646
FXUS62 KRAH 121927
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
327 PM EDT MON OCT 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* MINOR DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 320 PM MONDAY...
1) MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORKWEEK WILL BE UNSEASONABLY
WARM AND DRY WITH RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AND PERHAPS
THURSDAY.
2) A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY WITH A SIGNIFICANT COOLDOWN FOR THE WEEKEND AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FROST.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 320 PM MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORKWEEK WILL BE UNSEASONABLY
WARM AND DRY WITH RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AND PERHAPS
THURSDAY.
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER TX ON TUESDAY
WILL SLOWLY BUILD EAST DURING THE WORK WEEK, BECOME CENTERED OVER
THE SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY AND THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT OFF THE COAST ON
FRIDAY. THE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS WILL BE NOTED BY 500 MB
HEIGHTS OF AROUND 593-594DM DURING MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH THE MAIN
CORE OF THE WESTERLIES ANTICYCLONICALLY RIDING ATOP THE RIDGE IN THE
MO AND OH VALLEYS INTO THE NORTHEAST. A BACK DOOR FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO DROP INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BUT
GUIDANCE HAS INCREASINGLY SUGGESTED IT WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH
ACROSS WV AND VA. MORNING LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES WILL WARM FROM
1380S THIS MORNING, THE 1390S ON TUESDAY MORNING, THE 1400S ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNING. THESE THICKNESS VALUES WILL SUPPORT
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WHICH WILL EASILY THREATEN RECORD
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY DESPITE A LITTLE MORE CLOUD
COVER. THESE HIGHS ARE ALSO ABOUT 12 TO 19 DEGREES ABOUT AVERAGE!
KEY MESSAGE 2... A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY WITH A SIGNIFICANT COOLDOWN FOR THE WEEKEND AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FROST.
A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL
DRIVE A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CAROLINAS ON FRIDAY WITH THE
FRONT MOVING OFF THE COAST ON FRIDAY NIGHT. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
RECOVERS A BIT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH PW VALUES REACHING 125 TO
150% OF NORMAL BUT THE BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT AND INSTABILITY WILL
BE LOCATED NORTH OF OUR AREA SO PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE ACROSS
CENTRAL NC WILL BE LIMITED.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES CRASH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND
REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY SUNDAY MORNING
THICKNESS VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 1320S OR 1330S AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HIGHS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SHOULD
RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S WHICH IS ABOUT 6 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE. LOWS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNING WILL RANGE IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. THESE LOWS ARE ABOUT 3 TO 8 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE. A FEW OF THE TYPICALLY COLDER LOCATIONS MAY REACH
THE MID 30S AND EXPERIENCE SOME PATCHY FROST.
AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 200 PM MONDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE OF FAIR WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL NC
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE AREA HAS RESULTED
IN SOME DIURNALLY FORCED STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS IN THE AREA PRIMARILY
OF THE SCT VARIETY. THE CLOUDS GENERALLY HAVE BASES OF AROUND 3-5KFT
AND ARE MOST COMMON IN THE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE THEY MAY BRIEFLY
BECOME BKN BETWEEN 19 AND 21Z. THESE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE TOWARD
SUNSET WITH JUST SOME SCT TO POSSIBLY BKN CIRRUS CLOUDS EXPECTED FOR
THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 8 TO 12 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 16 TO 24KTS KTS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL RELAX TOWARD SUNSET AN BECOME VERY LIGHT
NORTHWESTERLY AT LESS THAN 5KTS OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BACK AROUND TO
LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY AT 3 TO 7KTS ON TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK: GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
MOST OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. SOME PATCHY DAYBREAK FOG IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN ON WEDNESDAY OR
THURSDAY MORNING. A GENERALLY DRY COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
AREA ON FRIDAY WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
OCTOBER 13: KRDU: 89/1954
OCTOBER 14: KGSO: 85/1975 KRDU: 86/1985 KFAY: 90/1954
OCTOBER 15: KGSO: 87/1985 KRDU: 88/1985
OCTOBER 16: KGSO: 85/1953 KRDU: 86/1925
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
OCTOBER 12: KGSO: 64/2017
OCTOBER 15: KGSO: 63/1985 KRDU: 66/1942
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BLAES
AVIATION...BLAES
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