112
FXUS62 KRAH 140605
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
205 AM EDT WED OCT 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 125 PM TUESDAY...
1) NEAR-RECORD TO RECORD WARMTH IS FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES.
2) A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING, BRINGING SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER WEATHER FOR THE
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 125 PM TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... NEAR-RECORD TO RECORD WARMTH IS FORECAST THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
HIGH PRESSURE, BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVELS, WILL BE THE
PRIMARY FEATURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. WHILE A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL APPROACH SOUTHERN VIRGINIA ON
THURSDAY, IT APPEARS THAT THE COLDER AIR AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD
REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF NORTH CAROLINA. WEDNESDAY IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO BE THE WARMEST DAY. THE LATEST DAY ON THE CALENDAR THAT
RALEIGH HAS EVER REACHED 90 DEGREES WAS ON OCTOBER 10, 1907, BUT
THAT COULD BE IN JEOPARDY AS THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR 91
DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 14. AS FOR GREENSBORO, WEDNESDAY'S
FORECAST IS 87 DEGREES, AND THEIR LATEST 90 DEGREE DAY WAS OCTOBER
12, 1904. FINALLY, OUR LAST CLIMATE SITE, FAYETTEVILLE, HAS A
FORECAST OF 88 DEGREES, AND THEIR LATEST 90 DEGREE DAY WAS OCTOBER
26, 1940.
KEY MESSAGE 2... A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, BRINGING SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER WEATHER FOR
THE WEEKEND.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY,
MOVE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY, AND INTO EASTERN CANADA
ON SATURDAY. THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH MOISTURE LOCALLY FOR THE FRONT
TO WORK WITH, AND THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE NO HIGHER THAN 30
PERCENT, WITH MOST LOCATIONS REMAINING DRY. WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
STILL BEING 3+ DAYS AWAY, THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO EXACTLY WHEN
THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA - AN EARLIER
FRONTAL PASSAGE WOULD ALLOW MORE MIXING AND STRONGER WIND GUSTS TO
OCCUR, WHILE A LATER FRONTAL PASSAGE WOULD OCCUR DURING A MORE
STABLE TIME OF DAY AND RESULT IN WIND GUSTS NOT AS STRONG. THE
CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR THE FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, WHICH COULD BRING WIND GUSTS ANYWHERE BETWEEN 25 AND 35
MPH.
WHETHER OR NOT THERE ARE STRONG WIND GUSTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING,
THERE WILL BE A STARK CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. AFTER
HIGHS IN THE 80S THIS WEEK, SATURDAY'S AND SUNDAY'S HIGHS WILL ONLY
BE IN THE 60S - AND A FEW ISOLATED LOCATIONS MAY NOT RISE OUT OF THE
50S DESPITE WIDESPREAD SUNSHINE. AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT, WITH VALUES RANGING FROM THE MID
30S TO THE MID 40S. RURAL AREAS OUTSIDE THE TRIAD WILL LIKELY BE THE
COLDEST, AND SOME ISOLATED FROST CANNOT BE RULED OUT. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S
AND LOWS IN THE 40S.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 200 AM WEDNESDAY...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS, AND LIGHT SWLY SURFACE WINDS AROUND HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTH ATLANTIC STATES, WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS CNTL NC THROUGH TONIGHT. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO VFR WILL BE A
CHANCE OF SHALLOW RADIATION FOG THIS MORNING AT RWI DUE TO LOCAL
EFFECTS, AND ALSO NEAR FAY AND ESPECIALLY POINTS EWD TO THE COAST OF
THE CAROLINAS.
OUTLOOK: A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE ACROSS VA AND INTO NRN NC
THU. IFR-MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN THE POST-FRONTAL
AIRMASS AND PROBABLY JUST TO THE NORTH OF CNTL NC TAF SITES THU
NIGHT. STRONG AND GUSTY NWLY SURFACE WINDS WILL RESULT BEHIND A
POWERFUL COLD FRONT FRI NIGHT.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
OCTOBER 14:
KGSO: 85/1975
KRDU: 86/1985
KFAY: 90/1954
OCTOBER 15:
KGSO: 87/1985
KRDU: 88/1985
KFAY: 91/1931
OCTOBER 16:
KGSO: 85/1953
KRDU: 86/1925
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
OCTOBER 15:
KGSO: 63/1985
KRDU: 66/1942
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...GREEN
AVIATION...MWS
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