493
FXUS62 KRAH 160615
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
215 AM EDT FRI OCT 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* A BACKDOOR FRONT AND POST-FRONTAL LOW OVERCAST HAS DRIFTED A
LITTLE FARTHER SWWD THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST AND WILL RESULT IN
LIFR-IFR CEILINGS AT ALL CNTL NC TAF SITES EXCEPT PROBABLY FAY
THIS MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 227 PM THURSDAY...
1) NEAR-RECORD HEAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.
2) A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS CENTRAL NC FRI EVENING,
WITH A SIGNIFICANT COOLDOWN FOR THE WEEKEND. THERE IS STILL SOME
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST SUN MORNING AND AGAIN MON MORNING.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 227 PM THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1... NEAR-RECORD HEAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.
WHILE A FRONT ACROSS VIRGINIA HAS DIPPED INTO NORTH-EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA, TEMPERATURES HAVE STILL CLIMBED INTO THE 80S NEAR THE
VA/NC BORDER, WITH MID TO UPPER 80S ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. AS OF
1PM, ALL THREE CLIMATE SITES ARE WITHIN 5 DEGREES OF THEIR
RESPECTIVE DAILY RECORD HIGHS, AND RECORDS COULD BE TIED OR
SURPASSED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE FRONT SHOULD RETREAT
BACK INTO VIRGINIA OVERNIGHT, ALLOWING FOR UNIFORM LOW TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. A STRONG SOUTHWEST WIND ON FRIDAY WILL RESULT
IN GUSTS BETWEEN 20-30 MPH, AND WILL GIVE ONE MORE CHANCE TO REACH
RECORD HIGHS BETWEEN 85 AND 90 DEGREES. WHILE CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON, IT APPEARS THAT ANY RAIN SHOULD HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNSET.
KEY MESSAGE 2... A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS CENTRAL NC
FRI EVENING, WITH A SIGNIFICANT COOLDOWN FOR THE WEEKEND. THERE IS
STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST SUN MORNING AND AGAIN MON
MORNING.
A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING A DRASTIC PATTERN-SHIFT
THIS WEEKEND AND BRING THE GREATEST IMPACT TO THE SENSIBLE WEATHER,
ESPECIALLY FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. THIS FRONT WILL BE DRIVEN BY A DEEP
SURFACE LOW < 1000 MB RACING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FRI EVENING AND
EQUALLY, IF NOT MORE SO, ANOMALOUS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXCEEDING
1035 MB DIVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ELONGATING UP INTO THE
MID-MS VALLEY SAT AFTERNOON. HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A
HIGH-POP/LOW-QPF SIGNAL AS ANAFRONTAL SHOWERS/SPRINKLES APPEARS
LIKELY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT INTO THE NORTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN WHERE STRONG FGEN THROUGH THE LOWER/MID-LVLS OVERLAPS
INTENSE H5 HEIGHT FALLS (> 100M FALLS IN 12HRS) AND DPVA.
THIS PATTERN WILL ALSO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN NARROW COLD-
FRONTAL RAINBAND (NCFR), WHICH COULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF ENHANCED
WINDS AND WIND GUSTS ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE NCFR WITH
RAPID PRESSURES RISES IN ITS WAKE. MOMENTUM TRANSFER AT THE TOP OF
THE MIXED LAYER IN POINT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST GUSTS MAY REACH IN EXCESS
OF 40 MPH WITH THE NCFR PASSAGE.
NWP GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FLIP-FLOP ON WHETHER THE BASAL PORTION OF
THE STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PINCH OFF AND BECOME A
CLOSED/CUTOFF LOW AND ITS PROXIMITY TO THE CAROLINA COAST. AIGFS
DETERMINISTIC RUNS LINE UP WITH THE AIFS ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS AND
FAVOR A FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST DEVELOPMENT OF THE CLOSED/CUTOFF LOW
BETWEEN THE SOUTHEAST COAST, BAHAMAS, AND BERMUDA (PHYSICS-BASED
GUIDANCE FAVOR ITS DEVELOPMENT IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE CAROLINA
COAST), WHICH WOULD FAVOR LESS RAIN CHANCES AND COOLER OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING LOWS SUN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 215 AM FRIDAY...
A BACKDOOR FRONT AND POST-FRONTAL LOW OVERCAST HAS DRIFTED A
LITTLE FARTHER SWWD THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST AND WILL RESULT IN
LIFR-IFR CEILINGS AT ALL CNTL NC TAF SITES EXCEPT PROBABLY FAY
THIS MORNING. THE NWD RETREAT OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC TODAY SHOULD CAUSE THE OVERCAST TO DISPERSE AND LIFT AROUND
12Z, WITH FOLLOWING VFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY SWLY WINDS THAT WILL
DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
INVOF INT/GSO BY ~21-22Z, THEN LINGER UNTIL A COLD FRONT AND GUSTY
NWLY SURFACE WINDS MOVES THROUGH CNTL NC LATER THIS EVENING-TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK: AN AREA OF STRATIFORM, ANAFRONTAL RAIN WILL BLOSSOM BEHIND
THE PASSING COLD FRONT LATER TONIGHT INTO SAT, WITH RELATED LOW VFR
TO MVFR RESTRICTIONS, AS AN INTENSE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND JET
STREAK PIVOT TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER TO NLY
AND REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYTIME THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, IN S TIGHT MSL PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE THAT WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND COASTAL LOW PRESSURE
THAT WILL DEEPEN AND MEANDER OF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS. SHOULD
SURFACE WINDS DIMINISH AS EXPECTED EACH NIGHT, A RISK OF LOW-LEVEL
WIND SHEAR WILL EXIST BOTH SAT AND SUN NIGHT.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
OCTOBER 16:
KGSO: 85/1953
KRDU: 86/1925
KFAY: 90/1925
LATEST 90 F DAYS:
GSO: 10/12/1904
RDU: 10/14/2026
FAY: 10/26/1940
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...GREEN/AS
AVIATION...MWS
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