229
FXUS65 KREV 171256
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
456 AM PST SUN NOV 17 2024
UPDATE
WE HAVE ISSUED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR LAKE TAHOE AND PYRAMID
LAKE, WHICH WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING UNTIL 4 AM
MONDAY MORNING. WEST GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER GUSTS OF 40-45 MPH ON LAKE TAHOE
EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 234 AM PST SUN NOV 17 2024/
SYNOPSIS...
* LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARRIVE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT CHILLY TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
* GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, CREATING
CHOPPY LAKE WATERS AND IMPACTING AVIATION TRAVEL.
* DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS EXPECTED AROUND MIDWEEK FOR TAHOE, NE
CALIFORNIA, AND FAR NW NEVADA WITH DRY CONDITIONS LIKELY
ELSEWHERE.
DISCUSSION...
TODAY WILL BE A MOSTLY PLEASANT DAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER
40S AND 50S, BUT THE ARRIVAL OF A QUICK-MOVING STORM WILL BRING
INCREASED BREEZES, PERIODS OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AND ANOTHER DOSE
OF CHILLY TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
TIMING OF STRONGEST WINDS WITH THIS STORM WILL BE A BIT ABNORMAL AS
THEY BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND PEAK BETWEEN 10 PM
TONIGHT AND 4 AM MONDAY MORNING. GUSTS ALONG THE SIERRA CREST WILL
REACH 60-80 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH DOWN IN THE TAHOE BASIN
AND SIERRA FRONT. BE PREPARED FOR CHOPPY LAKE WATERS AND BUMPY
FLIGHTS IN AND OUT OF REGIONAL AIRPORTS. WINDS WILL ARE EXPECTED
TO EASE UP AROUND MID-MORNING, BUT BRISK NORTHWEST BREEZES WILL
LIKELY STICK AROUND THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY.
A FEW PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS MAY BEGIN AS EARLY AS 3-4 PM IN NW
LASSEN/N WASHOE COUNTY, BUT SHOWER ACTIVITY INCREASES IN EARNEST
AFTER 7-8 PM ALONG AND AHEAD OF A NE-SW DRAPED COLD FRONT. RAIN OR
PERHAPS A RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL ACCOMPANY ANY LATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS
FOR SIERRA COMMUNITIES NEAR LAKE LEVEL BEFORE SWITCHING TO LIGHT
SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS STORM WILL BE MUCH DRIER THAN THE PREVIOUS
WITH TOTAL SNOWFALL OF 3-6" ALONG TAHOE BASIN RIDGES. LOWER
ELEVATION SIERRA COMMUNITIES (E.G., TRUCKEE, SOUTH LAKE TAHOE,
MAMMOTH LAKES) WILL LIKELY SEE A DUSTING WITH A 10-20% CHANCE OF 1+"
OF NEW SNOW IN TIME FOR THE MONDAY AM COMMUTE. BE PREPARED FOR SLICK
ROADS AND SLOW DOWNS MONDAY MORNING IF TRAVELING IN THE SIERRA.
IN WESTERN NEVADA, PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF A FEW
HUNDREDTHS AND CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH OF US-50. THE EXCEPTION TO
THIS WILL BE A CORRIDOR FROM THE GREATER RENO-CARSON CITY-MINDEN
AREA TOWARDS FERNLEY/FALLON WHERE LATEST CAMS SHADOW OUT SHOWERS
ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THIS ISN'T TO SAY THAT A FEW DROPS OF RAIN OR
EARLY MORNING SNOWFLAKES WON'T OCCUR HERE, BUT THIS SHADOW EFFECT
WILL FURTHER LIMIT PRECIPITATION FROM AN ALREADY MOISTURE-STARVED
STORM.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE JUST AS COLD AS THIS PAST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE 30S AND 40S. WHILE MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN DRY AFTER MONDAY, THE FORECAST BECOMES A BIT TRICKY AS A
PSEUDO-STATIONARY TROUGH IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC MAY ALLOW FOR
PERIODIC SHOWERS EACH DAY NEXT WEEK. AS OF NOW, BEST CHANCES
(40-70% AT TIMES) WILL FAVOR FROM THE TAHOE BASIN NORTHWARD INTO
NE CALIFORNIA AND FAR NW NEVADA, AREAS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST MAY
SEE SOME SHOWERS DEPENDING ON HOW FAR THE STORM TRACK DEVIATES
SOUTHWARD. ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO DISLODGE THIS TROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND, WHICH WOULD BE THE NEXT BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
-SALAS
AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF TODAY BEFORE FLIGHT
CONDITIONS DETERIORATE THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY, OWING TO THE
ARRIVAL OF OUR NEXT STORM. PERIODS OF LOWERED CIGS/VIS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION ARE EXPECTED FOR KTRK/KTVL FROM OCCASIONAL SHOWERS/LOW
CLOUD COVER, ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 03Z AND 09Z TONIGHT. LITTLE TO NO
RUNWAY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM FOR ALL TERMINALS.
FL100 WINDS INCREASE TO 40-50 KTS BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z FROM THE TAHOE
BASIN INTO THE SIERRA FRONT WITH SURFACE GUSTS REACHING 25-35 KTS
FOR SIERRA TERMINALS AND KRNO/KCXP/KMEV OVERNIGHT. PERIODS OF
TURBULENCE AND LLWS CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
BEFORE WEAKENING WINDS MITIGATE ANY ISSUES AROUND 12Z MONDAY.
-SALAS
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM PST MONDAY
NVZ002-004.
CA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM PST MONDAY
CAZ072.
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