IFR IS POSSIBLE IN LIGHT RAIN OVER THE TRIAD AND
FAY, BUT FOG IS NOT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN AND NE
FLOW STAYS ELEVATED. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE LATER TONIGHT,
BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE 15-22 KT RANGE OUT
OF THE NORTHEAST. EXPECT VFR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...KREN/HARTFIELD
AVIATION...KREN
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