583
FXUS65 KREV 172243
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
243 PM PST SUN NOV 17 2024
SYNOPSIS
* LIGHT VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS START TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT LEADING TO CHOPPY LAKE WATERS AND IMPACTS TO AVIATION
INTERESTS.
* MEANWHILE, CHILLY TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.
* CHANCES OF SHOWERS RETURN MIDWEEK FOR TAHOE, NORTHEAST CA, AND
FAR NORTHWEST NV WITH DRY CONDITIONS LIKELY ELSEWHERE. THE NEXT
BIG SYSTEM ARRIVES ON THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
IT HAS BEEN A CHILLY AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY, AND IT
LOOKS LIKE SIMILAR CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA PER THE CAMS. PLUS THE RADAR IS ALREADY SEEING SOME OF THESE
SHOWERS IN NORTHERN WASHOE AND LASSEN COUNTY. WEATHER CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT AS WE HAVE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT
WILL BE AFFECTING THE AREA TONIGHT BRINGING GUSTY WINDS, VALLEY
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW ABOVE 5-6 KFT. EXPECT SHOWERS AND WINDS TO TAPER
OFF THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE
REGION.
ACCUMULATIONS ASSOCIATED WITH TONIGHT'S STORM ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT IN WESTERN NV VALLEYS INCLUDING THE SIERRA FRONT. LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SIERRA. CURRENTLY, THERE IS A
30-70% CHANCE FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION GREATER THAN 1 INCH FOR
SIERRA COMMUNITIES; NE CA HAS A 10-40% CHANCE OF SEEING THE SAME
AMOUNTS. LIQUID EQUIVALENTS IN WESTERN NV WILL BE LESS THAN 0.1
INCHES, AND THE EASTERN NV BASIN AND RANGE MAY HAVE UP TO 0.2
INCHES. I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW
DOWN TO VALLEY FLOORS, THOUGH WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION.
THOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW FREEZING BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT, THE AIR BEHIND IT IS DRY. ANYWAY, ROADS WILL BE
SLICK, AND POSSIBLY ICY IN SOME LOCATIONS FOR THE AM COMMUTE,
ESPECIALLY IF TRANSITING THROUGH THE SIERRA. THEREFORE, IT WOULD
BE A GOOD DAY TO LEAVE SLIGHTLY EARLY TO AVOID ANY SLOW DOWNS.
GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT WHICH IS A BIT OUT OF THE NORM. THIS WILL RESULT IN GUSTY
WINDS STARTING SOMETIME AFTER 7 PM THIS EVENING. WEST TO SOUTHWEST
GUSTS UP TO 30-40 MPH ACROSS WESTERN NV, NE CA AND OVER SIERRA
COMMUNITIES. THE SIERRA CREST WILL HAVE GUSTS IN THE 60-80 MPH
RANGE WITH SOME PEAKS OBSERVING STRONGER GUSTS.
CONDITIONS QUICKLY IMPROVE ON MONDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE
QUITE CHILLY THROUGH TUESDAY, DUE TO THE COLD AIRMASS STAYING PUT
UNTIL THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION BY MID-WEEK. IMPACTS
APPEAR TO BE MINIMAL AT THE MOMENT, ESPECIALLY FOR WESTERN NV,
WHERE CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY DRY AND COOL. IT IS A
DIFFERENT STORY FOR THE SIERRA AND NE CA, WHERE PERIODS OF SHOWERS
ARE LIKELY THROUGH LATE WEEK. PRETTY MUCH THE CENTER OF THE LOW
REMAINS ALMOST STATIONARY IN THE NORTHERN EASTERN PACIFIC, PUSHING
AN AR INTO NORTHERN CA. HOWEVER, WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH
SPILLOVER AT THE MOMENT. ALTHOUGH, MODELS IN THE LATEST RUN HAVE
INCREASED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. SO, WE WILL BE TAKING A CLOSER
LOOK OVER THE NEXT FEW RUNS TO SEE IF THE TREND REMAINS. AT THE
MOMENT, THERE IS A MODERATE POSSIBILITY FOR A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF LASSEN AND CENTRAL PLUMAS
COUNTY ON WEDNESDAY AS THERE IS A 50-70% CHANCE OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION GREATER THAN 4 INCHES ABOVE 5000 FT. OTHERWISE, SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR LIGHT (BELOW AN INCH) IF ANY AT ALL FOR THE
REST OF THE AREA. WINDS ALSO PICK UP AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS INTENSIFY, RESULTING IN GUSTS OVER 30 MPH FOR THE
VALLEYS, AND OVER 60 MPH IN THE SIERRA CREST. GUSTS OVER 40 MPH
HAVE A 20-50% CHANCE OF OCCURRING OVER WESTERN NV AND SIERRA
VALLEYS.
ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES THIS WEEKEND WHEN THE UPPER TROUGH FINALLY
PUSHES THROUGH THE WEST COAST, INTRODUCING A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR
AR CONDITIONS OVER THE SIERRA. THE TREND IS LOOKING WETTER FOR THE
SIERRA, BUT IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT TIMING AND LOCATION
OF IMPACTS. ANYWAYS, BE PREPARED FOR ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM THIS
WEEKEND.
-CRESPO
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, THEN
CONDITIONS DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT. PERIODS OF MVFR ARE LIKELY FOR
THE SIERRA DUE TO LOWER CIGS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS, AS WELL
AS LOWER VIS DUE TO SNOW. NV TERMINALS WILL HAVE LOWER CIGS, LIKELY
TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE MVFR. HOWEVER, -SHRA MAY LEAD TO BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR FOR NV TERMINALS. VERY LIGHT TO NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED
IN MOST TERMINALS. HOWEVER, KTRK AND KTVL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 6-12Z WITH A 50-70% CHANCE OF AN INCH OF
SNOW. CHANCES DROP TO 10% FOR 2 INCHES OR GREATER.
FL100 WINDS INCREASE TO 40-50 KTS BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z FROM THE TAHOE
BASIN INTO THE SIERRA FRONT WITH SURFACE GUSTS REACHING 25-35 KTS
FOR SIERRA TERMINALS AND KRNO/KCXP/KMEV OVERNIGHT. PERIODS OF
TURBULENCE AND LLWS CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TOO, BEFORE
WEAKENING WINDS MITIGATE ANY ISSUES AROUND AND 12Z MONDAY.
-CRESPO/SALAS
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM PST MONDAY
NVZ002-004.
CA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM PST MONDAY
CAZ072.
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