353
FXUS62 KRAH 150559
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
158 AM EDT THU OCT 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* INCREASED CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND PARTICULARLY SATURDAY
MORNING WITH A COLD FRONT
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 210 PM WEDNESDAY...
1) THE POTENTIAL FOR RECORD HEAT CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY.
2) A COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGS A DECISIVE END TO THE RECORD
HEAT, BRINGING IN WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST BY SUNDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 210 PM WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... THE POTENTIAL FOR RECORD HEAT CONTINUES THROUGH
FRIDAY.
AS OF 2PM, RDU HAD ALREADY WARMED TO 88 DEGREES, BEATING THE
PREVIOUS DAILY RECORD HIGH OF 86 SET IN 1985. IN ADDITION, GSO HAD
WARMED TO 85 DEGREES, TYING THE DAILY RECORD HIGH SET IN 1975. FAY
IS 87 DEGREES AND WILL FLIRT WITH THEIR DAILY RECORD HIGH OF 90
DEGREES. THIS IS PRIMARILY DUE TO AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES, CONSIDERING SURFACE WIND HAS
BEEN MINIMAL OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TODAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR RECORD
HEAT ON THURSDAY MAY BE TEMPERED BY A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY NEAR THE
MASON-DIXON LINE THAT WILL DROP SOUTH TOMORROW INTO VIRGINIA, AND
SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS FRONT DRIFTING INTO NORTHEASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A 10 DEGREE DIFFERENCE IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES BETWEEN RALEIGH AND ROANOKE RAPIDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON,
ALTHOUGH ALL THREE CLIMATE SITES (GREENSBORO, RDU, FAYETTEVILLE) ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE FRONT. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WITH THIS FRONT ARE NEAR ZERO, BUT THE FRONT WILL RETREAT TO
THE NORTH ON FRIDAY, ALLOWING THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TO RETURN TO
THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS. ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD SUNSHINE ON
FRIDAY, WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 2... A COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGS A DECISIVE END TO
THE RECORD HEAT, BRINGING IN WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
WEEKEND AND THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST BY SUNDAY MORNING.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SLIGHTLY LATER THAN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST, AND SHOULD NOW BE CROSSING CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
AFTER SUNSET FRIDAY EVENING. ALTHOUGH WINDS COULD BE GUSTY WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE ITSELF, THIS TIMING WILL REDUCE THE OVERALL WIND
GUSTS DUE TO LESS MIXING IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODELS ARE SHOWING
A NOTICEABLE INCREASE FOR THE CHANCE OF RAIN WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE, SPECIFICALLY LOOKING AT SATURDAY MORNING, ALTHOUGH RAINFALL
TOTALS WOULD NOT BE HEAVY. SATURDAY'S HIGHS WILL BE 20 TO 25 DEGREES
COLDER THAN FRIDAY, WITH ISOLATED COLDER SPOTS ONLY RISING INTO THE
UPPER 50S, WITH MOST LOCATIONS REACHING THE LOW TO MID 60S. SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHTS SHOULD HAVE SIMILAR LOW TEMPERATURES, WITH MOST
LOCATIONS FALLING INTO THE 40S, BUT SOME SHELTERED LOCATIONS
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FROST.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 AND LOWS AROUND 50.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 155 AM THURSDAY...
LIGHT SWLY WINDS WILL PERSIST AHEAD OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT MAY
SHIFT SURFACE WINDS TO LIGHT NELY/ELY AT PIEDMONT SITES AND RWI LATE
THIS MORNING. THAT BOUNDARY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT THAT WILL SETTLE INTO THE FAR NE PIEDMONT AND NRN COASTAL
PLAIN OF NC LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING. IFR-MVFR CEILINGS
ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP BEHIND THAT FRONT, INCLUDING AT RWI, NEAR THE
END OF THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. WHILE THE FRONT AND POST-FRONTAL CEILINGS
ARE LIKELY TO HOLD JUST TO THE NORTH OF PIEDMONT SITES, BY PERHAPS
10-30 MILES, A SLIGHT SWWD SHIFT OF THE LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY
WOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASING LIKELIHOOD FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AT
PIEDMONT SITES TONIGHT AS WELL.
OUTLOOK: GUSTY SWLY SURFACE WINDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT ON FRI, FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF STRONG AND GUSTY NWLY
SURFACE WINDS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THAT FRONT FRI NIGHT. THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT THE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SHALLOW, BROKEN LINE
OF CONVECTION (DEVOID OF LIGHTNING) AS IT MOVES ACROSS CNTL NC FRI
NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY AN AREA OF POST-FRONTAL, STRATIFORM RAIN THAT MAY
LINGER INTO THE DAY SAT.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
OCTOBER 15:
KGSO: 87/1985
KRDU: 88/1985
KFAY: 91/1931
OCTOBER 16:
KGSO: 85/1953
KRDU: 86/1925
KFAY: 90/1925
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
OCTOBER 15:
KGSO: 63/1985
KRDU: 66/1942
KFAY: 67/1928
OCTOBER 16:
KGSO: 66/1947
LATEST 90 F DAYS:
GSO: 10/12/1904
RDU: 10/10/1907
FAY: 10/26/1940
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...GREEN
AVIATION...MWS
CLIMATE...RAH
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