550
FXUS62 KRAH 091721
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
120 PM EDT FRI OCT 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* NO MAJOR CHANGES
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 1100 AM FRIDAY...
1) AS THE REMNANTS OF ISAIAS TRACK THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND
PUSH TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD, CENTRAL NC WILL EXPERIENCE
UNSETTLING WEATHER WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
2) UNSEASONABLY WARM, WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCE OF RAIN, NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
AS OF 1100 AM FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... AS THE REMNANTS OF ISAIAS TRACK THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND PUSH TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD, CENTRAL
NC WILL EXPERIENCE UNSETTLING WEATHER WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
DRIVEN BY STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT PEAKING BETWEEN SATURDAY EVENING
AND SUNDAY. MODELS SHOW A BRIEF LULL MIDDAY SUNDAY BEFORE A FINAL
BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS PASSES THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL CLEAR RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
STORM TOTALS ACROSS CENTRAL NC WILL AVERAGE 1 TO 2 INCHES, THOUGH
LOCALIZED URBAN OR POOR-DRAINAGE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. COLD AIR
DAMMING SET UP WILL KEEP TOTALS LOWER ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT (~0.5
TO 1 INCH), WHILE A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COAST WILL
RESULT IN LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND
COASTAL PLAIN.
THE SEVERE THREAT REMAINS LOW OVERALL DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY IN
A HIGH-SHEAR, LOW-CAPE ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER, A FEW ISOLATED STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, PRIMARILY ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN AREAS.
THE CAD WEDGE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS COOL AND DAMP OVER THE WEEKEND,
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S NW TO LOW 70S IN THE SE AND BREEZY
EASTERLY FLOW BEFORE SUNSHINE RETURNS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 2... UNSEASONABLY WARM, WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCE OF
RAIN, NEXT WEEK
IN THE MID/UPR-LEVELS, A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP AND
STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE W-CNTL GULF COAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK, THEN PROGRESS EWD AND ACROSS AND OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST. THE
MODELS SUGGEST IT WILL DO SO DOWNSTREAM OF A COMPLEX, SRN STREAM-
DOMINATED TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, WHICH WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY INFLUENCED BY/PHASED WITH A NRN STREAM TROUGH
FORECAST TO AMPLIFY FROM THE GULF OF AK TO THE UPR MS VALLEY/UPR
GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE SAME TIME. MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE AMPLITUDE
AND TIMING OF THAT TROUGH AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE ERN US NEXT
WEEKEND, WITH RELATED DECREASING FORECAST CONFIDENCE.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. THERE HAVE BEEN INDICATIONS IN RECENT DAYS'
MODEL GUIDANCE THAT A MOISTURE-STARVED BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
SETTLE ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK,
THEN STALL AND RETREAT NWD AHEAD OF A CYCLONE AND FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHING WITH, AND RELATED TO THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH ALOFT.
WHILE IT REMAINS UNCLEAR TO WHAT EXTENT THAT BACKDOOR FRONT MAY
PROGRESS INTO CNTL NC, ANY ASSOCIATED INFLUENCE AND POST-FRONTAL
COOLING WOULD BE FAVORED AND MOSTLY CONFINED TO THU. SHOULD THAT
BOUNDARY REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF CNTL NC, IT'S POSSIBLE THAT THE
UNSEASONABLY WARM PATTERN THAT WILL OTHERWISE EXTEND ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST WOULD SUPPORT WARMER-THAN-FORECAST AND NEAR RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN CNTL NC MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 120 PM FRIDAY...
IN A MOISTURE PLUME PRECEDING AND WELL DOWNSTREAM OF ISAIAS, VFR
CONDITIONS, WITH LOWERING HIGH THROUGH MID-LEVEL CEILINGS, ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. VIRGA OR VERY LIGHT, VFR RAIN AT
THE SURFACE MAY ACCOMPANY THOSE LOWERING CEILINGS OVERNIGHT-SAT
MORNING. CEILINGS WILL SUBSEQUENTLY LOWER THROUGH MVFR AND IFR RANGE,
WITH MOSTLY MVFR-VFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN LIGHT, STRATIFORM
RAIN, THROUGH THE END OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. NELY SURFACE WINDS MAY
GUST INTO THE TEENS TO NEAR 20S KTS AT TIMES THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON SAT.
OUTLOOK: RAIN WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATER SAT INTO
SAT NIGHT, WITH ASSOCIATED LIFR-IFR RESTRICTIONS AND MATURATION OF
COLD AIR DAMMING (CAD). A WAVE OF ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY ALSO
ACCOMPANY THE OTHERWISE STRATIFORM RAIN CHARACTER SAT NIGHT-SUN
MORNING, FAVORED AT FAY AND RWI, DURING WHICH TIME LOW-LEVEL WIND
SHEAR WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES. THE CAD AIR MASS AND
RELATED FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE ESPECIALLY OVER
THE PIEDMONT THROUGH SUN, WHILE THEY WILL LIKELY BE ERADICATED
ACROSS THE REST OF ERN AND E-CNTL NC (INCLUDING AT FAY AND RWI) BY
THE APPROACH OF A TRIPLE POINT/FRONTAL LOW AND PASSAGE OF A
PRECEDING WARM/WEDGE FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER BAND OF
CONVECTION WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT TRAILING THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND PROGRESS ACROSS CNTL NC THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY TO MID EVENING SUN.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...CA/MWS
AVIATION...MWS
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