153
FXUS65 KREV 152107
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
107 PM PST SUN DEC 15 2024
SYNOPSIS
* A QUICK MOVING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN, SNOW AND BREEZY
WINDS MONDAY.
* VALLEY INVERSIONS AND AREAS OF FOG MAY RETURN TUESDAY TO
FRIDAY.
* AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN MAY DEVELOP BY THE START TO NEXT
WEEKEND WITH POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS, RAIN, AND
SNOW THROUGH CHRISTMAS.
DISCUSSION
A QUICK BUT POTENTIALLY DYNAMIC WEATHER SYSTEM IS SCHEDULED TO
REACH NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA EARLY MONDAY MORNING, IMPACT THE TAHOE
BASIN BY MID-LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
DIMINISHING AS IT TRACKS SOUTH INTO MONO COUNTY MONDAY EVENING.
GUSTY WINDS ARE THE MAIN IMPACT WITH GUSTS OF 80 MPH OR MORE OVER
SIERRA RIDGES WITH 30-40 MPH GUSTS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE
SIERRA AND ACROSS WESTERN NV. PLAN ON IMPACTS TO RECREATION AROUND
THE TAHOE BASIN MONDAY.
SNOWFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LIMITED BY THE SPEED AND ITS
ARRIVAL DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER, SIMULATIONS SHOW
POTENTIAL FOR A BURST OF RAIN/SNOW AND SNOWFALL RATES OF 0.5-1 IN/HR
AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTH BETWEEN LASSEN COUNTY AND THE TAHOE
BASIN. RAIN/SNOW LINES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM ABOUT
5000-6000 FT TO 6000-7000 FT WITH MOST SNOW IMPACTS TO MOUNTAIN
PASSES.
BEHIND THIS WEATHER SYSTEM, HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP OVER THE
GREAT BASIN TUESDAY WITH INCREASING VALLEY INVERSIONS. THIS WILL
LIMIT SMOKE DISPERSION FOR ANY PLANNED PILE BURNS AND ALLOW
POLLUTANT BUILD IN NEAR URBAN AREAS.
LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEKEND INTO CHRISTMAS, SIMULATIONS ARE
FAVORING AN ACTIVE PATTERN INTO THE WEST COAST. THE MAIN STORM
TRACK WITH AR MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE JUST TO OUR NORTH, BUT THERE
IS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST ONE OR TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS
IMPACTING THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NV DURING PEAK HOLIDAY TRAVEL
PERIOD. THE AR INFLUENCE AND MAIN STORM TRACK TO OUR NORTH FAVORS
WARMER STORMS WITH RAIN/SNOW LINES AS HIGH AS 7000-9000 FT. BRONG
AVIATION
QUICK MOVING WEATHER SYSTEM ARRIVES BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH
MOUNTAIN WAVE/TURBULENCE AND LLWS ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN
NV. RAIN AND SNOW WITH MFR/IFR CONDITIONS REACH WESTERN LASSEN
COUNTY BY 12 UTC, SPREADING SOUTH INTO THE TAHOE BASIN AROUND 15-18
UTC. A BURST OF HEAVY SNOW/RAIN MAY IMPACT THE TAHOE TERMINALS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. FOR THE WESTERN NV TERMINALS INCLUDING KRNO PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE 30-50% WITH LIGHT RAIN AS THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION
TYPE. THERE IS ABOUT A 10% CHANCE SNOW WILL OCCUR AT RNO-CXP-MEV
WITH MINIMAL IF ANY ACCUMULATION.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOG MAY REDEVELOP IN NORTHERN SIERRA VALLEYS
INCLUDING KTRK TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN
VALLEY INVERSIONS FOR MID-WEEK. BRONG
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
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