188
FXUS62 KRAH 160047
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
840 PM EDT THU OCT 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* NO APPRECIABLE CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST
UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 227 PM THURSDAY...
1) NEAR-RECORD HEAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.
2) A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS CENTRAL NC FRI EVENING,
WITH A SIGNIFICANT COOLDOWN FOR THE WEEKEND. THERE IS STILL SOME
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST SUN MORNING AND AGAIN MON MORNING.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 227 PM THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... NEAR-RECORD HEAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.
WHILE A FRONT ACROSS VIRGINIA HAS DIPPED INTO NORTH-EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA, TEMPERATURES HAVE STILL CLIMBED INTO THE 80S NEAR THE
VA/NC BORDER, WITH MID TO UPPER 80S ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. AS OF
1PM, ALL THREE CLIMATE SITES ARE WITHIN 5 DEGREES OF THEIR
RESPECTIVE DAILY RECORD HIGHS, AND RECORDS COULD BE TIED OR
SURPASSED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE FRONT SHOULD RETREAT
BACK INTO VIRGINIA OVERNIGHT, ALLOWING FOR UNIFORM LOW TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. A STRONG SOUTHWEST WIND ON FRIDAY WILL RESULT
IN GUSTS BETWEEN 20-30 MPH, AND WILL GIVE ONE MORE CHANCE TO REACH
RECORD HIGHS BETWEEN 85 AND 90 DEGREES. WHILE CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON, IT APPEARS THAT ANY RAIN SHOULD HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNSET.
KEY MESSAGE 2... A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS CENTRAL NC
FRI EVENING, WITH A SIGNIFICANT COOLDOWN FOR THE WEEKEND. THERE IS
STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST SUN MORNING AND AGAIN MON
MORNING.
A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING A DRASTIC PATTERN-SHIFT
THIS WEEKEND AND BRING THE GREATEST IMPACT TO THE SENSIBLE WEATHER,
ESPECIALLY FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. THIS FRONT WILL BE DRIVEN BY A DEEP
SURFACE LOW < 1000 MB RACING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FRI EVENING AND
EQUALLY, IF NOT MORE SO, ANOMALOUS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXCEEDING
1035 MB DIVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ELONGATING UP INTO THE
MID-MS VALLEY SAT AFTERNOON. HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A
HIGH-POP/LOW-QPF SIGNAL AS ANAFRONTAL SHOWERS/SPRINKLES APPEARS
LIKELY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT INTO THE NORTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN WHERE STRONG FGEN THROUGH THE LOWER/MID-LVLS OVERLAPS
INTENSE H5 HEIGHT FALLS (> 100M FALLS IN 12HRS) AND DPVA.
THIS PATTERN WILL ALSO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN NARROW COLD-
FRONTAL RAINBAND (NCFR), WHICH COULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF ENHANCED
WINDS AND WIND GUSTS ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE NCFR WITH
RAPID PRESSURES RISES IN ITS WAKE. MOMENTUM TRANSFER AT THE TOP OF
THE MIXED LAYER IN POINT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST GUSTS MAY REACH IN EXCESS
OF 40 MPH WITH THE NCFR PASSAGE.
NWP GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FLIP-FLOP ON WHETHER THE BASAL PORTION OF
THE STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PINCH OFF AND BECOME A
CLOSED/CUTOFF LOW AND ITS PROXIMITY TO THE CAROLINA COAST. AIGFS
DETERMINISTIC RUNS LINE UP WITH THE AIFS ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS AND
FAVOR A FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST DEVELOPMENT OF THE CLOSED/CUTOFF LOW
BETWEEN THE SOUTHEAST COAST, BAHAMAS, AND BERMUDA (PHYSICS-BASED
GUIDANCE FAVOR ITS DEVELOPMENT IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE CAROLINA
COAST), WHICH WOULD FAVOR LESS RAIN CHANCES AND COOLER OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING LOWS SUN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 840 PM THURSDAY...
AN AREA OF MVFR STRATUS WITH CIGS OF AROUND 1.5KFT CONTINUES TO
BUILD SOUTHWEST INTO NC FROM SOUTHEASTERN VA AND NORTHEASTERN NC.
THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
COASTAL PLAIN AND THE NORTHEAST PIEDMONT TONIGHT. THEY WILL REACH
THE KRWI TERMINAL BY 02Z AND THREATEN THE KRDU TERMINAL BETWEEN 05
AND 07Z. THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULDN'T MAKE IT INTO THE SANDHILLS OR THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT AND THE KGSO/KINT/KFAY TERMINALS SHOULD STAY VFR
OVERNIGHT AND ON FRIDAY. THE STRATUS SHOULD WANE TOWARD AND AFTER
DAYBREAK AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND DIURNAL MIXING COMMENCES WITH
VFR CONDITIONS AREA WIDE BY MID MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED VSBY AND CIG
RESTRICTIONS MAY MOVE INTO THE TRIAD FROM THE NORTHWEST AT THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS GENERALLY BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AT 5KTS OR LESS. WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE ON
FRIDAY MORNING AND VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AT 8 TO 12 KTS WITH
GUSTS OF 16 TO 22KTS.
OUTLOOK: A COLD FRONT WILL TRIGGER A BROKEN AND NARROW LINE OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME POST FRONTAL LIGHT RAIN THAT WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON FRIDAY EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME VSBY AND CIG RESTRICTIONS,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO NORTHWESTERLY AT 10 TO 20 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ON
SATURDAY. GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY BEFORE
DIMINISHING ON MONDAY. THERE IS A LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE AREA TO DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH COULD EXTEND THE
PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND POSSIBLY BRING SOME CLOUDS/RAIN TO
EASTERN AREAS ALTHOUGH THE PROBABILITIES WITH THIS SCENARIO ARE
LIMITED. -BLAES
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
OCTOBER 15:
KGSO: 87/1985
KRDU: 88/1985
KFAY: 91/1931
OCTOBER 16:
KGSO: 85/1953
KRDU: 86/1925
KFAY: 90/1925
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
OCTOBER 15:
KGSO: 63/1985
KRDU: 66/1942
KFAY: 67/1928
LATEST 90 F DAYS:
GSO: 10/12/1904
RDU: 10/14/2026
FAY: 10/26/1940
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...GREEN/AS
AVIATION...BLAES
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