980
FXUS62 KRAH 112005
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
405 PM EDT SUN OCT 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* A SMALL CHANCE OF A SHOWER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
* LOWERED DEW POINTS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
INCREASED MIXING.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 355 PM SUNDAY...
1) MUCH QUIETER WEATHER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A BRIEF
SHOWER POSSIBLE.
2) NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK.
3) A BIG WARMUP IS EXPECTED FOR MID WEEK BEFORE A SIGNIFICANT COOL
DOWN BY THE WEEKEND WITH FROST POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 355 PM SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... MUCH QUIETER WEATHER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH A BRIEF SHOWER POSSIBLE.
THE TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR ALL OF CENTRAL NC AND THE
DEEP CONVECTION HAS EXITED THE AREA AS MID AND UPPER LAYER
DRYING IS SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA. A MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW
CONTINUES WITH SOME WEAK RESIDUAL INSTABILITY ACROSS THE EASTERN
PIEDMONT, SANDHILLS AND VA BORDER COUNTIES. A FEW SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP IN THIS ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT THE
COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED. ALL OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD WIND DOWN
BY AROUND SUNSET WITH FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2... NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
A NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK SUPPORTING A GENERALLY FAIR AND DRY WEATHER
PATTERN. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT TRIES TO DROP INTO THE REGION
ON THURSDAY BUT ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL LIKELY RESTRAIN THE FRONT ACROSS WV AND VA. PRECIPITATION
WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE LIMITED AND LIKELY NORTH OF THE
AREA. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOISTURE
STARVED AND LITTLE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. THE GENERALLY DRY
WEST AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL UNFORTUNATELY KEEP THE AREA
PRECIPITATION FREE.
KEY MESSAGE 3... A BIG WARMUP IS EXPECTED FOR MID WEEK BEFORE A
SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN BY THE WEEKEND WITH FROST POSSIBLE.
THE LARGE RIDGE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH WILL ALLOW MORNING
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES TO RANGE FROM 1400 TO 1410M ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL SUPPORT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO POSSIBLY
UPPER 80S WHICH ARE ABOUT 12 TO 17 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH MORNING LOW
LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES BY SUNDAY MORNING RANGING IN THE 1310 TO
1320M RANGE. IT'S WORTH NOTING THAT THE OPERATION GFS IS
SHOWING ITS COLD BIAS WITH ITS FORECASTING LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES ON SUNDAY MORNING FROM 1295 TO 1305M WITH THE GFS
MOS PROVIDING LOWS OF 33/35 AT ROXBORO AND RALEIGH! NOT READY TO
JUMP ON THAT DEGREE OF COLD BUT A CONSENSUS APPROACH SUPPORTS
LOWS INTO THE UPPER AND POSSIBLY MID 30S WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A
FROST RISK.
AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 255 PM SUNDAY...
THE BROKEN LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE
QUICKLY EAST AND IS EXITING THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. THE DEEP
CONVECTION HAS ALREADY CLEARED THE TERMINALS AND SHOULD CLEAR THE
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN BY 20Z. IN ITS WAKE, A BROAD AREA OF SCT TO
BKN CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH BASES OF 2.5 TO 4KFT PERSIST IN THE MOIST
AND WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT BEHIND THIS BAND THIS EVENING AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT. CAN'T RULE OUT A ROGUE A SHOWER OR EVEN A MODEST
THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 23Z BUT THE COVERAGE WILL BE VERY LIMITED. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER WITH PERIODS OF MAINLY SCT TO
OCCASIONALLY BROKEN FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS.
MAINLY SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AT AROUND 10KTS WITH SOME GUSTS
TO 20KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND SUNSET WITH WINDS RELAXING A
BIT OVERNIGHT AND GUSTS BECOMING LESS FREQUENT AS THE WINDS VEER TO
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. ON MONDAY AS MIXING COMMENCES, WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 10KTS WITH GUSTS OF 18 TO 22KTS.
OUTLOOK: GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
MOST OF THE WORK WEEK.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BLAES
AVIATION...BLAES
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page