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FXUS62 KRAH 092317
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
717 PM EDT FRI OCT 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* NO MAJOR CHANGES
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 245 PM FRIDAY...
1) THE REMNANTS OF ISAIAS WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLING WEATHER OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH RAINFALL SATURDAY EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT.
2) UNSEASONABLY WARM, WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCE OF RAIN, NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
AS OF 245 PM FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... THE REMNANTS OF ISAIAS WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLING
WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND WITH RAINFALL SATURDAY EVENING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ISAIAS WILL TRACK THROUGH THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND TRANSITION TO EXTRATROPICAL OVER THE WEEKEND AND WILL
BRING DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD CENTRAL NC. AS THE
SYSTEM APPROACHES, SOME HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A CONTINUOUS
RADAR REFLECTIVITY SHIELD SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY SATURDAY. HOWEVER, MEASURABLE RAINFALL AT THE SURFACE WILL
INITIALLY BE MINIMAL DUE TO A LOW LEVEL DRY LAYER. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW BETTER SATURATION ABOVE THAT DRY LAYER IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS, INDICATING THAT ANY EARLY PRECIPITATION ALOFT WILL EVAPORATE
AS VIRGA WELL BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. RAIN FALLING ALL THE WAY
TO THE GROUND WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL SUSTAINED EVAPORATIVE COOLING AND
MOISTENING FULLY SATURATE THIS SUB-CLOUD LAYER, WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN
OVERSPREADING THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING AS STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT
TAKES HOLD.
AS THE CAD WEDGE DEVELOPS WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW
ENGLAND, IT WILL KEEP CONDITIONS COOL AND DAMP THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW/MID 60S ACROSS THE NW
PIEDMONT TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE SE. THE COOL WEDGE ACTS AS A
STABILIZING BUFFER, SUPPRESSING ANY CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY AND
KEEPING THE RAINFALL RATES CONFINED GENERALLY TO AREAS ACROSS THE
SOUTH AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW A BRIEF LULL AROUND MIDDAY SUNDAY, WITH A FINAL BROKEN BAND OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING THROUGH DURING LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WHILE THE SEVERE THREAT REMAINS LOW OVERALL DUE TO LIMITED
CAPE IN A SOMEWHAT HIGH-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT, AN ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORM CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
ACROSS THE EASTERN PIEDMONT, SANDHILLS, AND COASTAL PLAIN IF THE
WARM FRONT LIFTS FARTHER NORTH THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME. ADDITIONALLY, A BRIEF TORNADO IS POSSIBLE AS WELL MAINLY
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL NC WILL AVERAGE 1 TO 2 INCHES
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THE COLD AIR DAMMING SETUP WILL KEEP
TOTALS SOMEWHAT LOWER ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT BETWEEN 0.5 TO 1
INCH, WHEREAS SECONDARY LOW-PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE COAST WILL
LEAD TO LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
AND COASTAL PLAIN. ALTHOUGH MOST OF CENTRAL NC REMAINS IN A MARGINAL
RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING, THE HIGHEST RELATIVE FLOODING THREATS
REMAIN FOCUSED TO THE WEST OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND TO THE EAST ALONG
THE COAST, THOUGH LOCALIZED URBAN OR POOR-DRAINAGE FLOODING REMAINS
LOCAL. PRECIPITATION WILL EXIT RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM, CLEARING OUT CLOUDS AND BRINGING A
RETURN TO SUNSHINE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 2... UNSEASONABLY WARM, WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCE OF
RAIN, NEXT WEEK
IN THE MID/UPR-LEVELS, A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP AND
STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE W-CNTL GULF COAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK, THEN PROGRESS EWD AND ACROSS AND OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST. THE
MODELS SUGGEST IT WILL DO SO DOWNSTREAM OF A COMPLEX, SRN STREAM-
DOMINATED TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, WHICH WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY INFLUENCED BY/PHASED WITH A NRN STREAM TROUGH
FORECAST TO AMPLIFY FROM THE GULF OF AK TO THE UPR MS VALLEY/UPR
GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE SAME TIME. MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE AMPLITUDE
AND TIMING OF THAT TROUGH AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE ERN US NEXT
WEEKEND, WITH RELATED DECREASING FORECAST CONFIDENCE.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. THERE HAVE BEEN INDICATIONS IN RECENT DAYS'
MODEL GUIDANCE THAT A MOISTURE-STARVED BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
SETTLE ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK,
THEN STALL AND RETREAT NWD AHEAD OF A CYCLONE AND FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHING WITH, AND RELATED TO THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH ALOFT.
WHILE IT REMAINS UNCLEAR TO WHAT EXTENT THAT BACKDOOR FRONT MAY
PROGRESS INTO CNTL NC, ANY ASSOCIATED INFLUENCE AND POST-FRONTAL
COOLING WOULD BE FAVORED AND MOSTLY CONFINED TO THU. SHOULD THAT
BOUNDARY REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF CNTL NC, IT'S POSSIBLE THAT THE
UNSEASONABLY WARM PATTERN THAT WILL OTHERWISE EXTEND ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST WOULD SUPPORT WARMER-THAN-FORECAST AND NEAR RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN CNTL NC MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 715 PM FRIDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND INTO EARLY TONIGHT, WITH HIGH-LEVEL CIGS
LOWERING TO MID-LEVEL THROUGH TONIGHT. AS NOTED EARLIER, VIRGA OR
VERY LIGHT, VFR RAIN AT THE SURFACE MAY ACCOMPANY THOSE LOWERING
CEILINGS OVERNIGHT-SAT MORNING. CEILINGS WILL SUBSEQUENTLY LOWER
THROUGH MVFR AND IFR RANGE, WITH MOSTLY MVFR-VFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS IN LIGHT, STRATIFORM RAIN, THROUGH AROUND MID-DAY SAT.
RAIN SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BETWEEN 16Z AND THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD, ACCOMPANIED BY IFR-LIFR RESTRICTIONS. SOME
HIGH RES GUIDANCE HINTS AT SOME INTERMITTENT IMPROVEMENT IF THERE
ARE BREAKS IN THE RAIN LATE, BUT GENERALLY EXPECT THE ABOVE TO
PREVAIL. LIGHT NELY WINDS THIS EVE SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE TONIGHT
AND THROUGH THE DAY SAT, WITH GUSTS INTO THE TEENS AREA-WIDE TO
POSSIBLY LOW-MID 20S DURING THE DAY SAT.
OUTLOOK: A WAVE OF ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE
OTHERWISE STRATIFORM RAIN CHARACTER SAT NIGHT-SUN MORNING, FAVORED
AT FAY AND RWI, DURING WHICH TIME LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES. THE CAD AIR MASS AND RELATED FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE ESPECIALLY OVER THE PIEDMONT
THROUGH SUN, WHILE THEY WILL LIKELY BE ERADICATED ACROSS THE REST OF
ERN AND E-CNTL NC (INCLUDING AT FAY AND RWI) BY THE APPROACH OF A
TRIPLE POINT/FRONTAL LOW AND PASSAGE OF A PRECEDING WARM/WEDGE FRONT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER BAND OF CONVECTION WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP
ALONG THE COLD FRONT TRAILING THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND PROGRESS
ACROSS CNTL NC THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY TO MID EVENING SUN.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...CA/MWS
AVIATION...10/MWS
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