709
FXUS62 KRAH 110706
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
308 AM EDT SUN OCT 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* THE GREATEST RISK FOR SHORT-TRACK TORNADOES APPEARS TO BE FROM THE
TRIANGLE TO THE NORTH AND EAST, ROUGHLY FROM RALEIGH TO GOLDSBORO
TO ROCKY MOUNT/HENDERSON AND NORTHEAST INTO ROANOKE RAPIDS.
* THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT IS FAVORED FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM TODAY.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 308 AM SUNDAY...
1) SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS LATE THIS MORNING
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WILL BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF, SHORT-TRACK
TORNADOES AND STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS.
2) MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM, BEFORE A SIGNIFICANT
COOLDOWN NEXT WEEKEND. LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 308 AM SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WILL BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF,
SHORT-TRACK TORNADOES AND STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS.
THE REMNANTS OF ISAIAS ARE PRESENTLY ACROSS EASTERN TN. WITH TIME,
THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC THIS
EVENING AND EVENTUALLY OFF NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. A
SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP NEAR CHARLOTTE
THIS MORNING, TRACKING INTO THE NW PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
REACHING CENTRAL VA THIS EVENING. AS THIS DOES SO, A WARM FRONT
PRESENTLY ACROSS SC WILL LIFT NORTH THIS MORNING, AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
OVERALL, THERE HAS BEEN MINIMAL CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY LIES IN OVERALL COVERAGE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS. SPC HAS MAINTAINED A LEVEL 2 SLIGHT RISK FOR
EASTERN AREAS OF CENTRAL NC, FROM THE TRIANGLE/SANDHILLS EASTWARD
AND A LEVEL 1 MARGINAL RISK ACROSS THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT. THE LATEST HREF/REFS SOLUTIONS ARE INDICATING A MORE
FOCUSED TORNADO THREAT ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST PIEDMONT INTO VA,
CLOSER TO THE TRIPLE POINT AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. HOWEVER, IN
THIS ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND CLOCKWISE TURNING,
A BRIEF TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST NEARLY ANYWHERE IN CENTRAL NC.
THE GREATEST SEVERE RISK IS FAVORED FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM TODAY, BASED
ON A SUITE OF ENSEMBLE/MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE TIMING OF THE COLD
FRONT/DRY SLOT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, A MOISTURE-RICH ENVIRONMENT WILL
EXIST WITH LOW/MID 70S DEWPOINTS, SUPPORTING 1000-1500 J/KG OF
MLCAPE. THIS AXIS OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR OVERLAPS MOST FAVORABLY
FROM THE TRIANGLE/SANDHILLS INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN.
CAM SOLUTIONS INDICATE A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING
EAST-NORTHEAST IN THIS TIME FRAME. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO
COULD HAPPEN ANYWHERE, THE GREATEST RISK FOR SHORT-TRACK TORNADOES
APPEARS TO BE FROM THE TRIANGLE TO THE NORTH AND EAST, ROUGHLY FROM
RALEIGH TO GOLDSBORO TO ROCKY MOUNT/HENDERSON AND NORTHEAST INTO
ROANOKE RAPIDS. IN THIS REGION, FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE LONG
CURVED HODOGRAPHS SUPPORTIVE OF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS. OUTSIDE OF THE
TORNADO RISK, STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
ALL OF CENTRAL NC. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GREATLY DIMINISH AFTER 6
PM AS ACTIVITY RACES NE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
KEY MESSAGE 2... MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM, BEFORE
A SIGNIFICANT COOLDOWN NEXT WEEKEND. LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US (IN BETWEEN
TROUGHING OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC THAT WILL ABSORB THE REMNANTS OF
ISAIAS AND A CLOSED LOW OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST) WILL BRING
MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER TO CENTRAL NC FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WORKWEEK. AT THE SURFACE, A LOW WILL TRACK EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY,
DROPPING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING TEMPERATURES
TO START THE WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER-70S TO LOWER-80S ON
MONDAY AND LOWER-TO-MID-80S ON TUESDAY. DUE TO A SLOWER TREND WITH
THE LOW'S TRANSLATION EASTWARD, THE FRONT NOW DOESN'T LOOK LIKE IT
WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY. THIS
RESULTS IN A MUCH WARMER FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND POTENTIAL RECORD
OR NEAR RECORD HIGHS, WHICH ARE NOW EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID-TO-
UPPER-80S, AND LOWS IN THE LOWER-TO-MID-60S. THURSDAY'S TEMPERATURES
WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT, BUT THEY SHOULD TURN
AT LEAST A BIT MORE SEASONABLE, ALBEIT STILL WARMER THAN NORMAL. THE
FRONT WILL BE MOISTURE-STARVED AND DEVOID OF ANY UPPER SUPPORT FOR
PRECIPITATION WITH THE RIDGE IN PLACE, SO IT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY
WITH JUST SOME ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER.
A MORE VIGOROUS NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL THEN DIVE DOWN FROM
CANADA IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGION LATE IN THE
WEEK AND POTENTIALLY INTERACT WITH THE WESTERN US TROUGH, WHICH
SHOULD HELP SUPPRESS THE SOUTHEAST US RIDGE OVER THE WEEKEND.
GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAT THE LOW WILL HELP LIFT THE
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON FRIDAY, BUT
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE PATTERN STILL EXIST, WITH THE GFS
CONTINUING TO SHOW A PHASING SOLUTION THAT RESULTS IN A MUCH
DEEPER/SLOWER TROUGH (AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW) COMPARED TO THE
ECMWF. THE LOW WILL DRAG A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL
NC, BUT THE EXACT TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN, SOMETIME ON FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY. REGARDLESS THE BEST FORCING LOOKS TO BE WELL TO OUR NORTH
SO ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WOULD BE LIGHT, AND POPS ARE ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE AT BEST. A SIGNIFICANT COOLDOWN TO BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES APPEARS LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN, AND PATCHY FROST MAY EVEN BE A CONCERN ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND/OR SUNDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 146 AM SUNDAY...
A MIXTURE OF LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE NEAR-
TERM OF THE TAF PERIOD. THESE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN IN
PLACE UNTIL 15-18Z, SLOWEST TO RISE TO MVFR IN THE TRIAD TERMINALS
(GSO/INT) AND EARLIEST AT FAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
AROUND THE REGION, MOST FOCUSED OVER THE TRIAD TERMINALS. THIS
SHOULD REMAIN THE CASE UNTIL MID-MORNING, THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME BRIEF HEAVY SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH ANY ONE TERMINAL PRIOR TO
THAT. OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS, A MOIST LOW-LEVELS WILL PROMOTE FOG
DEVELOPMENT, WITH THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE AT GSO/INT EARLY THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER, CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY LIFR/IFR VISBYS ANYWHERE.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH A CORRESPONDING COLD FRONT. MOST HIGH-RES MODEL
SOLUTIONS INDICATE A SOMEWHAT BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
TRACKING EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT ROUGHLY BETWEEN 15-21Z.
CONFIDENCE WAS HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP FOR STORMS,
THOUGH THE MOST COVERAGE MAY END UP BEING NEAR RDU/FAY/RWI. AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES, MVFR WILL LIFT TO VFR AND PREVAIL THROUGH THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS WILL EXIST TIMES, STARTING OUT EAST-
SOUTHEAST AND SWITCHING AROUND TO WEST-SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK: A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY EVENING,
PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...KREN/JD
AVIATION...KREN
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