441
FXUS62 KRAH 151831
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
230 PM EDT THU OCT 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* NO APPRECIABLE CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST
UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 227 PM THURSDAY...
1) NEAR-RECORD HEAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.
2) A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS CENTRAL NC FRI EVENING,
WITH A SIGNIFICANT COOLDOWN FOR THE WEEKEND. THERE IS STILL SOME
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST SUN MORNING AND AGAIN MON MORNING.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 227 PM THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... NEAR-RECORD HEAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.
WHILE A FRONT ACROSS VIRGINIA HAS DIPPED INTO NORTH-EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA, TEMPERATURES HAVE STILL CLIMBED INTO THE 80S NEAR THE
VA/NC BORDER, WITH MID TO UPPER 80S ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. AS OF
1PM, ALL THREE CLIMATE SITES ARE WITHIN 5 DEGREES OF THEIR
RESPECTIVE DAILY RECORD HIGHS, AND RECORDS COULD BE TIED OR
SURPASSED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE FRONT SHOULD RETREAT
BACK INTO VIRGINIA OVERNIGHT, ALLOWING FOR UNIFORM LOW TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. A STRONG SOUTHWEST WIND ON FRIDAY WILL RESULT
IN GUSTS BETWEEN 20-30 MPH, AND WILL GIVE ONE MORE CHANCE TO REACH
RECORD HIGHS BETWEEN 85 AND 90 DEGREES. WHILE CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON, IT APPEARS THAT ANY RAIN SHOULD HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNSET.
KEY MESSAGE 2... A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS CENTRAL NC
FRI EVENING, WITH A SIGNIFICANT COOLDOWN FOR THE WEEKEND. THERE IS
STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST SUN MORNING AND AGAIN MON
MORNING.
A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING A DRASTIC PATTERN-SHIFT
THIS WEEKEND AND BRING THE GREATEST IMPACT TO THE SENSIBLE WEATHER,
ESPECIALLY FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. THIS FRONT WILL BE DRIVEN BY A DEEP
SURFACE LOW < 1000 MB RACING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FRI EVENING AND
EQUALLY, IF NOT MORE SO, ANOMALOUS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXCEEDING
1035 MB DIVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ELONGATING UP INTO THE
MID-MS VALLEY SAT AFTERNOON. HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A
HIGH-POP/LOW-QPF SIGNAL AS ANAFRONTAL SHOWERS/SPRINKLES APPEARS
LIKELY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT INTO THE NORTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN WHERE STRONG FGEN THROUGH THE LOWER/MID-LVLS OVERLAPS
INTENSE H5 HEIGHT FALLS (> 100M FALLS IN 12HRS) AND DPVA.
THIS PATTERN WILL ALSO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN NARROW COLD-
FRONTAL RAINBAND (NCFR), WHICH COULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF ENHANCED
WINDS AND WIND GUSTS ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE NCFR WITH
RAPID PRESSURES RISES IN ITS WAKE. MOMENTUM TRANSFER AT THE TOP OF
THE MIXED LAYER IN POINT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST GUSTS MAY REACH IN EXCESS
OF 40 MPH WITH THE NCFR PASSAGE.
NWP GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FLIP-FLOP ON WHETHER THE BASAL PORTION OF
THE STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PINCH OFF AND BECOME A
CLOSED/CUTOFF LOW AND ITS PROXIMITY TO THE CAROLINA COAST. AIGFS
DETERMINISTIC RUNS LINE UP WITH THE AIFS ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS AND
FAVOR A FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST DEVELOPMENT OF THE CLOSED/CUTOFF LOW
BETWEEN THE SOUTHEAST COAST, BAHAMAS, AND BERMUDA (PHYSICS-BASED
GUIDANCE FAVOR ITS DEVELOPMENT IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE CAROLINA
COAST), WHICH WOULD FAVOR LESS RAIN CHANCES AND COOLER OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING LOWS SUN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 227 PM THURSDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING THEN SOME LOWER CIGS COULD
FLIRT WITH THE SITES FROM THE NORTH AND EAST FOR PART OF FRIDAY
MORNING (EXCEPT FOR KFAY). KRWI HAS THE GREATEST CHANCE OF THIS WITH
IFR CIGS POSSIBLE AND PERHAPS SOME MVFR VSBYS. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT
VRB THIS AFTERNOON AND CALM THIS EVENING. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT OUT OF
THE SW AND INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE FRIDAY MORNING INTO AFTERNOON TO
AROUND 9-12 KTS WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS OF 18-20 KTS. SOME SCATTERED
ALTO COVERAGE COULD DEVELOP AS WELL DURING THE DAY (STAYING MOSTLY
CLEAR FOR KFAY).
OUTLOOK: RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AT INT/GSO,
WITH RAIN LIKELY AT RDU/RWI/FAY. IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY WILL REMAIN VFR, BUT THE WIND WILL VEER TO THE NORTH
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25 KT, AND WIDESPREAD N GUSTS UP
TO 30 KT ARE FORECAST ON SATURDAY. N GUSTS BETWEEN 15-25 KT SHOULD
CONTINUE ON SUNDAY BEFORE DROPPING UNDER 20 KT ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
OCTOBER 15:
KGSO: 87/1985
KRDU: 88/1985
KFAY: 91/1931
OCTOBER 16:
KGSO: 85/1953
KRDU: 86/1925
KFAY: 90/1925
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
OCTOBER 15:
KGSO: 63/1985
KRDU: 66/1942
KFAY: 67/1928
LATEST 90 F DAYS:
GSO: 10/12/1904
RDU: 10/14/2026
FAY: 10/26/1940
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...GREEN/AS
AVIATION...BAKER/GREEN
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